Detecting language using up to the first 30 seconds. Use `--language` to specify the language Detected language: English [00:00.000 --> 00:02.560] anywhere and any way you want. [00:02.560 --> 00:05.040] Learn more at Xfinity.com. [00:05.040 --> 00:23.160] Another poll in Iowa shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul leading the Republican field. [00:23.160 --> 00:24.160] Good evening. [00:24.160 --> 00:29.960] I'm Jim Lera and I'm Jeffrey Brown on the news hour tonight from Des Moines, Judy Woodruff [00:29.960 --> 00:33.200] has the latest on the GOP race. [00:33.200 --> 00:39.160] With just three days left until the presidential caucuses, more than a third of Iowa Republicans [00:39.160 --> 00:42.040] say they still don't know whom they'll vote for. [00:42.040 --> 00:47.760] So candidates and their organizations are working overtime to get their supporters out. [00:47.760 --> 00:53.360] Judy talked with five of those undecided islands about what will determine their choices [00:53.360 --> 00:54.960] on Tuesday night. [00:54.960 --> 00:59.960] Plus Mark Shields here and David Brooks in Iowa analyzed the week's news. [00:59.960 --> 01:07.360] In Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago reports on the surprising rise of poverty in the suburban [01:07.360 --> 01:11.720] neighborhoods of one of the nation's wealthiest counties. [01:11.720 --> 01:12.720] It's exploded. [01:12.720 --> 01:18.760] It has gone from something that was rarely encountered in this community to an issue [01:18.760 --> 01:20.920] that we encounter every day. [01:20.920 --> 01:26.080] And race wise looks at marriage trends in America as fewer couples tie the knot and those [01:26.080 --> 01:29.000] who do are older than ever. [01:29.000 --> 01:32.680] It's all ahead on tonight's news hour. [01:32.680 --> 01:39.240] Major funding for the PBS News Hour has been provided by intelligent computing technology [01:39.240 --> 01:44.120] is making its way into everything for cars, to retail signs, to hospitals, creating new [01:44.120 --> 01:46.240] and riching experiences. [01:46.240 --> 01:49.480] Through Intel's philosophy of investing for the future, we're helping to bring these new [01:49.480 --> 01:53.920] capabilities to market, we're investing billions of dollars in R&D around the globe [01:53.920 --> 01:58.600] to help create the technologies that we hope will be the heart of tomorrow's innovations. [01:58.600 --> 02:02.880] I believe that by investing today in technological advances here at Intel, we can help make [02:02.880 --> 02:08.280] a better tomorrow. [02:08.280 --> 02:15.040] And by BNSF Railway, the William and Flora Hula Foundation, working to solve social and [02:15.040 --> 02:20.360] environmental problems at home and around the world. [02:20.360 --> 02:27.600] And with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. [02:27.600 --> 02:35.200] This program was made possible by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and by contributions [02:35.200 --> 02:39.680] to your PBS station from viewers like you. [02:39.680 --> 02:43.920] Thank you. [02:43.920 --> 02:48.720] Republican presidential candidate spent another long day hunting for votes in Iowa. [02:48.720 --> 02:52.840] They were heading into the final weekend before the presidential election season officially [02:52.840 --> 02:57.240] opens with Tuesday night's caucuses. [02:57.240 --> 03:02.160] The weather turned colder and windy, but Mitt Romney warmed to his audience as another [03:02.160 --> 03:07.800] new poll this one from NBC Marist showed him pacing the field. [03:07.800 --> 03:12.520] If you can get out here in this cold and this win and a little bit of rain coming down, [03:12.520 --> 03:16.360] then you can surge it out at Tuesday night and you can surf find a few people to bring [03:16.360 --> 03:17.360] with you. [03:17.360 --> 03:22.240] One key supporter showed up today, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, campaigning with [03:22.240 --> 03:25.000] Romney in West to Moin. [03:25.000 --> 03:31.120] The young people Texas Congressman Ron Paul was either tied for first or a close second, [03:31.120 --> 03:37.960] but 41% in the NBC poll said his libertarian leanings make him unacceptable. [03:37.960 --> 03:43.320] Newt Gingrich had been the Iowa frontrunner just a few weeks back, but has fallen far behind. [03:43.320 --> 03:48.320] In Des Moines today, remembering his late mother's mental health problems, he grew emotional. [03:48.320 --> 04:00.760] In my whole emphasis on brain science comes in directly from dealing with the real problems [04:00.760 --> 04:06.960] of real people in my family and so it's not a theory, it's in fact, you know, my mother. [04:06.960 --> 04:12.240] This is very personal for me, it's not just political, it's not just public. [04:12.240 --> 04:17.840] The moment recalled Hillary Clinton's emotional moment, just before the 2008 Democratic [04:17.840 --> 04:21.480] primary in New Hampshire, she went on to win there. [04:21.480 --> 04:26.960] Back in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum continued pressing to add to [04:26.960 --> 04:27.960] his late surge. [04:27.960 --> 04:31.160] He's now running third. [04:31.160 --> 04:36.240] Another former frontrunner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, was running fourth or fifth, depending [04:36.240 --> 04:37.240] on the poll. [04:37.240 --> 04:39.600] And in the day, the President Obama came into office. [04:39.600 --> 04:44.960] And Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman, lost two top staffers this week, was trailing [04:44.960 --> 04:46.400] the field. [04:46.400 --> 04:51.640] She discounted the low turnout at a meet and greet event in early Iowa this afternoon. [04:51.640 --> 04:54.160] Our effort wasn't to bring crowds out. [04:54.160 --> 04:55.520] We were just dropping in. [04:55.520 --> 04:59.320] As the week and arrived, the race in Iowa remained fluid. [04:59.320 --> 05:04.320] Many likely caucus goers said they were still deciding on which candidate to support come [05:04.320 --> 05:05.320] Tuesday. [05:05.320 --> 05:10.000] Judy Woodruff is in Iowa reporting for us through the voting next Tuesday night. [05:10.000 --> 05:13.520] I spoke with her a short time ago in Des Moines. [05:13.520 --> 05:17.880] So Judy, for a long time, it seemed Mitt Romney wasn't going to fight that hard in Iowa, [05:17.880 --> 05:19.680] but no more, right? [05:19.680 --> 05:21.680] Well, that's right, Jeff. [05:21.680 --> 05:22.680] It looks that way. [05:22.680 --> 05:26.760] The first thing we need to say is what a large number of undecided voters, they're still [05:26.760 --> 05:27.760] are in Iowa. [05:27.760 --> 05:30.080] You'll hear a little bit more about that in a minute when you see the interview I did with [05:30.080 --> 05:31.880] some voters last night. [05:31.880 --> 05:33.680] But having said that, you are right. [05:33.680 --> 05:39.640] Mitt Romney on top in two of the most recent polls, right at around 25 percent. [05:39.640 --> 05:42.320] That seems to be so far a ceiling for him. [05:42.320 --> 05:47.720] That's the same percentage of the vote Mitt Romney had four years ago when he lost, because [05:47.720 --> 05:52.760] at that point, the conservative vote in Iowa was coalescing around one candidate, my [05:52.760 --> 05:53.760] cuckoo be. [05:53.760 --> 05:59.440] This time, the conservative vote is looking around a spread among four or five different [05:59.440 --> 06:00.440] candidates. [06:00.440 --> 06:02.880] That's working to Mitt Romney's advantage. [06:02.880 --> 06:07.880] And Jeff, I should say, right hot on his heels or Ron Paul, the libertarian attracting [06:07.880 --> 06:13.120] a lot of younger voters, and as you also mentioned, Rick Santorum, stressing his Christian [06:13.120 --> 06:18.160] conservative views, and maybe all that work that Rick Santorum has put into Iowa, [06:18.160 --> 06:19.160] maybe paying off. [06:19.160 --> 06:23.560] Well, tell me about Ron, Paul, speaking of Ron Paul, you were at an event of his last [06:23.560 --> 06:24.560] night. [06:24.560 --> 06:25.560] Now, what did you see? [06:25.560 --> 06:28.640] Where is the support coming from? [06:28.640 --> 06:35.120] It is coming from, it's traditional that a chunk of Iowa, the Iowa Republican vote, tends [06:35.120 --> 06:36.120] to be libertarian. [06:36.120 --> 06:42.800] And of course, that is Ron Paul's philosophy, so that it's a lot of it is young people, [06:42.800 --> 06:46.680] college students, you go to a college campus, you talk to many of them. [06:46.680 --> 06:48.960] They're very excited about Ron Paul. [06:48.960 --> 06:53.960] His vote is very enthusiastic, it's loyal, they are going to turn out. [06:53.960 --> 06:55.840] The question is how large are they? [06:55.840 --> 07:01.200] Because there's a sizable percentage of Iowa Republicans who say they could never vote [07:01.200 --> 07:04.240] for Ron Paul, because they don't like his foreign policy. [07:04.240 --> 07:08.000] But he is going to get a significant turnout, he's got students in the state who've [07:08.000 --> 07:12.720] come in from other parts of the country who are working for him, even though I should [07:12.720 --> 07:17.720] say Jeff, Ron Paul himself is going home to Texas for the weekend to celebrate New [07:17.720 --> 07:19.360] Year's Eve with his family. [07:19.360 --> 07:25.160] Now, beyond it getting cold, what about atmospheric, if I can use that word? [07:25.160 --> 07:31.360] What's your sense there of how worked up people are, what are the campaigns going through [07:31.360 --> 07:34.920] as they go into the real crunch time? [07:34.920 --> 07:37.200] Well, they're all gearing up. [07:37.200 --> 07:42.360] We ran in this morning at a hotel, we ran into a name that's, I think, familiar to many [07:42.360 --> 07:47.920] of our viewers, Joe Alba, who was President George W. Bush's head of theme of the Federal [07:47.920 --> 07:49.760] Emergency Management Administration. [07:49.760 --> 07:55.680] He's working for Rick Perry, organizing the state, and the way he put it today, he said, [07:55.680 --> 07:59.920] he said, at this stage of the game, you've identified your supporters, it's all mechanics. [07:59.920 --> 08:01.840] It's getting those people out. [08:01.840 --> 08:06.240] The people who liked you from the beginning, the people who were still undecided. [08:06.240 --> 08:11.200] The Romney campaign, working the state very hard, they say they've got, they said, you've [08:11.200 --> 08:15.640] only seen about 10% of what we're doing, 90% of it's been underground. [08:15.640 --> 08:17.040] We're getting people out. [08:17.040 --> 08:21.520] You ask about enthusiasm, everywhere you go, even Democrats will tell you they're excited [08:21.520 --> 08:25.520] to see Iowa getting attention, they're excited to see the press here, even if they don't [08:25.520 --> 08:30.200] like any of these candidates and they don't, they don't plan to vote for them in November. [08:30.200 --> 08:35.320] These caucuses are still a big deal, so we expect a lot of attention on Tuesday night. [08:35.320 --> 08:39.480] All right, Judy Woodruff is in Des Moines, and we'll be there through Tuesday night. [08:39.480 --> 08:41.480] Thanks a lot, Judy. [08:41.480 --> 08:42.480] Thank you. [08:42.480 --> 08:47.360] Still to come on the news hour tonight, Iowa voters still making up their minds, [08:47.360 --> 08:55.000] shields and Brooks, poverty in the suburbs, and the decline in Americans marrying. [08:55.000 --> 08:58.920] But first the other news of this day, here's Harry Train of Austin. [08:58.920 --> 09:03.520] An outpouring of anti-government protesters filled cities across Syria today, it marked a [09:03.520 --> 09:06.200] new challenge to President Bashar al-Assad. [09:06.200 --> 09:11.960] The opposition reported as many as 250,000 people turned out in both Idlib and Hama, [09:11.960 --> 09:16.000] and there were many thousands more in homes, Dilma, and Darah. [09:16.000 --> 09:20.400] Protesters said troops gunned down, at least 22 people, we have a report narrated by Andy [09:20.400 --> 09:24.440] Davies of independent television news. [09:24.440 --> 09:30.120] In the north-west of Syria this morning, some are now calling this the Marta City, given [09:30.120 --> 09:32.760] the numbers killed here in recent months. [09:32.760 --> 09:36.680] And front of the camera reads the message, this is the Friday for marching towards the [09:36.680 --> 09:38.960] squares of freedom. [09:38.960 --> 09:44.280] And so they did, gathering in their thousands in the city's main square, significantly [09:44.280 --> 09:53.400] for the first time in months. [09:53.400 --> 09:57.960] Turns across Syria, the opposition movement rallied its support-based following Friday [09:57.960 --> 09:58.960] prayers. [09:58.960 --> 10:04.240] Hundreds of thousands reportedly took to the streets, emboldened perhaps by the recent [10:04.240 --> 10:08.680] arrival of yellow-vested Arab league monitors in the country. [10:08.680 --> 10:14.120] This intended as a statement to those observers, regime violence will not quail this [10:14.120 --> 10:26.240] uprising. [10:26.240 --> 10:30.960] This footage was apparently recorded today in Duma, it's just six miles from the center [10:30.960 --> 10:33.240] of the capital Damascus. [10:33.240 --> 10:37.640] It's not clear what caused this particular explosion, but opposition activists alleged [10:37.640 --> 10:45.320] Syrian security forces had thrown nail bombs into the crowd. [10:45.320 --> 10:48.520] There was violence documented also in the city of Hama. [10:48.520 --> 10:54.040] Five was shot dead here today, alleged one activist. [10:54.040 --> 10:58.480] A fortnight ago the United Nations estimated that more than 5,000 have been killed by [10:58.480 --> 11:02.360] Syrian security forces since the uprising began. [11:02.360 --> 11:05.960] One influential campaign group says it's now more than 6,000. [11:05.960 --> 11:12.600] It's a figure disputed by the government, and again today, by its media, this reporter [11:12.600 --> 11:18.280] claims he's tracked down a number of people who were supposedly killed by security forces. [11:18.280 --> 11:23.680] State Run TV was broadcasting today live from the center of Damascus and other cities. [11:23.680 --> 11:27.720] They were showing rallies in support of Al-Assad's regime. [11:27.720 --> 11:31.560] In Pakistan today, at least nine people were killed on a car bomb exploded in the city [11:31.560 --> 11:34.720] of Quetta outside the home of a local politician. [11:34.720 --> 11:38.880] Pakistani television showed video victims being rushed to a nearby hospital, or then [11:38.880 --> 11:41.160] 20 people were wounded there. [11:41.160 --> 11:45.480] Spain has imposed new austerity measures, including a temporary tax hike to raise almost [11:45.480 --> 11:46.480] $8 billion. [11:46.480 --> 11:51.160] The two-year increase would affect the wealthy, then newly elected center-right government [11:51.160 --> 11:55.440] also announced more than $11 billion in spending cuts today. [11:55.440 --> 11:59.280] These are all part of efforts to rain in the country's growing debt. [11:59.280 --> 12:03.040] Wall Street stumbled on the last trading day of the year with nothing to give the market [12:03.040 --> 12:08.880] much of a boost. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 69 points to close at 12,217. [12:08.880 --> 12:12.040] The Nasdaq fell 8 points to close at 26.05. [12:12.040 --> 12:18.160] For the year, the Dow gained 5 percent, 5.5 percent, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 2 percent. [12:18.160 --> 12:22.800] The Standard and Poor's 500 finished the year down less than a tenth of a point. [12:22.800 --> 12:26.720] Two NASA satellites are set to start orbiting the moon over a new year's weekend. [12:26.720 --> 12:31.280] The probes were launched in September as part of the Grail Mission for Gravity, Recovery, [12:31.280 --> 12:35.440] and Interior Laboratory. Each satellite is about the size of a washing machine. [12:35.440 --> 12:39.200] They're to fly in tandem to map the moon's gravitational field. [12:39.200 --> 12:43.400] That data could reveal the moon's interior and how it formed. [12:43.400 --> 12:46.400] Those are some of the day's major stories now back to Jim. [12:46.400 --> 12:48.840] And we returned to Iowa. [12:48.840 --> 12:55.920] Last evening, Judy Woodrow spoke with five still undecided voters, all registered Republicans. [12:55.920 --> 13:01.760] They were selected with the help of civic and educational organizations in Iowa. [13:01.760 --> 13:05.840] Thank you all for joining us and to Jim Carly for hosting us in your home. [13:05.840 --> 13:06.640] You're welcome. [13:06.640 --> 13:10.320] As you look at the country, how do you think things are going overall? [13:10.320 --> 13:13.280] I think we're going in the wrong direction. [13:13.280 --> 13:16.880] I think that there needs to be a 360 turnaround [13:16.880 --> 13:20.080] until we're going now with the economy. [13:20.080 --> 13:24.160] And I think also our world's standing has declined. [13:24.160 --> 13:28.160] We read that the Iowa economy is doing pretty well, Jim. [13:28.160 --> 13:32.320] Your unemployment rate overall is pretty good. [13:32.320 --> 13:35.920] But you still have a pretty negative view about the economy. [13:35.920 --> 13:36.480] Is that right? [13:36.480 --> 13:39.120] My wife and I were both retired. [13:39.120 --> 13:42.960] We have our pensions, but we also have investments which took a pretty big hit. [13:42.960 --> 13:45.760] And this is the uncertainty of what's going to happen. [13:45.760 --> 13:50.400] We're doing fine now, but when it's not doing anything to get better, [13:50.400 --> 13:54.160] and Congress can't agree on what day of the week it is, [13:54.160 --> 13:56.320] how are we ever going to get anything solved? [13:56.320 --> 13:59.440] So we are quite concerned about the future and what's going to happen there. [13:59.440 --> 14:00.880] BJ, what about for you? [14:00.880 --> 14:04.640] I mean, personally, how do you think things are going for you, for your family? [14:05.680 --> 14:08.880] Right now things are a little bit better, but we've had some tough times. [14:10.160 --> 14:13.040] When I say that, I've never clicked a coupon in my life. [14:13.040 --> 14:16.000] And now I take the Sunday paper, not to read the news, [14:16.000 --> 14:18.080] but to go through the coupons and see what's in there. [14:18.080 --> 14:21.680] And I mainly say $5, but I'm so excited about that $5. [14:22.400 --> 14:23.520] And Dave, what about you? [14:23.520 --> 14:27.600] Well, I personally, being self-employed, being in the car business, [14:27.600 --> 14:29.120] I've been pretty affected by it. [14:29.120 --> 14:31.440] I think a lot of the small dealers have been hurt. [14:31.440 --> 14:37.120] The impending crisis with the no-lending and people are unsure of how to spend their money, [14:37.120 --> 14:40.080] or when to spend their money, or if they should spend their money. [14:40.080 --> 14:42.800] I think that's put a hurt on everybody. [14:42.800 --> 14:45.200] People just don't have the money to spend it right now. [14:45.200 --> 14:50.000] And if we can get the economy going, it'll heal all the social problems, [14:50.000 --> 14:52.080] the social problems, or all be by themselves. [14:52.080 --> 14:54.080] We just need to get the economy going right now. [14:54.080 --> 14:58.320] Sam, how do you see the importance of this election? [14:58.320 --> 15:00.320] And how closely have you been following it? [15:01.120 --> 15:02.640] I've been following it very closely. [15:02.640 --> 15:05.760] I've been lucky enough to shake the end of every presidential candidate [15:05.760 --> 15:10.000] and look them in the eye, which I think says a lot about being in Iowa, [15:10.000 --> 15:13.200] and you can also learn a lot from that exchange. [15:13.200 --> 15:19.200] I think this election is really going to be a referendum on some really important issues [15:19.200 --> 15:19.920] to this country. [15:19.920 --> 15:23.920] I think spending how to balance the budget, the national debt, [15:24.880 --> 15:28.160] all those issues are really going to be decided by this election. [15:28.160 --> 15:32.560] And the American people are going to have to decide what solutions we want to go about [15:32.560 --> 15:34.240] to solve those problems. [15:34.240 --> 15:36.240] Vijay, what do you think right now? [15:36.240 --> 15:37.600] I mean, where are you leaning? [15:37.600 --> 15:39.440] The caucuses are just a few days away. [15:39.440 --> 15:42.400] I'm leaning toward New Gingrich. [15:44.400 --> 15:49.040] I've been leaning that way for a while because I think he's authentic. [15:49.600 --> 15:54.080] He has success working with the opposite party. [15:57.200 --> 16:00.160] And he seems to have a vision for the future. [16:00.160 --> 16:05.120] Is there anybody else you're thinking about other than Gingrich at this point? [16:05.120 --> 16:10.160] I really like Michelle Bachman because if you want to know the truth, [16:10.160 --> 16:12.560] I'd like to see any man. [16:12.560 --> 16:14.560] And I suppose this is a feminist perspective. [16:14.560 --> 16:21.040] I'd like to see any man start a business, go to school, raise five children, [16:21.040 --> 16:22.720] and have 23 foster children. [16:23.520 --> 16:24.720] I don't think a man could do that. [16:25.520 --> 16:27.600] So I think she runs circles around them. [16:27.600 --> 16:30.160] And I like what she stands for. [16:30.160 --> 16:31.920] So she's a good multi-tasker. [16:32.720 --> 16:33.840] Sam, what about you? [16:33.840 --> 16:35.760] Yeah, it seems to me, with a lot of these candidates, [16:35.760 --> 16:37.280] I'm leaning away. [16:37.280 --> 16:40.000] And so I think two candidates that I'm leaning towards would be [16:40.000 --> 16:42.080] Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. [16:43.120 --> 16:47.840] I think looking at the records, Mitt Romney's been a turnaround artist, [16:47.840 --> 16:49.200] his entire career. [16:49.200 --> 16:52.800] And I think that he could do a really great job turning around the economy. [16:52.800 --> 16:55.680] And then Ron Paul really speaks to me as a young person. [16:55.680 --> 16:57.680] He's got a great youth following. [16:57.680 --> 17:00.400] And I really like a lot of his libertarian stances. [17:00.400 --> 17:02.800] What about you, Jim? [17:02.800 --> 17:04.800] Where are you leaning right now? [17:04.800 --> 17:08.960] Well, if I vote principles, which I'm really leaning at, just recently here, [17:08.960 --> 17:11.360] I've things have happened, and I'm staying here for that. [17:11.360 --> 17:13.120] Would put me in the Rickson Torms camp. [17:14.320 --> 17:16.320] I like the principles that he has. [17:17.280 --> 17:19.120] I think that's where a lot of our problem is. [17:19.760 --> 17:22.240] We don't have virtuous and moral leaders. [17:22.240 --> 17:23.520] Victoria, what about you? [17:23.520 --> 17:25.040] Where is your head right now? [17:25.040 --> 17:26.080] Our heart or both? [17:27.440 --> 17:28.720] It really is a struggle. [17:28.720 --> 17:30.320] You know, I'm just being honest. [17:30.320 --> 17:31.120] I don't know. [17:31.120 --> 17:32.160] I don't have that. [17:33.120 --> 17:35.520] It was so funny because for Huckabee, Huckabee, I was like, [17:35.520 --> 17:36.720] yes, this is my guy. [17:36.720 --> 17:37.520] I want him. [17:37.520 --> 17:38.880] You know, I'm going to go out. [17:38.880 --> 17:39.760] It was freezing. [17:39.760 --> 17:41.360] I mean, it was snow and ice. [17:41.360 --> 17:44.000] Horrible last, you know, little last time. [17:44.000 --> 17:46.320] I don't feel that for any candidate right now. [17:46.320 --> 17:47.680] And that scares me. [17:47.680 --> 17:51.600] So that's why, you know, I just not loyal to anyone person at this point. [17:52.400 --> 17:53.520] Dave, what about you? [17:53.520 --> 17:56.400] How are you leaning right now? [17:56.400 --> 17:57.760] We have a couple candidates. [17:57.760 --> 17:59.200] So I think, should have came to Iowa, [17:59.200 --> 18:00.320] should have campaigned here. [18:00.320 --> 18:01.920] I think Mr. Huntsman's one of them. [18:02.720 --> 18:04.560] He should have thrown his hat in the ring. [18:04.560 --> 18:06.800] He says a lot of good things. [18:06.800 --> 18:09.280] But whichever candidate is selected, [18:09.280 --> 18:14.560] we need to get behind the candidate and beat Obama in 2012. [18:14.560 --> 18:15.600] So, Jim, what about that? [18:15.600 --> 18:17.600] Because it sounds like you're saying something a little bit different [18:17.600 --> 18:18.800] from what Dave is saying. [18:18.800 --> 18:23.840] I don't think we need to go into the polls with the only thing on our mind is [18:23.840 --> 18:25.120] who can beat him. [18:25.120 --> 18:29.120] There's still 10 months to go before the election. [18:29.120 --> 18:33.600] And one of those down the bottom may be the rising star in actuality. [18:33.600 --> 18:36.000] Once they get out into the rest of the nation. [18:36.000 --> 18:38.480] And so, I think we need to pick good candidate. [18:38.480 --> 18:41.280] I favor one that has good principles that I can trust. [18:41.280 --> 18:42.080] Santorum. [18:42.080 --> 18:43.680] Santorum, right? [18:43.680 --> 18:45.760] But I think part of the problem that we have in this, [18:45.760 --> 18:47.680] I've never seen this many people. [18:47.680 --> 18:49.600] So undecided, this late in the game. [18:49.600 --> 18:53.440] And I think a lot of that has to do with the massive number of debates [18:53.440 --> 18:57.840] that we've had, and the forum that the debates have had to wear people are attacking each [18:57.840 --> 18:59.440] yet. I mean, we're attacking our own. [18:59.440 --> 19:03.680] Anybody else on why it's so hard to make a decision this time? [19:03.680 --> 19:07.040] I mean, you've touched on the fact that it is hard, [19:07.040 --> 19:09.520] but any thoughts about why, Vijay? [19:09.520 --> 19:14.240] Mitt Romney cannot get past a certain level. [19:14.240 --> 19:17.600] And he couldn't go up against Huckabee last time, although he spent [19:17.600 --> 19:19.600] gobs and gobs and gobs of money. [19:19.600 --> 19:24.000] And to me, Mitt Romney is the status quo in the Republican party. [19:24.000 --> 19:28.400] And I think a lot of us, I don't know how many of us are tea partyers or libertarians, [19:28.400 --> 19:30.960] were dissatisfied with the status quo of the Republican party. [19:30.960 --> 19:33.760] And that's what Mitt Romney represents. [19:33.760 --> 19:37.120] So I think that's why there's the fight, not the invite, [19:37.120 --> 19:39.280] but the turmoil in our party. [19:39.280 --> 19:40.480] Sam, what do you say to that? [19:40.480 --> 19:44.240] Because you said Romney was somebody you could support. [19:44.240 --> 19:46.240] In fact, you mentioned him first. [19:46.240 --> 19:51.040] Yeah, I think that Mitt Romney really brings lots of the table. [19:51.040 --> 19:53.040] And if you look at him against Newt Gingrich, I mean, [19:53.040 --> 19:55.360] I don't mean to get Canada versus Canada here, [19:55.360 --> 19:58.240] but Newt Gingrich has really been the textbook, [19:58.240 --> 20:02.560] Washington Insiders since, you know, for the last 40 years. [20:02.560 --> 20:07.360] And so I don't know if I'm comfortable having that background in the White House. [20:07.360 --> 20:09.680] Mitt Romney is not a true conservative. [20:09.680 --> 20:14.560] And we talk about being enthusiastic, conservatives cannot get enthusiastic about him. [20:14.560 --> 20:18.560] And that's why I think that there's that vacuum. [20:18.560 --> 20:19.360] What about that, Jim? [20:19.360 --> 20:21.520] Because I think you're the one who said a few minutes ago, [20:21.520 --> 20:24.400] we need somebody who's going to stick with their principles. [20:24.400 --> 20:24.960] That's right. [20:24.960 --> 20:29.120] And my fear with Romney and why I don't like him is, [20:29.120 --> 20:32.320] I believe government should be small. [20:32.320 --> 20:35.840] Smaller government, less cost, people are responsible [20:35.840 --> 20:37.520] and they take care of themselves. [20:37.520 --> 20:40.160] My feeling is anybody that wants the Institute to health care, [20:40.160 --> 20:42.720] and I know they have the state constitution that says they can, [20:42.720 --> 20:45.120] but that's somebody that wants big government. [20:45.120 --> 20:47.680] Romney, I mean, he's a nice guy, he's polished, [20:47.680 --> 20:50.560] he's back for a second time around, you know, [20:50.560 --> 20:54.960] but he's just not, he's just not the person who I will get up at a snowstorm. [20:56.320 --> 20:57.280] To vote for. [20:57.280 --> 20:59.120] Some of you have mentioned San Toro. [20:59.120 --> 20:59.840] Why? [20:59.840 --> 21:04.000] And let me ask you, Sam, why didn't you bring up Rick San Toro? [21:04.000 --> 21:06.000] I mean, my problem with Rick San Toro, [21:06.000 --> 21:09.680] as well as some of the other maybe more socially conservative candidates, [21:09.680 --> 21:12.320] is I think they dwell too much on social issues. [21:12.320 --> 21:15.600] And while they might pass a credential check as far as their [21:15.600 --> 21:18.960] economic policies go, I just don't think they're people. [21:18.960 --> 21:23.760] I think they alienate moderate voters and independence. [21:23.760 --> 21:25.280] And while they might excite the base, [21:25.280 --> 21:28.720] I just don't see them doing well at all in a general election. [21:28.720 --> 21:30.400] Wendy, you think you're going to make up your mind? [21:30.400 --> 21:32.400] Probably Tuesday. [21:32.400 --> 21:36.880] I'll have her done by Sunday, and then I'll think about it. [21:36.880 --> 21:40.640] Well, we appreciate all of you talking with us about these caucuses. [21:40.640 --> 21:42.720] Thank you very much. [21:42.720 --> 21:43.360] Thank you. [21:43.360 --> 21:44.320] You're very welcome. [21:44.320 --> 21:46.320] Thanks for having us. [21:46.320 --> 21:51.760] For the record, Texas Governor Rick Perry's name did not come up in Judy's discussion. [21:52.720 --> 21:55.440] As we heard in Judy's conversation four years ago, [21:55.440 --> 21:59.440] it was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who beat Mitt Romney and all others [21:59.440 --> 22:02.000] to win the Iowa Republican caucus. [22:02.000 --> 22:06.960] His success came with the strong support of conservative evangelical Christians. [22:06.960 --> 22:10.560] Tonight's edition of Need to Know explores the power of the religious [22:10.560 --> 22:11.680] right in Iowa. [22:11.680 --> 22:14.880] This excerpt looks at the influence of one man in particular. [22:14.880 --> 22:30.800] The correspondent is Rick Carr. [22:45.840 --> 22:46.640] Is that true? [22:46.640 --> 22:49.200] I don't know if it's a prerequisite to meet with me. [22:50.240 --> 22:53.840] But I believe it's the issues that our organization represents. [22:54.720 --> 23:01.520] And our supporters are very, very sincere about these issues. [23:01.520 --> 23:05.040] They're very interested in who's going to champion these issues. [23:06.720 --> 23:09.120] Our supporters are going to show up on caucus night. [23:09.120 --> 23:13.440] In November, the family leader hosted a forum for GOP hopes. [23:13.440 --> 23:18.800] We don't need you to be a Republican Democrat, but we need you to be biblical. [23:18.800 --> 23:23.520] And the candidates lined up to tout their field to socially conservative positions. [23:24.320 --> 23:30.320] The left is prepared to impose intolerance and to drive out of existence, [23:30.320 --> 23:31.760] traditional religion. [23:31.760 --> 23:33.600] They slammed abortion rights. [23:33.600 --> 23:37.360] I have supported the amendment that defines life at conception. [23:37.360 --> 23:42.320] As long as abortion is legal, at least according to the Supreme Court, [23:42.320 --> 23:45.520] legal in this country, we will never have rest. [23:45.520 --> 23:46.640] Gay marriage. [23:46.640 --> 23:53.120] The family is defined as one man, one woman, no other definition will do. [23:53.120 --> 23:55.440] And what they call Obamacare. [23:55.440 --> 24:01.040] Obamacare has to go because it's good trying to tell us how to deliver health care in our states. [24:01.040 --> 24:06.560] The candidates came because conservative evangelical voters are organized and motivated. [24:06.560 --> 24:08.720] They turn up on caucus night. [24:08.720 --> 24:12.480] And endorsements from socially conservative groups like the family leader [24:12.480 --> 24:15.920] could turn one of them into the Mike Huckabee of the current campaign. [24:16.480 --> 24:21.680] But Vanderplot says none of them ended up stealing the hearts of Iowa's conservative evangelicalists. [24:22.320 --> 24:25.120] We had six candidates that are Thanksgiving family form. [24:25.120 --> 24:27.920] And I think it was my wife afterwards who said, [24:27.920 --> 24:31.920] you know Bob, if we could take those six and put them in a blender and just have the [24:31.920 --> 24:35.760] strengths come out and have one candidate and as a daughter, you're going off like close to cloning. [24:35.760 --> 24:39.040] Yes. But we would have a perfect candidate. [24:40.400 --> 24:43.760] And I think what we're realizing today, there is no perfect candidate. [24:44.800 --> 24:49.120] Post-gript Bob Vanderplots ended up endorsing Rick Santorum. [24:49.120 --> 24:53.360] They were published reports last week that Vanderplots sought up to a million dollars for his [24:53.360 --> 24:56.960] endorsement allegations he vigorously denied. [24:56.960 --> 25:08.000] Need to know heirs on most PBS stations tonight. [25:08.000 --> 25:13.680] And to the analysis of shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York Times, [25:13.680 --> 25:20.240] columnist David Brooks. David, from Iowa, do you have a big picture portrait of the setting, [25:20.240 --> 25:21.520] the scene there tonight? [25:21.520 --> 25:27.040] Well, there are some human interest stories. I got to see Newt Gingrich cry today, something [25:27.040 --> 25:31.120] I had never seen before. He was asked a very personal question about his life and he talked about [25:31.120 --> 25:35.840] how he's sad or and slower than he used to be. And then he was asked about his mom and his face just [25:35.840 --> 25:40.880] dissolved in tears. And you know, the candidates are very tired. Gingrich's numbers are falling. [25:40.880 --> 25:44.400] They're under a lot of pressure. And so you got to see that human element. [25:44.400 --> 25:48.480] The big thing that comes from all the different campaigns is a sense of looking backward. [25:48.480 --> 25:52.720] There's a theme in almost every single race, which is America has lost something that [25:52.720 --> 25:57.680] it once had. And so we have to look backward. It's about restoration, restoring old values. [25:57.680 --> 26:01.760] We've strayed. And this is a theme, which is sort of a negative and pessimistic theme. [26:02.320 --> 26:07.280] And almost in puck elliptic theme, that one finds in Mitt Romney, one finds in in Gingrich, [26:07.280 --> 26:11.920] Rick Santorum, Ron Paul. It's all about we have this magic, and we've lost it. [26:11.920 --> 26:14.800] How do you see the big picture, Mark? [26:14.800 --> 26:20.560] I think the point David made is one worth repeating. And that is, American campaigns are about [26:20.560 --> 26:27.280] the future. And this campaign has really been an awful lot about the past. And it's kind of fascinating [26:27.280 --> 26:33.040] to see, it felt like Rick Santorum really evolved from nowhere after campaigning 99 counties [26:33.040 --> 26:39.680] doing the classic meeting voters and so forth. But absent from his message that I get is any upbeat. [26:39.680 --> 26:46.640] I mean, this sort of a gloom and doom to it. But I think Jim, this has been a remarkable race. [26:46.640 --> 26:53.120] It's separate times during this year. Six different candidates have led in the polls in Iowa. [26:53.120 --> 27:00.080] So, you know, it's up for grabs, and it's very much Tuesday will determine who goes forward. [27:00.080 --> 27:07.200] I mean, some candidates will end. It's just outside of the Des Moines airport on Wednesday morning. [27:07.200 --> 27:11.040] Or let's talk about Romney from a beginning with you, David. How do you read the situation on [27:11.040 --> 27:15.200] Romney right now? Where are you standing and what his prospects are in Iowa? [27:16.800 --> 27:21.200] Yeah, he's exuding confidence. I think as people are exuding confidence. I went to a rally this [27:21.200 --> 27:26.560] morning in the rain. And he was, he was with Governor Chris Christie and New Jersey. And it was just [27:26.560 --> 27:32.160] a smooth, effective, not too long. But sort of a corporate race. It was like George Bush in [27:32.160 --> 27:37.600] year 2000. And what's interesting is the tactic it's taking. It's very short on policy. It's very [27:37.600 --> 27:42.240] long on patriotism. He talks about driving across the country, looking at the national parks. [27:42.960 --> 27:47.200] He talks that he sings or at least recite some verses from the star-spangled banner. [27:47.200 --> 27:52.480] It's as if he's running to be Tom Sawyer. And I think it's at a way to establish a connection [27:52.480 --> 27:56.640] with voters, even despite questions they may have about Mormonism or anything else. [27:56.640 --> 28:00.880] I think it's a way to distinguish in his eyes between him and Barack Obama. [28:00.880 --> 28:06.320] He's more mainstream. And then again, this theme of returning. As posing as Tom Sawyer, [28:06.320 --> 28:11.920] he's returning to some earlier values. And you know, that may play this year. Mark is absolutely [28:11.920 --> 28:16.160] right. The Rick Santorum and a lot of the candidates are very negative. The guy who wanted four [28:16.160 --> 28:21.920] years ago might cut to be very positive. But the mood here has darkened appreciably. And maybe [28:21.920 --> 28:27.200] they're in tune with what the voters are hearing right now. But Mark, you heard what Judy said [28:27.200 --> 28:33.120] that her feeling was that the polls show that there's a cap that cap is still there for Romney. [28:33.120 --> 28:37.760] It's working to his advantage. Because, you know, I would because the everybody else is [28:37.760 --> 28:42.080] so split up. That's right. That's right. Nobody has been able to consolidate, for example, [28:42.080 --> 28:48.240] the religious conservative vote, although it seems that Rick Santorum has made [28:48.240 --> 28:53.840] great inroads there. But no, there seems to be a ceiling on Mitt Romney that was kind of [28:53.840 --> 28:58.480] fascinating at the beginning of the month of December. In the Gallup poll, [28:58.480 --> 29:06.800] he trailed Newt Gingrich at 37 to 23. You know, 14 point evidence. He now leads Newt Gingrich [29:06.800 --> 29:12.720] 27 to 22. All right. Now it means Gingrich is plummeted in all of us. Romney is just moved up [29:12.720 --> 29:18.720] the home. He just broke the 25 point barrier. I think what Romney's campaign has been about is [29:18.720 --> 29:23.920] not so great expectations. I mean, they've lowered the, tried to lower the expectations [29:23.920 --> 29:29.600] in Iowa all year. But David's right. I think there's a sense now that they could win in Iowa [29:29.600 --> 29:33.760] and or even if Ron Paul wins, that's not the worst thing in the world to them. They feel [29:33.760 --> 29:40.160] in the long run. But if they, with the knocking, the knockout punch in both Iowa and New Hampshire [29:40.160 --> 29:46.640] would do for him, the Romney people feel what it did for George W. Bush in 2000 when he sold up [29:46.640 --> 29:57.920] the Republican nomination essentially. And in 2004, when John Kerry won both Iowa and New [29:57.920 --> 30:03.440] Hampshire, John, of course in 2003, he lost to John McCain and New Hampshire. But that one [30:03.440 --> 30:10.160] two punch is really formidable. All right. Now about Ron Paul, David, as Mark just said, Ron Paul's [30:10.160 --> 30:15.760] up there. And what, what, what is it going to mean? You know, if you don't say he wins, that's one thing. But [30:15.760 --> 30:21.200] even if he comes in a close second, what's it going to mean for the race generally for Ron Paul to [30:21.200 --> 30:26.720] do that well in Iowa? Well, the thing that Romney people like is there two main rivals right now [30:26.720 --> 30:31.680] around Paul and Rick Santorum. People think Kingrich's campaign might have legs or Rick Perry [30:31.680 --> 30:36.400] campaign might have legs. But I don't think they're too worried about Santorum and Paul having legs. [30:36.400 --> 30:43.520] So the having rivals like that is good for the Romney camp. The Paul people are young. They're [30:43.520 --> 30:49.200] organized. They're very diverse. There's some the veterans and older people, a lot of students, [30:49.200 --> 30:53.600] a lot of gold bugs, some people who want drug legalization. It's about as diverse a group of people [30:53.600 --> 30:59.920] as you can possibly imagine. And there's a supposition that Paul like Santorum probably is under polling [30:59.920 --> 31:03.680] that there are more people and they're more mobilized, either both in the libertarian camp [31:03.680 --> 31:08.000] and the social conservative camp. And so historically people in those camps have done a little [31:08.000 --> 31:14.640] better than the final polls. So there's there's upside for him. And he it's funny the way you can't [31:14.640 --> 31:19.200] pay and see campaigns like the audiences in there. He gives his talks whether they're [31:19.200 --> 31:23.920] applauding, not listening, not he's going to tell you what he thinks. So it's there's no real [31:25.280 --> 31:30.800] superstar. There's no stump superstar who really can galvanize a crowd among this group the way [31:30.800 --> 31:35.440] how could be did the way John Edwards did the way Barack Obama did. As a series of stump [31:35.440 --> 31:40.720] performers, I would say it's a below average year and Paul doing very well is certainly not raising [31:40.720 --> 31:45.600] that average. How do you how do you account for Santorum's surge? [31:45.600 --> 31:50.400] It's just a quick thing on the wall. Okay. The word in 2008 in the authenticity [31:51.120 --> 31:56.000] run Paul exudes authenticity. He says the same thing where we go. Others trim [31:56.000 --> 32:03.360] they pander. They play to the crowd. What do you want to hear? The run Paul is just the opposite [32:03.360 --> 32:10.000] and he has unlike Santorum. And even Gingrich at this point, he has money and the ability to raise [32:10.000 --> 32:14.800] money in small contributions from a lot of different people. The same thing too. [32:14.800 --> 32:19.440] Santorum, Santorum has been Santorum and he's own Wyoming. That's right. He has sounded the themes [32:19.440 --> 32:27.600] that have been the cradle of modern conservatism. Strong, muscular, foreign policy, social, social [32:27.600 --> 32:36.720] religious conservatives and economic fiscal conservatism. I think that is a sense in Iowa [32:36.720 --> 32:43.440] that he's worked for. He's visited the 99 counties. He's done it the retail way. He's [32:43.440 --> 32:51.600] listened to the hairdressers in the auto mechanics. And I think that there is a connection point [32:51.600 --> 32:55.840] and especially now with the religious and social conservatives. I think he's caught on. [32:55.840 --> 32:59.280] And that the others have fallen on the floor. The other side. Yeah. Yeah. [32:59.280 --> 33:03.040] Here of Santorum. Well, he never had the moment in the sun. I mean, the others were all [33:03.040 --> 33:08.720] Icarus. I mean, they got close to the sun and then boom, boom, boom. How do you read Santorum, David? [33:08.720 --> 33:14.080] Yeah. To me, this is less about the candidates and their personalities and more about just [33:14.080 --> 33:19.360] raw demographics and philosophy. Year after year, there are a lot of social conservatives [33:19.360 --> 33:24.000] in this state. And this goes back to the time. Many elections ago in Pat Robertson did well [33:24.000 --> 33:27.760] here, let alone my cuckabee. And those social conservatives have always been here. And they're [33:27.760 --> 33:32.400] going to vote for a social conservative candidate and Santorum's home school or he homeschools [33:32.400 --> 33:37.680] his kids. He's genuinely of the community, even though he is Catholic. And so they're going to [33:37.680 --> 33:42.400] go for that guy. They're genuinely a lot of libertarians among the voters here. And they're [33:42.400 --> 33:46.480] going to go for Ron Paul and whether they perform well or not. It's almost beside the point at [33:46.480 --> 33:50.720] this point. Those people are going to express their point of view. And so they're just a lot of [33:50.720 --> 33:54.400] those voters in this state. I was going to go back to Gingris from a moment, David. You said [33:54.400 --> 34:02.880] you saw him cry today. He, he, his poll show that he has really dropped. And why? And does he have [34:02.880 --> 34:08.400] a chance of coming out of Iowa in any way that could give him leg? You said there's a possibility [34:08.400 --> 34:17.280] of legs for Gingris. Why? I asked you three questions about that. Well, he's a candidate who has [34:17.280 --> 34:21.360] a long reputation. And he's pretty good, you know, I saw him today on the stump. And he gives [34:21.360 --> 34:26.720] good answers that get applause going. He's just a polished political performer. The reason he's [34:26.720 --> 34:33.120] falling primarily is that there's a lot of ads on TV these days in Iowa. And 47% of them are [34:33.120 --> 34:37.840] being run against Newt Gingris. There's just a ton of negative ads. And he's got a lot that he's [34:37.840 --> 34:42.320] freely admits. He's vulnerable for. And so people are learning about the divorces. They're [34:42.320 --> 34:47.600] learning about the Freddie Mac lobbying. And they're just not happy. It's funny to watch him [34:47.600 --> 34:52.560] happen to run into him in a hotel lobby. And last night, and he was evident in very self-aware, [34:52.560 --> 34:56.560] a very different sort of Newt Gingris, a little more mature than I'd seen him. Very [34:56.560 --> 35:02.080] aware of his problems and his possibilities. And then today, the emotional moment, I wouldn't [35:02.080 --> 35:07.680] bet on him rebounding. But he is someone who still can debate extremely well in that argument [35:07.680 --> 35:12.080] that he uses time and time again. Who do you want to see debating Barack Obama? That is one [35:12.080 --> 35:15.760] that resonates. So I wouldn't totally count him out, but I certainly wouldn't bet money on him. [35:15.760 --> 35:21.920] He wouldn't need it, would you? I think I'm probably less bullish on Newt Gingris' ability to [35:21.920 --> 35:29.520] bounce back than David. In 1996, after he lost Bob Doll said, I was told that people did not [35:29.520 --> 35:35.440] like negative ads. I didn't run any, I lost. And I think we're seeing that with Newt Gingris. [35:35.440 --> 35:46.240] David mentioned that 45 percent of all the ads bought in Iowa in 2011 have been against Newt Gingris. [35:46.240 --> 35:52.400] I mean, that leaves 55 percent for anybody else, a positive, perhaps the most effective [35:52.400 --> 35:59.600] was non-Paul's, which was the serial hypocrisy ad. So I think it's tough. There's an awful lot [35:59.600 --> 36:06.400] of that has got back to him. I think probably the Freddie Mac is really hurt him with conservatives [36:06.400 --> 36:12.320] in general and the historian explanation. Secondly, was really his appearing with Nancy Pelosi [36:12.320 --> 36:20.320] in that public service announcement. He really hasn't. On Iowa, generally, we have both of [36:20.320 --> 36:26.400] you beginning with you, David. Does should Iowa matter as much as it appears to at this point? [36:26.400 --> 36:30.320] I mean, as we're getting, we're talking about, the whole world is talking about it right now. [36:30.320 --> 36:37.120] Should they be? Is this the way to choose candidates for President of the United States by [36:37.120 --> 36:43.120] going starting with Iowa? Yeah, I still think so. I still, this is still my favorite place to [36:43.120 --> 36:47.520] cover a political race. It's not the way it used to be. It's not just a George H. W. Bush [36:47.520 --> 36:52.000] driving around in a, in a station wagon with one aide and maybe a press person. Now there's [36:52.000 --> 36:57.200] clumps of people, there's big buses. But it's still, it's more retail. The people are really [36:57.200 --> 37:02.800] run through their paces. Rick Perry tried. It couldn't make it here. Michelle Bachman, [37:02.800 --> 37:07.440] we saw what happened to her among voters here. It is, I think it's still a good testing ground. [37:07.440 --> 37:11.440] Is it the most representative state in the country? Maybe not. But I still think it's a [37:11.440 --> 37:16.240] practiced knowledgeable electorate who are very good at putting candidates through the ordeal [37:16.240 --> 37:20.880] of running. And I do think it's a legitimate way to screen out candidates and give a couple [37:20.880 --> 37:26.080] a chance to move on. Yeah, great with that, don't you mind? I do, Jim. I mean, Iowa is unrepresented. [37:26.080 --> 37:31.200] It has the fourth highest literacy rate of the 50 states. It has the third lowest [37:31.200 --> 37:36.240] divorce rate. It has the sixth highest high school graduation rate. Higher than the coastal [37:36.240 --> 37:43.360] smug states of Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington. [37:44.640 --> 37:49.760] And the people take it quite seriously. And I always feel better after I've been in Iowa, [37:49.760 --> 38:03.280] and I will feel better after Tuesday night again. Okay. Mark, David, thank you both very much. [38:03.280 --> 38:08.560] Now two stories about the changing portrait of America. First, a different kind of life in the [38:08.560 --> 38:15.120] suburbs. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people living below the poverty line in U.S. suburbs [38:15.120 --> 38:21.040] increased by more than 50 percent a trend that accelerated during the recession. It's happening [38:21.040 --> 38:26.000] in places that have long been middle class as well as in richer neighborhoods, Elizabeth [38:26.000 --> 38:34.800] Brackett of WTTW Chicago, has our story. DuPage County, Illinois is one of the wealthiest counties [38:34.800 --> 38:41.600] in the country. Comfortable homes that on treeline streets in the suburb of Weaton eight miles west of [38:41.600 --> 38:48.800] Chicago. Upscale restaurants and shops line the historic downtown. But there is another side to [38:48.800 --> 38:57.280] DuPage County. One that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. It includes packed food pantries [38:57.280 --> 39:04.160] and crowds at the county welfare office. Candace King coordinates human services in DuPage County [39:04.160 --> 39:11.440] and she has watched poverty grow. It's exploded in the 16 years that I've been in my [39:11.440 --> 39:19.120] job. It has gone from something that was rarely encountered in this community and certainly no one [39:19.120 --> 39:25.760] thought it was here to an issue that we encounter every day. Over the last 20 years, poverty into [39:25.760 --> 39:34.800] page county has grown by 185 percent. Nearly 60,000 people here live in poverty, defined by the federal [39:34.800 --> 39:42.880] government as earning $22,350 a year for a family of four. And now a Brookings Institute analysis [39:42.880 --> 39:49.200] of census data finds that for the first time in the Chicago area there are more people in poverty [39:49.200 --> 39:57.360] in the suburbs than in the city. In this Wheaton housing complex, 11 of the town homes are in [39:57.360 --> 40:04.720] four closure. After almost two years of trying, 43-year-old Katherine Aravosa's was finally able [40:04.720 --> 40:12.240] to renegotiate her mortgage and save her home. But she and her two children live far below the poverty [40:12.240 --> 40:19.600] line. Aravosa's had a middle class upbringing. Her father was a college professor and in 2008, [40:19.600 --> 40:26.880] she got her second master's degree. This one in elementary education. But because of cuts in state [40:26.880 --> 40:35.200] education funding, she hasn't been able to find a full-time teaching job. Last year, she made $11,000 [40:35.200 --> 40:42.560] as a substitute teacher, far less than what she needs to support her two children. It has been [40:42.560 --> 40:51.120] hard for me because I want to provide for them in a way my parents provided for me. I never [40:51.120 --> 41:02.000] knew what my parents made. I never had to worry about a thing. We just lived a really stable, [41:03.200 --> 41:10.400] typical middle class existence. And for my children, they don't have that sense of security that [41:10.400 --> 41:16.880] I had. They know when I'm stressed and that hurts. One item out of the bucket behind four [41:16.880 --> 41:23.120] Aravosa's is part of the newly poured demographic that account for much of the rise in poverty [41:23.120 --> 41:30.160] in the suburbs. Ten years ago, she and her husband and architect were earning a six-figure income [41:30.160 --> 41:36.960] and living in a five-bedroom home in Wheaton. They divorced in 2004. Her former husband's [41:36.960 --> 41:42.800] architectural commissions dried up in 2008 and he has had trouble making child support payments. [41:42.800 --> 41:48.400] Aravosa's tried to get Medicaid for her children, but the state threatened to take her [41:48.400 --> 41:53.840] former husband's architect license because of lack of child support and she backed off. [41:54.880 --> 41:58.880] It's those days when you get up and you really don't know what you're going to give your [41:58.880 --> 42:07.040] kids for dinner. And it can be a full-time job finding out how am I going to get glasses for [42:07.040 --> 42:13.200] prescription as a year old. And where am I going to, you know, how do I go and get her the shot she [42:13.200 --> 42:20.640] needs? She's going to sixth grade, not having the health insurance, not having the basic things [42:20.640 --> 42:27.600] that people take for granted, being able to get their kit to the doctor. You know, when they come home [42:27.600 --> 42:33.200] and say we need $5 for school, there's always something. And sometimes you have to say, [42:33.200 --> 42:41.600] I don't have it. I just don't have it. I'm sorry. Today dinner comes from the local food pantry. [42:42.320 --> 42:48.000] She cooks in her crock pot or microwave, since she can't afford to repair her book and stove. [42:48.880 --> 42:54.880] Like many of the suburban poor, our avoces never thought she would need help buying food. [42:55.520 --> 43:01.520] I didn't expect to be using the food pantry, especially not on a regular basis, but, you know, [43:01.520 --> 43:09.760] I'm working and I'm not making enough money to make ends meet. So, it's very humbling, [43:09.760 --> 43:14.400] but I swallowed my pride and I went to the People's Resource Center and I asked for help. [43:15.200 --> 43:17.200] Okay, I have to have pumpkin, right? [43:17.600 --> 43:22.320] Our avoces can fill up a shopping cart once a week at the People's Resource Center. [43:23.200 --> 43:29.840] The number of people using this food pantry in Wheaton has gone up by 200% in the last five years. [43:29.840 --> 43:33.440] It was a 30% jump in 2008 alone. [43:34.000 --> 43:39.280] Make sure all the cart handles are clean. The Resource Center's program director, Melissa Travis, [43:39.280 --> 43:42.800] says many of their clients are new to poverty. [43:43.120 --> 43:47.600] Oftentimes, the first time they come, they break into tears because they can't imagine that they would [43:47.600 --> 43:51.520] ever need help in the way like this. They've been people that have paid taxes. [43:51.520 --> 43:55.120] They're people that have volunteered and helped in places like this in the past. [43:55.120 --> 44:00.400] And now suddenly, they have to go and seek out that assistance. So, we give a lot of hugs. [44:01.200 --> 44:04.880] Mary Kay Hoppe could have used a hug the day she came to the food pantry. [44:05.440 --> 44:09.200] A registered nurse, Hoppe has been out of work for several years. [44:09.920 --> 44:13.680] She grew up at Wheaton and enjoyed a far different lifestyle. [44:14.560 --> 44:19.600] My dad had a good job. We had the big house and the cars and all those other things, [44:19.600 --> 44:25.360] you know, new wardrobe first school when that time of the year came around. I think that I'm one of the [44:25.360 --> 44:33.280] people who didn't have to go without much. And yeah, it's a whole flip side of that. [44:33.600 --> 44:40.000] Three months of unemployment brought Mariano Menendez and his family to the food pantry for the first time. [44:40.560 --> 44:44.800] Did you think you'd ever wind up coming to a food pantry? No, no, of course not. Never. [44:44.800 --> 44:53.760] Never. I've had good jobs. I've made good income. I've never in my wildest dreams. So, yeah, [44:53.760 --> 44:59.760] I'm definitely very grateful for this. It's an amazing, amazing service that they offer here. [45:00.320 --> 45:04.640] There are dramatic increase in poverty in suburban DuPage County, [45:04.640 --> 45:08.000] mirrors the increase in poverty in suburban areas across the country. [45:08.720 --> 45:13.600] That leaves human services struggling to meet the needs in their communities. [45:13.600 --> 45:20.320] Yet federal, state, and local funding still goes disproportionately to urban areas. [45:20.880 --> 45:24.640] That lack of federal and state resources to fight suburban poverty [45:24.640 --> 45:31.680] leaves existing agencies overwhelmed. All of the growth in poverty in the state of Illinois [45:31.680 --> 45:38.800] has been in the suburban area. My organization did an analysis of federal funding [45:38.800 --> 45:46.240] and some state funding and private philanthropic funding and found that the city of Chicago [45:46.240 --> 45:52.080] is getting up to four and five times more per person than DuPage County is. [45:52.640 --> 45:56.720] That is not news to Melissa Travis at the People's Resource Center. [45:56.720 --> 46:01.920] We are stretched about six weeks ago. The food pantry was as empty as I've ever seen it in six [46:01.920 --> 46:07.600] and a half years. We were trying to get through to our next delivery and just hoping that we had [46:07.600 --> 46:12.800] enough food to give everybody what they needed. It's been a devastating year in that regard. [46:12.800 --> 46:18.080] Unlike many of the newly poor who have a hard time finding the resources that are available, [46:18.080 --> 46:22.800] Katherine Herobosis has taken advantage of all the programs that the People's Resource Center. [46:23.520 --> 46:27.920] She has gotten close for herself and her kids and used the job counselors in a [46:27.920 --> 46:34.640] effort to find a full-time teaching job. But having to accept help has changed the way she thinks of [46:34.640 --> 46:39.920] herself. I always thought of myself as middle class. I had a middle class upbringing. I had middle [46:39.920 --> 46:47.920] class expectations. But the reality is that I'm not living in middle class lifestyle anymore. [46:49.520 --> 46:53.840] So no, I don't think so. I think I've fallen out as a middle class. [46:55.680 --> 46:59.600] Like many in her situation, she doesn't see much hope of things improving. [46:59.600 --> 47:07.760] And while she wants to stay in Wheaton, life in suburbia is far different than she ever imagined it would be. [47:16.160 --> 47:22.080] And finally tonight, our second story on the shifting trends in American life. This [47:22.080 --> 47:29.440] one's about the changing demographics of marriage. Ray Suarez has our conversation. For decades, [47:29.440 --> 47:35.200] the fact that a sizable majority of Americans were married shaped our politics where we lived, [47:35.200 --> 47:40.480] where we worked, and what we thought when we heard the word family. Recently, the Pew Research [47:40.480 --> 47:47.760] Center took a look at all of us over 18 and found just 51% are married down from more than 70% [47:47.760 --> 47:53.360] in 1960. Stephanie Coants has been chronicling the changes in American marriage for a long time. [47:53.360 --> 47:57.600] She teaches history and family studies at Evergreen State College in Washington, [47:57.600 --> 48:01.520] and is director of research at the Council on Contemporary Families. [48:01.520 --> 48:07.360] Professor Coants, welcome. We moved in 50 years from almost three quarters of married adults [48:07.360 --> 48:10.960] to barely half. What happened? What's pushing those numbers? [48:12.160 --> 48:16.880] Well, one of the things that you have to bear in mind is that 1960 was probably the most [48:16.880 --> 48:23.280] eight typical year in 150 years. The age of marriage was at an all-time low, half of all women [48:23.280 --> 48:28.720] were married before they got out of their teens, and the rate of marriage was at an all-time high. [48:28.720 --> 48:33.520] So what's happened since then? Primarily what's driving this is the rise in the age of marriage. [48:33.520 --> 48:39.920] It's now up to 26 for women and 28 for men. And that's actually a good thing, [48:39.920 --> 48:44.400] because the longer a woman delays marriage, right up into early 30s, [48:44.400 --> 48:50.480] below her chances of divorce. But it does totally change the social weight of married households [48:50.480 --> 48:56.640] in our economy, our society, our politics. But not only has the age at first marriage [48:56.640 --> 49:01.280] risen, which of course, that's just math. It makes a smaller number of adults married. [49:01.280 --> 49:05.200] But the number of people who have ever been married has also declined. [49:05.200 --> 49:09.600] Has marriage moved from being sort of culturally mandatory to more optional? [49:09.600 --> 49:16.160] Well, it's definitely moved to being more optional. That does not mean though that it's not [49:16.160 --> 49:21.120] just as valued. In fact, even more valued than it used to be. And it doesn't mean that the majority [49:21.120 --> 49:27.680] of Americans will not marry. I think that probably we're going into situation where a slightly [49:27.680 --> 49:33.680] nup large number of people will never marry then in the past, maybe 15 percent as opposed to [49:33.680 --> 49:39.600] 10 percent norm and 5 percent in the eight typical 1950s. And of course, we also have some people [49:39.600 --> 49:45.200] who will live alone after divorcing. But on the other hand, people are marrying for the first [49:45.200 --> 49:51.920] time in their 40s, 50s and 60s at younger and older ages than ever before. So for me, the main [49:51.920 --> 49:57.760] thing that I think we're facing here is that you can no longer assume that married couple households [49:57.760 --> 50:03.280] are going to be the main places where people make the major life decisions, whether that's [50:03.280 --> 50:09.680] entering and becoming sexually active, buying house, entering long-term obligations, [50:09.680 --> 50:14.160] living with somebody that is a romantic partner, even having a child out of marriage. So we can no [50:14.160 --> 50:19.600] longer assume that married couple households are the only place where people incur obligations, [50:19.600 --> 50:24.720] make commitments and need help in meeting their obligations. Well, you've talked about these big [50:24.720 --> 50:30.160] life moments, but have they responded to the fact that marriage has changed in this way over the [50:30.160 --> 50:36.560] last 50 years. Our tax laws, the way we build houses, the way we award property and courts, [50:36.560 --> 50:42.720] all kinds of things are still built around marriage. Absolutely, absolutely. Just look at work [50:42.720 --> 50:46.880] family policies that just assume that it's only married couples who are going to have children [50:47.680 --> 50:54.000] or the just ignore the fact that singles also have responsibility for aging parents. There are [50:54.000 --> 51:01.440] so many ways in which we are still acting as though American families were like 1950s sitcoms [51:01.440 --> 51:07.440] instead of the tremendous diversity. Most people will marry in America, but most people will spend [51:07.440 --> 51:12.480] substantial portions of their adult life outside marriage. It's a more fluid situation than it [51:12.480 --> 51:17.280] used to be. They'll move through. They make cohabit for a while. They may get married. They may get [51:17.280 --> 51:23.600] divorced. So these are the sorts of things that our social policy and even our emotional expectations [51:23.600 --> 51:28.560] of family life have to catch up with these changing realities. Along with the long-term trends, [51:28.560 --> 51:34.640] there are some short-term ones too. The number of newlyweds is way down. Is that going to push [51:35.200 --> 51:40.560] that 50 percent threshold down so that married people are a minority of American adults? [51:42.000 --> 51:46.960] It may, it may depends how long this recession on the aftermath of the recession last. [51:46.960 --> 51:52.720] This is a long-term trend that decline in the proportion of married couples in the population, [51:52.720 --> 51:57.760] but it's been definitely, I think, exacerbated by the recession. But on the other hand, we may see [51:57.760 --> 52:02.960] some bounce back after that as we have in previous recessions and depressions when the marriage rate fell. [52:02.960 --> 52:10.240] How is who gets married shaped by income, education, factors like that? [52:11.680 --> 52:18.240] Well, one of the things we're seeing is a tremendous class divide in the access to stable [52:18.240 --> 52:25.120] satisfying relationships, whether married or cohabiting. And the marriages of college-educated [52:25.120 --> 52:29.840] couples have been getting more and more stable. The divorce rates have been falling. But that's [52:29.840 --> 52:36.880] not so for high school dropouts and even increasingly for high school-educated couples. It seems [52:36.880 --> 52:42.480] that one of the issues going on here is that we expect more of marriage than ever before. Both [52:42.480 --> 52:51.360] as an economic partnership and as an emotional partnership. And as it becomes possible or less possible [52:51.360 --> 52:57.760] to count on a man having a steady job, the real wages of high school graduates today are [52:57.760 --> 53:03.200] four dollars an hour lower in constant dollars than they were back in 1970. They're much more [53:03.200 --> 53:08.640] likely to experience job insecurity, much less likely to have pensions. So a woman, a low income [53:08.640 --> 53:14.240] woman making a decision about marrying such a man has to figure out, well, what are the benefits [53:14.240 --> 53:19.360] of this as compared to the possibility that we might divorce in the future or as compared to [53:19.360 --> 53:24.480] what would happen if I invested in my own education and earnings power? And so I do think we're [53:24.480 --> 53:29.680] seeing a class divide that's quite troublesome. I think that it partly reflects growing economic [53:29.680 --> 53:35.760] inequality in our society, but of course it exacerbates it as well. Stephanie Cooldz, thanks for joining us. [53:35.760 --> 53:38.240] My pleasure, Ray. Thank you. [53:45.840 --> 53:50.080] And again, the major developments of the day Republican presidential candidate spent another [53:50.080 --> 53:55.440] long day hunting for votes going into the final weekend before the Iowa caucuses. Another poll [53:55.440 --> 54:01.120] showed Mitt Romney and Ron Paul atop the field. And an outpouring of protesters filled cities [54:01.120 --> 54:07.200] across Syria and government troops opened fire again. The opposition said at least 22 people were [54:07.200 --> 54:11.520] killed. And do Hari Srinivasan for what's on the news hour online, Hari? [54:12.080 --> 54:16.080] There's much more on the coming Iowa caucuses, including Gwen Eiffel's take on why the early [54:16.080 --> 54:20.800] contest matter and what some Republican voters want from the candidates. And patchwork nations [54:20.800 --> 54:26.720] look at some GOP hopefuls betting big on sparsely populated counties in Iowa, plus on the rundown [54:26.720 --> 54:31.440] view of slideshow of some of the biggest news stories of 2011 in the U.S. and around the world. [54:31.440 --> 54:56.480] All that more is on our website news hour.pbs.org Jeff. And that's the news hour for tonight. On Monday, we'll look at the fallout in Egypt after the military rated U.S. back organizations. I'm Jeffrey Brown. And I'm Jim Laira, Washington Week and be seen later this evening on most PBS stations. We'll see you online and again here Monday evening. Have a nice new year's holiday weekend. Thank you. And good night. [54:56.480 --> 55:03.680] Major funding for the PBS news hour has been provided by [55:27.440 --> 55:33.840] moving our economy for 160 years. BNSF, the engine net connects us. [55:35.680 --> 55:38.480] Intel, sponsors of tomorrow. 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