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[00:16.640 --> 00:21.020]  Another poll in Iowa shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul
[00:21.020 --> 00:23.380]  leading the Republican field.
[00:23.380 --> 00:25.680]  Good evening, I'm Jim Lara.
[00:25.680 --> 00:27.080]  And I'm Jeffrey Brown.
[00:27.080 --> 00:29.360]  On the news hour tonight from Des Moines,
[00:29.360 --> 00:33.120]  Judy Woodruff has the latest on the GOP race.
[00:33.120 --> 00:36.880]  With just three days left until the presidential caucuses,
[00:36.880 --> 00:39.200]  more than a third of Iowa Republicans
[00:39.200 --> 00:41.960]  say they still don't know whom they'll vote for.
[00:41.960 --> 00:44.240]  So candidates and their organizations
[00:44.240 --> 00:47.680]  are working overtime to get their supporters out.
[00:47.680 --> 00:51.400]  Judy talked with five of those undecided Iowans
[00:51.400 --> 00:54.840]  about what will determine their choices on Tuesday night.
[00:54.840 --> 00:57.960]  Plus Mark Shields here and David Brooks in Iowa
[00:57.960 --> 00:59.920]  analyzed the week's news.
[00:59.920 --> 01:03.480]  Then Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago
[01:03.480 --> 01:06.520]  reports on the surprising rise of poverty
[01:06.520 --> 01:10.320]  in the suburban neighborhoods of one of the nation's wealthiest
[01:10.320 --> 01:11.720]  counties.
[01:11.720 --> 01:12.640]  It's exploded.
[01:12.640 --> 01:16.520]  It has gone from something that was rarely encountered
[01:16.520 --> 01:20.680]  in this community to an issue that we encounter every day.
[01:20.680 --> 01:23.800]  And RaceWire's looks at marriage trends in America
[01:23.800 --> 01:27.200]  as fewer couples tie the knot, and those who do are older
[01:27.200 --> 01:28.880]  than ever.
[01:28.880 --> 01:32.520]  That's all ahead on tonight's news hour.
[01:32.520 --> 01:37.960]  Major funding for the PBS news hour has been provided by.
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[02:43.800 --> 02:45.520]  Republican presidential candidates
[02:45.520 --> 02:48.600]  spent another long day hunting for votes in Iowa.
[02:48.600 --> 02:50.480]  They were heading into the final weekend
[02:50.480 --> 02:52.880]  before the presidential election season officially
[02:52.880 --> 02:57.160]  opens with Tuesday night's caucuses.
[02:57.160 --> 02:59.280]  The weather turned colder and windy,
[02:59.280 --> 03:03.080]  but Mitt Romney, warm to his audience as another new poll,
[03:03.080 --> 03:07.680]  this one from NBC Marist, showed him pacing the field.
[03:07.680 --> 03:10.520]  If you can get out here in this cold and this wind
[03:10.520 --> 03:12.360]  and a little bit of rain coming down,
[03:12.360 --> 03:14.200]  then you can sure get out on Tuesday night.
[03:14.200 --> 03:16.960]  And you can sure find a few people to bring with you.
[03:16.960 --> 03:19.240]  One key supporter showed up today,
[03:19.240 --> 03:21.320]  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie,
[03:21.320 --> 03:23.760]  campaigning with Romney in West Des Moines.
[03:23.760 --> 03:26.000]  It really energizes me, the young people.
[03:26.000 --> 03:29.600]  Texas Congressman Ron Paul was either tied for first
[03:29.600 --> 03:31.000]  or a close second.
[03:31.000 --> 03:35.640]  But 41% in the NBC poll said his libertarian leanings
[03:35.640 --> 03:37.840]  make him unacceptable.
[03:37.840 --> 03:40.840]  Newt Gingrich had been the Iowa front-runner just a few weeks
[03:40.840 --> 03:43.200]  back, but has fallen far behind.
[03:43.200 --> 03:45.840]  In Des Moines today, remembering his late mother's
[03:45.840 --> 03:48.360]  mental health problems, he grew emotional.
[03:48.360 --> 03:50.640]  And my whole emphasis on brain science
[03:50.640 --> 03:56.880]  comes in directly from dealing, see how you have the emotion,
[03:56.880 --> 04:01.840]  from dealing with the real problems of real people
[04:01.840 --> 04:03.240]  in my family.
[04:03.240 --> 04:05.120]  And so it's not a theory.
[04:05.120 --> 04:06.840]  It's in fact my mother.
[04:06.840 --> 04:09.200]  This is very personal for me.
[04:09.200 --> 04:10.560]  It's not just political.
[04:10.560 --> 04:12.160]  It's not just public.
[04:12.160 --> 04:15.400]  The moment recalled Hillary Clinton's emotional moment
[04:15.400 --> 04:19.440]  just before the 2008 Democratic primary in New Hampshire.
[04:19.440 --> 04:21.400]  She went on to win there.
[04:21.400 --> 04:25.360]  Back in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
[04:25.360 --> 04:28.400]  continued pressing to add to his late surge.
[04:28.400 --> 04:30.920]  He's now running third.
[04:30.920 --> 04:34.240]  Another former front-runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry,
[04:34.240 --> 04:39.440]  was running fourth or fifth, depending on the poll.
[04:39.440 --> 04:42.160]  And Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman,
[04:42.160 --> 04:46.320]  who lost two top staffers this week, was trailing the field.
[04:46.320 --> 04:49.280]  She discounted the low turnout at a meet and greet event
[04:49.280 --> 04:51.040]  in early Iowa this afternoon.
[04:51.040 --> 04:54.120]  I guess our effort wasn't to bring crowds out.
[04:54.120 --> 04:55.400]  We were just dropping in.
[04:55.400 --> 04:59.200]  As the weekend arrived, the race in Iowa remained fluid.
[04:59.200 --> 05:02.440]  Many likely caucus-goers said they were still deciding
[05:02.440 --> 05:05.600]  on which candidate to support come Tuesday.
[05:05.600 --> 05:07.880]  Judy Woodruff is in Iowa reporting for us
[05:07.880 --> 05:10.040]  through the voting next Tuesday night.
[05:10.040 --> 05:13.480]  I spoke with her a short time ago in Des Moines.
[05:13.480 --> 05:15.160]  So, Judy, for a long time, it seemed
[05:15.160 --> 05:17.840]  Mitt Romney wasn't going to fight that hard in Iowa,
[05:17.840 --> 05:20.760]  but no more, right?
[05:20.760 --> 05:21.680]  Well, that's right, Jeff.
[05:21.680 --> 05:22.440]  It looks that way.
[05:22.440 --> 05:24.360]  The first thing we need to say is, what a large number
[05:24.360 --> 05:26.800]  of undecided voters there still are in Iowa.
[05:26.800 --> 05:29.000]  And you'll hear a little bit more about that in a minute
[05:29.000 --> 05:31.760]  when you see the interview I did with some voters last night.
[05:31.760 --> 05:33.560]  But having said that, you are right.
[05:33.560 --> 05:37.520]  Mitt Romney on top in two of the most recent polls,
[05:37.520 --> 05:39.560]  right at around 25%.
[05:39.560 --> 05:42.280]  That seems to be so far a ceiling for him.
[05:42.280 --> 05:44.360]  That's the same percentage of the vote Mitt Romney
[05:44.360 --> 05:47.240]  had four years ago when he lost.
[05:47.240 --> 05:50.640]  Because at that point, the conservative vote in Iowa
[05:50.640 --> 05:53.600]  was coalescing around one candidate, Mike Huckabee.
[05:53.600 --> 05:57.680]  This time, the conservative vote is looking around,
[05:57.680 --> 06:00.080]  spread among four or five different candidates.
[06:00.080 --> 06:02.880]  That's working to Mitt Romney's advantage.
[06:02.880 --> 06:05.120]  And, Jeff, I should say, right hot on his heels
[06:05.120 --> 06:07.960]  are Ron Paul, the libertarian, attracting
[06:07.960 --> 06:09.520]  a lot of younger voters.
[06:09.520 --> 06:12.160]  And as you also mentioned, Rick Santorum,
[06:12.160 --> 06:15.320]  stressing his Christian conservative views.
[06:15.320 --> 06:18.240]  And maybe all that work that Rick Santorum has put into Iowa
[06:18.240 --> 06:19.320]  may be paying off.
[06:19.320 --> 06:21.000]  Well, tell me about Ron Paul.
[06:21.000 --> 06:24.200]  Speaking of Ron Paul, you were at an event of his last night.
[06:24.200 --> 06:25.280]  Now, what did you see?
[06:25.280 --> 06:28.520]  Where is the support coming from?
[06:28.520 --> 06:30.280]  It is coming from there.
[06:30.280 --> 06:34.840]  It's traditional that a chunk of the Iowa Republican vote
[06:34.840 --> 06:36.480]  tends to be libertarian.
[06:36.480 --> 06:40.680]  And of course, that is Ron Paul's philosophy.
[06:40.680 --> 06:44.200]  So that it's a lot of it is young people, college students.
[06:44.200 --> 06:46.600]  You go to a college campus, you talk to many of them.
[06:46.600 --> 06:48.640]  They're very excited about Ron Paul.
[06:48.640 --> 06:51.160]  His vote is very enthusiastic.
[06:51.160 --> 06:52.320]  It's loyal.
[06:52.320 --> 06:53.880]  They are going to turn out.
[06:53.880 --> 06:55.560]  The question is, how large are they?
[06:55.560 --> 06:59.400]  Because there's a sizable percentage of Iowa Republicans
[06:59.400 --> 07:01.800]  who say they could never vote for Ron Paul,
[07:01.800 --> 07:04.000]  because they don't like his foreign policy.
[07:04.000 --> 07:06.320]  But he is going to get a significant turnout.
[07:06.320 --> 07:09.680]  He's got students in the state who've come in from other parts
[07:09.680 --> 07:12.000]  of the country who are working for him.
[07:12.000 --> 07:14.800]  Even though I should say, Jeff, Ron Paul himself
[07:14.800 --> 07:17.040]  is going home to Texas for the weekend
[07:17.040 --> 07:19.360]  to celebrate New Year's Eve with his family.
[07:19.360 --> 07:23.960]  Now, beyond it getting cold, what about atmospherics,
[07:23.960 --> 07:25.040]  if I can use that word?
[07:25.040 --> 07:29.000]  What's your sense there of how worked up people are?
[07:29.000 --> 07:31.760]  What are the campaigns going through as they
[07:31.760 --> 07:35.120]  go into the real crunch time?
[07:35.120 --> 07:37.160]  Well, they're all gearing up.
[07:37.160 --> 07:38.960]  We ran in this morning at a hotel.
[07:38.960 --> 07:42.400]  We ran into a name that's, I think, familiar to many
[07:42.400 --> 07:45.720]  of our viewers, Joe Albaugh, who was President George W.
[07:45.720 --> 07:49.040]  Bush's head of FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management
[07:49.040 --> 07:49.640]  Administration.
[07:49.640 --> 07:53.480]  He's working for Rick Perry, organizing the state.
[07:53.480 --> 07:55.880]  And the way he put it today, he said,
[07:55.880 --> 07:58.720]  at this stage of the game, you've identified your supporters.
[07:58.720 --> 07:59.880]  It's all mechanics.
[07:59.880 --> 08:01.760]  It's getting those people out.
[08:01.760 --> 08:03.480]  The people who liked you from the beginning,
[08:03.480 --> 08:06.160]  the people who are still undecided.
[08:06.160 --> 08:08.920]  The Romney campaign, working the state very hard,
[08:08.920 --> 08:13.280]  they say they've only seen about 10% of what we're doing.
[08:13.280 --> 08:15.440]  90% of it's been underground.
[08:15.440 --> 08:16.880]  We're getting people out.
[08:16.880 --> 08:19.200]  You ask about enthusiasm everywhere you go.
[08:19.200 --> 08:20.680]  Even Democrats will tell you they're
[08:20.680 --> 08:23.040]  excited to see Iowa getting attention.
[08:23.040 --> 08:24.840]  They're excited to see the press here,
[08:24.840 --> 08:26.600]  even if they don't like any of these candidates
[08:26.600 --> 08:29.960]  and they don't plan to vote for them in November.
[08:29.960 --> 08:32.000]  These caucuses are still a big deal.
[08:32.000 --> 08:35.520]  So we expect a lot of attention on Tuesday night.
[08:35.520 --> 08:37.720]  All right, Judy Woodruff is in Des Moines,
[08:37.720 --> 08:39.360]  and we'll be there through Tuesday night.
[08:39.360 --> 08:41.560]  Thanks a lot, Judy.
[08:41.560 --> 08:42.280]  Thank you.
[08:42.280 --> 08:44.440]  Still to come on the News Hour tonight.
[08:44.440 --> 08:47.320]  Iowa voters still making up their minds.
[08:47.320 --> 08:49.360]  Shields and brooks.
[08:49.360 --> 08:51.480]  Poverty in the suburbs.
[08:51.480 --> 08:54.880]  And the decline in Americans marrying.
[08:54.880 --> 08:56.800]  But first, the other news of this day.
[08:56.800 --> 08:58.880]  Here's Hari Sreenivasan.
[08:58.880 --> 09:01.040]  An outpouring of anti-government protesters
[09:01.040 --> 09:03.040]  filled cities across Syria today.
[09:03.040 --> 09:06.200]  It marked a new challenge to President Bashar al-Assad.
[09:06.200 --> 09:10.160]  The opposition reported as many as 250,000 people turned out
[09:10.160 --> 09:11.840]  in both Idlib and Hama.
[09:11.840 --> 09:13.480]  And there were many thousands more
[09:13.480 --> 09:15.680]  in homes, Douma, and Daraa.
[09:15.680 --> 09:19.040]  Protesters said troops gunned down at least 22 people.
[09:19.040 --> 09:21.400]  We have a report narrated by Andy Davies of Independent
[09:21.400 --> 09:23.160]  Television News.
[09:23.160 --> 09:24.440]  Al-Assad, Al-Assad.
[09:24.440 --> 09:27.680]  Homs, in the northwest of Syria this morning.
[09:27.680 --> 09:29.960]  Some are now calling this the Marta City,
[09:29.960 --> 09:32.640]  given the numbers killed here in recent months.
[09:32.640 --> 09:34.800]  In front of the camera reads the message,
[09:34.800 --> 09:37.280]  this is the Friday for marching towards the squares
[09:37.280 --> 09:38.880]  of freedom.
[09:38.880 --> 09:41.360]  And so they did, gathering in their thousands
[09:41.360 --> 09:45.240]  in the city's main square, significantly for the first time
[09:45.240 --> 09:45.880]  in months.
[09:53.240 --> 09:55.600]  In towns across Syria, the opposition movement
[09:55.600 --> 09:58.880]  rallied its support base following Friday prayers.
[09:58.880 --> 10:02.360]  Hundreds of thousands reportedly took to the streets,
[10:02.360 --> 10:04.760]  emboldened perhaps by the recent arrival
[10:04.760 --> 10:08.600]  of yellow-vested Arab League monitors in the country.
[10:08.600 --> 10:11.840]  This intended as a statement to those observers,
[10:11.840 --> 10:14.800]  regime violence will not quell this uprising.
[10:14.800 --> 10:29.080]  This footage was apparently recorded today in Douma.
[10:29.080 --> 10:33.160]  It's just six miles from the center of the capital Damascus.
[10:33.160 --> 10:35.960]  It's not clear what caused this particular explosion,
[10:35.960 --> 10:39.520]  but opposition activists alleged Syrian security forces
[10:39.520 --> 10:45.200]  had thrown nail bombs into the crowd.
[10:45.200 --> 10:48.400]  There was violence documented also in the city of Hamar.
[10:48.400 --> 10:53.920]  Five were shot dead here today, alleged one activist.
[10:53.920 --> 10:55.640]  A fortnight ago, the United Nations
[10:55.640 --> 10:58.280]  estimated that more than 5,000 have been killed
[10:58.280 --> 11:02.160]  by Syrian security forces since the uprising began.
[11:02.160 --> 11:06.880]  One influential campaign group says it's now more than 6,000.
[11:06.880 --> 11:09.240]  It's a figure disputed by the government
[11:09.240 --> 11:11.760]  and again today by its media.
[11:11.760 --> 11:13.520]  This reporter claims he's tracked down
[11:13.520 --> 11:15.560]  a number of people who were supposedly
[11:15.560 --> 11:18.000]  killed by security forces.
[11:18.000 --> 11:21.080]  State Run TV was broadcasting today live from the center
[11:21.080 --> 11:23.520]  of Damascus and other cities.
[11:23.520 --> 11:27.640]  They were showing rallies in support of al-Assad's regime.
[11:27.640 --> 11:29.480]  In Pakistan today, at least nine people
[11:29.480 --> 11:32.320]  were killed on a car bomb exploded in the city of Quetta
[11:32.320 --> 11:34.560]  outside the home of a local politician.
[11:34.560 --> 11:37.080]  Pakistani television showed video of victims being rushed
[11:37.080 --> 11:40.840]  to a nearby hospital. More than 20 people were wounded there.
[11:40.840 --> 11:43.000]  Spain has imposed new austerity measures,
[11:43.000 --> 11:46.760]  including a temporary tax hike to raise almost $8 billion.
[11:46.760 --> 11:49.240]  The two-year increase would affect the wealthy.
[11:49.240 --> 11:51.160]  The newly elected center-right government
[11:51.160 --> 11:55.280]  also announced more than $11 billion in spending cuts today.
[11:55.280 --> 11:57.280]  These are all part of efforts to rein
[11:57.280 --> 11:59.040]  in the country's growing debt.
[11:59.040 --> 12:01.840]  Wall Street stumbled on the last trading day of the year
[12:01.840 --> 12:03.880]  with nothing to give the market much of a boost.
[12:03.880 --> 12:06.600]  The Dow Jones industrial average lost 69 points
[12:06.600 --> 12:08.800]  to close at 12,217.
[12:08.800 --> 12:11.920]  The Nasdaq fell eight points to close at 26.05.
[12:11.920 --> 12:15.760]  For the year, the Dow gained 5%, 5.5%,
[12:15.760 --> 12:18.120]  and the Nasdaq fell nearly 2%.
[12:18.120 --> 12:20.720]  The Standard & Poor's 500 finished the year down
[12:20.720 --> 12:22.760]  less than a tenth of a point.
[12:22.760 --> 12:25.280]  Two NASA satellites are set to start orbiting the moon
[12:25.280 --> 12:26.680]  over New Year's weekend.
[12:26.680 --> 12:28.400]  The probes were launched in September
[12:28.400 --> 12:31.280]  as part of the GRAIL mission for gravity, recovery,
[12:31.280 --> 12:33.080]  and interior laboratory.
[12:33.080 --> 12:35.480]  Each satellite is about the size of a washing machine.
[12:35.480 --> 12:39.200]  There to fly in tandem to map the moon's gravitational field,
[12:39.200 --> 12:43.400]  that data could reveal the moon's interior and how it formed.
[12:43.400 --> 12:44.840]  Those are some of today's major stories.
[12:44.840 --> 12:46.360]  Now back to Jim.
[12:46.360 --> 12:48.840]  And we return to Iowa.
[12:48.840 --> 12:51.360]  Last evening, Judy Woodruff spoke with five
[12:51.360 --> 12:55.920]  still undecided voters, all registered Republicans.
[12:55.920 --> 12:59.280]  They were selected with the help of civic and educational
[12:59.280 --> 13:01.800]  organizations in Iowa.
[13:01.800 --> 13:04.120]  Thank you all for joining us, and to Jim Carly
[13:04.120 --> 13:05.960]  for hosting us in your home.
[13:05.960 --> 13:06.720]  You're welcome.
[13:06.720 --> 13:08.480]  As you look at the country, how do you
[13:08.480 --> 13:10.480]  think things are going overall?
[13:10.480 --> 13:13.480]  I think we're going in the wrong direction.
[13:13.480 --> 13:16.920]  I think that there needs to be a 360 turnaround
[13:16.920 --> 13:20.160]  into where we're going now with the economy.
[13:20.160 --> 13:24.200]  And I think also our world standing has declined.
[13:24.200 --> 13:28.240]  We read that the Iowa economy is doing pretty well, Jim.
[13:28.240 --> 13:32.360]  Your unemployment rate overall is pretty good.
[13:32.360 --> 13:35.120]  But you still have a pretty negative view
[13:35.120 --> 13:35.920]  about the economy.
[13:35.920 --> 13:36.480]  Is that right?
[13:36.480 --> 13:39.120]  Well, my wife and I were both retired.
[13:39.120 --> 13:41.200]  We have our pensions, but we also have investments,
[13:41.200 --> 13:42.960]  which took a pretty big hit.
[13:42.960 --> 13:45.840]  And it's the uncertainty of what's going to happen.
[13:45.840 --> 13:46.840]  We're doing fine now.
[13:46.840 --> 13:50.520]  But when it's not doing anything to get better,
[13:50.520 --> 13:54.240]  and Congress can't agree on what day of the week it is,
[13:54.240 --> 13:56.400]  how are we ever going to get anything solved?
[13:56.400 --> 13:58.240]  So we are quite concerned about the future
[13:58.240 --> 13:59.600]  and what's going to happen there.
[13:59.600 --> 14:00.960]  B.J., what about for you?
[14:00.960 --> 14:02.760]  I mean, personally, how do you think
[14:02.760 --> 14:05.680]  things are going for you, for your family?
[14:05.680 --> 14:07.240]  Right now, things are a little bit better.
[14:07.240 --> 14:10.240]  But we've had some tough times.
[14:10.240 --> 14:13.080]  When I say that, I've never clipped a coupon in my life.
[14:13.080 --> 14:16.080]  And now I take the Sunday paper not to read the news,
[14:16.080 --> 14:18.160]  but to go through the coupons and see what's in there.
[14:18.160 --> 14:22.440]  And I may only say $5, but I'm so excited about that $5.
[14:22.440 --> 14:23.640]  And, Dave, what about you?
[14:23.640 --> 14:26.440]  Well, I personally, being self-employed,
[14:26.440 --> 14:29.240]  being in the car business, I've been pretty affected by it.
[14:29.240 --> 14:31.600]  I think a lot of the small dealers have been hurt.
[14:31.600 --> 14:34.560]  The impending crisis with the no lending
[14:34.560 --> 14:37.200]  and people are unsure of how to spend their money
[14:37.200 --> 14:40.200]  or when to spend their money or if they should spend their money,
[14:40.200 --> 14:42.920]  I think that's put a hurt on everybody.
[14:42.920 --> 14:45.960]  People just don't have the money to spend it right now.
[14:45.960 --> 14:48.040]  And if we can get the economy going,
[14:48.040 --> 14:50.160]  it'll heal all the social problems.
[14:50.160 --> 14:52.320]  The social problems will all be by themselves.
[14:52.320 --> 14:54.280]  We just need to get the economy going right now.
[14:54.280 --> 14:58.520]  Sam, how do you see the importance of this election
[14:58.520 --> 15:01.320]  and how closely have you been following it?
[15:01.320 --> 15:02.840]  I've been following it very closely.
[15:02.840 --> 15:04.600]  I've been lucky enough to shake the hand
[15:04.600 --> 15:07.920]  of every presidential candidate and look them in the eye,
[15:07.920 --> 15:10.200]  which I think says a lot about being in Iowa.
[15:10.200 --> 15:14.080]  And you can also learn a lot from that exchange.
[15:14.080 --> 15:15.640]  I think this election is really going
[15:15.640 --> 15:19.320]  to be a referendum on some really important issues
[15:19.320 --> 15:20.080]  to this country.
[15:20.080 --> 15:25.040]  I think spending, how to balance the budget, the national debt,
[15:25.040 --> 15:26.400]  all those issues are really going
[15:26.400 --> 15:28.360]  to be decided by this election.
[15:28.360 --> 15:31.320]  And the American people are going to have to decide what
[15:31.320 --> 15:34.440]  solutions we want to go about to solve those problems.
[15:34.440 --> 15:36.360]  BJ, what do you think right now?
[15:36.360 --> 15:37.760]  I mean, where are you leaning?
[15:37.760 --> 15:40.880]  The caucuses are just a few days away.
[15:40.880 --> 15:44.440]  I'm leaning toward Newt Gingrich.
[15:44.440 --> 15:47.160]  I've been leaning that way for a while,
[15:47.160 --> 15:49.720]  because I think he's authentic.
[15:49.720 --> 15:54.240]  He has success working with the opposite party.
[15:54.240 --> 16:00.280]  And he seems to have a vision for the future.
[16:00.280 --> 16:03.960]  Is there anybody else you're thinking about other than
[16:03.960 --> 16:05.240]  Gingrich at this point?
[16:05.240 --> 16:09.560]  I really like Michelle Bachman, because if you want to know
[16:09.560 --> 16:12.680]  the truth, I'd like to see any man,
[16:12.680 --> 16:14.640]  and I suppose this is a feminist perspective,
[16:14.640 --> 16:19.600]  I'd like to see any man start a business, go to school,
[16:19.600 --> 16:23.640]  raise five children, and have 23 foster children.
[16:23.640 --> 16:25.560]  I don't think a man could do that.
[16:25.560 --> 16:27.720]  So I think she runs circles around them.
[16:27.720 --> 16:30.360]  So and I like what she stands for.
[16:30.360 --> 16:32.920]  So she's a good multitasker.
[16:32.920 --> 16:34.000]  Sam, what about you?
[16:34.000 --> 16:35.840]  Yeah, it seems to me with a lot of these candidates,
[16:35.840 --> 16:37.560]  I'm leaning away.
[16:37.560 --> 16:39.600]  And so I think two candidates that I'm leaning towards
[16:39.600 --> 16:43.200]  would be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
[16:43.200 --> 16:45.760]  I think looking at their records,
[16:45.760 --> 16:49.360]  Mitt Romney's been a turnaround artist his entire career.
[16:49.360 --> 16:51.520]  And I think that he could do a really great job turning
[16:51.520 --> 16:52.920]  around the economy.
[16:52.920 --> 16:55.760]  And then Ron Paul really speaks to me as a young person.
[16:55.760 --> 16:57.720]  He's got a great youth following,
[16:57.720 --> 17:01.440]  and I really like a lot of his libertarian stances.
[17:01.440 --> 17:03.080]  What about you, Jim?
[17:03.080 --> 17:05.400]  Are you where are you leaning right now?
[17:05.400 --> 17:08.040]  Well, if I vote principles, which I'm really leaning at
[17:08.040 --> 17:10.280]  just recently here, things have happened,
[17:10.280 --> 17:11.880]  and I'm standing for that would put me
[17:11.880 --> 17:14.480]  in the Rick Santorum camp.
[17:14.480 --> 17:17.440]  I like the principles that he has.
[17:17.440 --> 17:19.960]  I think that's where a lot of our problem is.
[17:19.960 --> 17:22.640]  We don't have virtuous and moral leaders.
[17:22.640 --> 17:23.520]  Victoria, what about you?
[17:23.520 --> 17:27.560]  Where is your head right now, or heart, or both?
[17:27.560 --> 17:29.240]  It really is a struggle.
[17:29.240 --> 17:30.440]  I'm just being honest.
[17:30.440 --> 17:31.160]  I don't know.
[17:31.160 --> 17:33.240]  I don't have that.
[17:33.240 --> 17:35.960]  It was so funny because for Huckabee, I was like, yes,
[17:35.960 --> 17:36.800]  this is my guy.
[17:36.800 --> 17:38.120]  I want him.
[17:38.120 --> 17:38.960]  I'm going to go out.
[17:38.960 --> 17:39.960]  It was freezing.
[17:39.960 --> 17:41.560]  It was snow and ice.
[17:41.560 --> 17:44.160]  Horrible last time.
[17:44.160 --> 17:46.440]  I don't feel that for any candidate right now.
[17:46.440 --> 17:47.800]  And that scares me.
[17:47.800 --> 17:51.120]  So that's why I'm just not loyal to any one person
[17:51.120 --> 17:52.520]  at this point.
[17:52.520 --> 17:53.640]  Dave, what about you?
[17:53.640 --> 17:56.600]  How are you leaning right now?
[17:56.600 --> 17:58.280]  We have a couple of candidates, I think,
[17:58.280 --> 18:00.440]  should have came to Iowa, should have campaigned here.
[18:00.440 --> 18:02.920]  I think Mr. Huntsman's one of them.
[18:02.920 --> 18:04.680]  He should have thrown his hat in the ring.
[18:04.680 --> 18:06.920]  He says a lot of good things.
[18:06.920 --> 18:09.440]  But whichever candidate is selected,
[18:09.440 --> 18:14.880]  we need to get behind the candidate and beat Obama in 2012.
[18:14.880 --> 18:15.760]  Jim, what about that?
[18:15.760 --> 18:17.400]  Because it sounds like you're saying something a little bit
[18:17.400 --> 18:18.960]  different from what Dave is saying.
[18:18.960 --> 18:22.080]  I don't think we need to go into the polls
[18:22.080 --> 18:25.240]  with the only thing on our mind is, who can beat him?
[18:25.240 --> 18:29.240]  There's still 10 months to go before the election.
[18:29.240 --> 18:31.200]  And one of those down the bottom may
[18:31.200 --> 18:34.440]  be the rising star in actuality once they get out
[18:34.440 --> 18:36.120]  into the rest of the nation.
[18:36.120 --> 18:38.600]  And so I think we need to pick good candidate.
[18:38.600 --> 18:41.360]  I favor one that has good principles that I can trust.
[18:41.360 --> 18:42.040]  Santorum.
[18:42.040 --> 18:43.760]  Santorum, right?
[18:43.760 --> 18:45.800]  But I think part of the problem that we have in this,
[18:45.800 --> 18:49.200]  I've never seen this many people so undecided this late
[18:49.200 --> 18:49.800]  in the game.
[18:49.800 --> 18:52.960]  I think a lot of that has to do with the massive number
[18:52.960 --> 18:55.320]  of debates that we've had and the forum
[18:55.320 --> 18:58.000]  that the debates have had to where people are attacking each
[18:58.000 --> 18:58.160]  other.
[18:58.160 --> 18:59.560]  I mean, we're attacking our own.
[18:59.560 --> 19:03.800]  Anybody else on why it's so hard to make a decision this time?
[19:03.800 --> 19:07.200]  I mean, you've touched on the fact that it is hard,
[19:07.200 --> 19:09.000]  but any thoughts about why?
[19:09.000 --> 19:09.640]  Vijay.
[19:09.640 --> 19:14.400]  Mitt Romney cannot get past a certain level.
[19:14.400 --> 19:17.080]  And he couldn't go up against Huckabee last time,
[19:17.080 --> 19:19.720]  although he spent gobs and gobs and gobs of money.
[19:19.720 --> 19:22.640]  And to me, Mitt Romney is the status quo
[19:22.640 --> 19:24.160]  in the Republican Party.
[19:24.160 --> 19:26.360]  And I think a lot of us, I don't know how many of us
[19:26.360 --> 19:28.520]  are Tea Partiers or Libertarians,
[19:28.520 --> 19:30.680]  we're dissatisfied with the status quo of the Republican
[19:30.680 --> 19:33.840]  Party, and that's what Mitt Romney represents.
[19:33.840 --> 19:37.160]  So I think that's why there's the fight, not the infighting,
[19:37.160 --> 19:39.360]  but the turmoil in our party.
[19:39.360 --> 19:40.520]  Sam, what do you say to that?
[19:40.520 --> 19:44.320]  Because you said Romney was somebody you could support.
[19:44.320 --> 19:46.320]  In fact, you mentioned him first.
[19:46.320 --> 19:51.080]  Yeah, I think that Mitt Romney really brings a lot to the table.
[19:51.080 --> 19:52.920]  And if you look at him against Newt Gingrich,
[19:52.920 --> 19:55.360]  I mean, I don't mean to get candidate versus candidate here,
[19:55.360 --> 19:58.760]  but Newt Gingrich has really been the textbook Washington
[19:58.760 --> 20:02.640]  insiders for the last 40 years.
[20:02.640 --> 20:05.160]  And so I don't know if I'm comfortable having
[20:05.160 --> 20:07.400]  that background in the White House.
[20:07.400 --> 20:09.760]  Mitt Romney is not a true conservative.
[20:09.760 --> 20:12.240]  And we talk about being enthusiastic.
[20:12.240 --> 20:14.640]  Conservatives cannot get enthusiastic about him.
[20:14.640 --> 20:18.520]  And that's why I think that there's that vacuum.
[20:18.520 --> 20:19.360]  What about that, Jim?
[20:19.360 --> 20:21.520]  Because I think you're the one who said a few minutes ago,
[20:21.520 --> 20:24.440]  we need somebody who's going to stick with their principles.
[20:24.440 --> 20:24.920]  That's right.
[20:24.920 --> 20:28.240]  And my fear with Romney and why I don't like him
[20:28.240 --> 20:32.360]  is I believe government should be small.
[20:32.360 --> 20:34.240]  Smaller government, less cost.
[20:34.240 --> 20:37.560]  People are responsible, and they take care of themselves.
[20:37.560 --> 20:40.160]  My feeling is anybody that wants to institute health care,
[20:40.160 --> 20:42.760]  and I know they have a state constitution that says they can,
[20:42.760 --> 20:45.160]  but that's somebody that wants big government.
[20:45.160 --> 20:46.880]  Romney, I mean, he's a nice guy.
[20:46.880 --> 20:47.800]  He's polished.
[20:47.800 --> 20:50.640]  He's back for a second time around.
[20:50.640 --> 20:54.280]  But he's just not the person who I will get up
[20:54.280 --> 20:57.400]  and it's no storm to vote for.
[20:57.400 --> 21:00.200]  Some of you have mentioned Santorum.
[21:00.200 --> 21:04.240]  Let me ask you, Sam, why didn't you bring up Rick Santorum?
[21:04.240 --> 21:06.160]  Well, I think my problem with Rick Santorum,
[21:06.160 --> 21:09.160]  as well as some of the other maybe more socially conservative
[21:09.160 --> 21:12.400]  candidates, is I think they dwell too much on social issues.
[21:12.400 --> 21:15.000]  And while they might pass a credential check
[21:15.000 --> 21:17.680]  as far as their economic policies go,
[21:17.680 --> 21:19.000]  I just don't think they're people.
[21:19.000 --> 21:23.760]  I think they alienate moderate voters and independents.
[21:23.760 --> 21:25.320]  And while they might excite the base,
[21:25.320 --> 21:28.320]  I just don't see them doing well at all in a general election.
[21:28.320 --> 21:30.440]  When do you think you're going to make up your mind?
[21:30.440 --> 21:32.480]  Probably Tuesday.
[21:32.480 --> 21:36.880]  I'll have her done by Sunday, and then I'll think about it.
[21:36.880 --> 21:39.320]  Well, we appreciate all of you talking with us
[21:39.320 --> 21:40.640]  about these caucuses.
[21:40.640 --> 21:42.760]  Thank you very much.
[21:42.760 --> 21:43.400]  Thank you.
[21:43.400 --> 21:44.360]  You're very welcome.
[21:44.360 --> 21:46.400]  Thanks for having us.
[21:46.400 --> 21:49.480]  For the record, Texas Governor Rick Perry's name
[21:49.480 --> 21:52.840]  did not come up in Judy's discussion.
[21:52.840 --> 21:55.520]  As we heard in Judy's conversation, four years ago,
[21:55.520 --> 21:57.600]  it was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee,
[21:57.600 --> 21:59.520]  who beat Mitt Romney and all others
[21:59.520 --> 22:02.120]  to win the Iowa Republican Caucus.
[22:02.120 --> 22:04.320]  His success came with the strong support
[22:04.320 --> 22:07.000]  of conservative evangelical Christians.
[22:07.000 --> 22:08.880]  Tonight's edition of Need to Know
[22:08.880 --> 22:11.720]  explores the power of the religious right in Iowa.
[22:11.720 --> 22:15.000]  This excerpt looks at the influence of one man in particular.
[22:15.000 --> 22:18.280]  The correspondent is Rick Carr.
[22:18.280 --> 22:21.480]  Bob Vander Plaats was chairman of Mike Huckabee's Iowa campaign
[22:21.480 --> 22:22.520]  in 08.
[22:22.520 --> 22:25.600]  Then he led a campaign against three state Supreme Court
[22:25.600 --> 22:28.480]  justices who ruled in favor of gay marriage
[22:28.480 --> 22:31.320]  and ended up driving them out of office.
[22:31.320 --> 22:34.280]  Now he runs an advocacy group for social conservatives
[22:34.280 --> 22:35.880]  called the Family Leader.
[22:35.880 --> 22:39.360]  And Fox News calls him a kingmaker in Iowa.
[22:39.360 --> 22:41.880]  The Los Angeles Times wrote that meeting with you
[22:41.880 --> 22:44.040]  is a prerequisite for any candidate who
[22:44.040 --> 22:45.920]  wants to compete in Iowa.
[22:45.920 --> 22:46.760]  Is that true?
[22:46.760 --> 22:50.320]  I don't know if it's a prerequisite to meet with me,
[22:50.320 --> 22:54.720]  but I believe it's the issues that our organization represents.
[22:54.720 --> 23:01.800]  And our supporters are very, very sincere about these issues.
[23:01.800 --> 23:03.480]  They're very interested in who's going
[23:03.480 --> 23:06.800]  to champion these issues.
[23:06.800 --> 23:09.200]  Our supporters are going to show up on caucus night.
[23:09.200 --> 23:12.640]  In November, the Family Leader hosted a forum for GOP
[23:12.640 --> 23:13.560]  Hopefuls.
[23:13.560 --> 23:15.600]  We don't need you to be Republican or Democrat,
[23:15.600 --> 23:18.840]  but we need you to be biblical.
[23:18.840 --> 23:21.520]  And the candidates lined up to tout their fealty
[23:21.520 --> 23:24.360]  to socially conservative positions.
[23:24.360 --> 23:28.200]  The left is prepared to impose intolerance
[23:28.200 --> 23:31.760]  and to drive out of existence traditional religion.
[23:31.760 --> 23:33.680]  They slammed abortion rights.
[23:33.680 --> 23:35.160]  I have supported the amendment that
[23:35.160 --> 23:37.400]  defines life at conception.
[23:37.400 --> 23:41.600]  As long as abortion is legal, at least according
[23:41.600 --> 23:44.120]  to the Supreme Court, legal in this country,
[23:44.120 --> 23:45.520]  we will never have rest.
[23:45.520 --> 23:46.640]  Gay marriage.
[23:46.640 --> 23:50.960]  The family is defined as one man, one woman.
[23:50.960 --> 23:53.200]  No other definition will do.
[23:53.200 --> 23:55.440]  And what they call Obamacare.
[23:55.440 --> 23:57.560]  Obamacare has to go because it's trying
[23:57.560 --> 24:01.200]  to tell us how to deliver health care in our states.
[24:01.200 --> 24:04.400]  The candidates came because conservative evangelical voters
[24:04.400 --> 24:06.600]  are organized and motivated.
[24:06.600 --> 24:08.920]  They turn up on caucus night.
[24:08.920 --> 24:11.400]  And endorsements from socially conservative groups
[24:11.400 --> 24:13.720]  like the Family Leader could turn one of them
[24:13.720 --> 24:16.520]  into the Mike Huckabee of the current campaign.
[24:16.520 --> 24:18.440]  But Van Der Plaat says none of them
[24:18.440 --> 24:20.880]  ended up stealing the hearts of Iowa's conservative
[24:20.880 --> 24:22.520]  evangelicals.
[24:22.520 --> 24:25.120]  We had six candidates that are Thanksgiving family for me.
[24:25.120 --> 24:28.160]  And I think it was my wife afterwards who said,
[24:28.160 --> 24:29.880]  you know, Bob, if we could take those six
[24:29.880 --> 24:31.720]  and put them in a blender and just
[24:31.720 --> 24:33.960]  have the strengths come out and have one candidate.
[24:33.960 --> 24:36.960]  And I said, darling, you're getting awfully close to cloning.
[24:36.960 --> 24:40.520]  But we would have a perfect candidate.
[24:40.520 --> 24:42.400]  And I think what we're realizing today,
[24:42.400 --> 24:44.800]  there is no perfect candidate.
[24:44.800 --> 24:47.280]  A post-cript, Bob Van Der Plaat's ended up
[24:47.280 --> 24:49.240]  endorsing Rick Santorum.
[24:49.240 --> 24:50.760]  There were published reports last week
[24:50.760 --> 24:53.040]  that Van Der Plaat sought up to $1 million
[24:53.040 --> 24:56.960]  for his endorsement, allegations he vigorously denied.
[24:56.960 --> 25:00.760]  Need to know heirs on most PBS stations tonight.
[25:00.760 --> 25:10.760]  And to the analysis of Shields and Brooks,
[25:10.760 --> 25:13.000]  syndicated columnist Mark Shields,
[25:13.000 --> 25:15.440]  New York Times columnist David Brooks.
[25:15.440 --> 25:19.120]  David, from Iowa, do you have a big picture portrait
[25:19.120 --> 25:23.360]  of the setting, the scene there tonight?
[25:23.360 --> 25:25.040]  Well, there are some human interest stories.
[25:25.040 --> 25:27.520]  I got to see Newt Gingrich cry today, something I'd never
[25:27.520 --> 25:28.020]  seen before.
[25:28.020 --> 25:30.560]  He was asking very personal questions about his life.
[25:30.560 --> 25:33.760]  And he talked about how he's sadder and slower than he used
[25:33.760 --> 25:34.040]  to be.
[25:34.040 --> 25:35.520]  And then he was asked about his mom,
[25:35.520 --> 25:37.560]  and his face just dissolved in tears.
[25:37.560 --> 25:39.800]  And you know, the candidates are very tired.
[25:39.800 --> 25:41.080]  Gingrich's numbers are falling.
[25:41.080 --> 25:42.480]  They're under a lot of pressure.
[25:42.480 --> 25:44.560]  And so you got to see that human element.
[25:44.560 --> 25:47.240]  The big thing that comes from all the different campaigns
[25:47.240 --> 25:48.600]  is a sense of looking backward.
[25:48.600 --> 25:51.880]  There's a theme in almost every single race, which is America
[25:51.880 --> 25:53.920]  has lost something that it once had.
[25:53.920 --> 25:55.360]  And so we have to look backward.
[25:55.360 --> 25:58.000]  It's about restoration, restoring old values we've
[25:58.000 --> 25:58.880]  strayed.
[25:58.880 --> 26:01.520]  And this is a theme, which is sort of a negative and pessimistic
[26:01.520 --> 26:04.160]  theme, an almost apocalyptic theme,
[26:04.160 --> 26:07.360]  that one finds in Mitt Romney, one finds it in Gingrich,
[26:07.360 --> 26:09.280]  Rick Santorum, Ron Paul.
[26:09.280 --> 26:12.880]  It's all about we had this magic, and we've lost it.
[26:12.880 --> 26:15.640]  How do you see the big picture, Mark?
[26:15.640 --> 26:18.600]  I think the point David made is one worth repeating.
[26:18.600 --> 26:21.800]  That is, American campaigns are about the future.
[26:21.800 --> 26:25.360]  And this campaign has really been an awful lot about the past.
[26:25.360 --> 26:29.560]  And it's kind of fascinating to see if I like Rick Santorum
[26:29.560 --> 26:33.440]  really vault from nowhere after campaigning 99 counties doing
[26:33.440 --> 26:35.960]  the classic meeting voters and so forth.
[26:35.960 --> 26:40.600]  But absent from his message that I get is any upbeat.
[26:40.600 --> 26:44.000]  I mean, there's sort of a gloom and doom to it.
[26:44.000 --> 26:46.760]  But I think, Jim, this has been a remarkable race.
[26:46.760 --> 26:51.240]  At separate times during this year, six different candidates
[26:51.240 --> 26:53.200]  have led in the polls in Iowa.
[26:53.200 --> 26:55.960]  So it's up for grabs.
[26:55.960 --> 27:00.160]  And it's very much Tuesday will determine who goes forward.
[27:00.160 --> 27:04.720]  I mean, some candidacies will end just outside of the Des Moines
[27:04.720 --> 27:07.120]  Airport on Wednesday morning.
[27:07.120 --> 27:08.800]  All right, let's talk about Romney for a moment.
[27:08.800 --> 27:11.440]  Beginning with you, David, how do you read the situation on Romney
[27:11.440 --> 27:16.960]  right now, where he stands, and what his prospects are in Iowa?
[27:16.960 --> 27:18.440]  Yeah, he's exuding confidence.
[27:18.440 --> 27:20.160]  I think his people are exuding confidence.
[27:20.160 --> 27:22.680]  I went to a rally this morning in the rain.
[27:22.680 --> 27:26.080]  And he was with Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey.
[27:26.080 --> 27:29.280]  And it was just a smooth, effective, not too long,
[27:29.280 --> 27:30.560]  but sort of a corporate race.
[27:30.560 --> 27:33.400]  It was like George Bush in year 2000.
[27:33.400 --> 27:35.760]  And what's interesting is the tactic it's taking.
[27:35.760 --> 27:37.200]  It's very short on policy.
[27:37.200 --> 27:39.000]  It's very long on patriotism.
[27:39.000 --> 27:41.080]  He talks about driving across the country,
[27:41.080 --> 27:43.000]  looking at the national parks.
[27:43.000 --> 27:45.120]  He talks, he sings, or at least recites,
[27:45.120 --> 27:47.320]  some verses from the Star-Spangled Banner.
[27:47.320 --> 27:49.680]  It's as if he's running to be Tom Sawyer.
[27:49.680 --> 27:53.320]  And I think it's a way to establish a connection with voters,
[27:53.320 --> 27:55.840]  even despite questions they may have about Mormonism
[27:55.840 --> 27:56.800]  or anything else.
[27:56.800 --> 27:59.640]  I think it's a way to distinguish in his eyes
[27:59.640 --> 28:01.000]  between him and Barack Obama.
[28:01.000 --> 28:02.440]  He's more mainstream.
[28:02.440 --> 28:04.760]  And then again, this theme of returning,
[28:04.760 --> 28:07.480]  as posing as Tom Sawyer, he's returning
[28:07.480 --> 28:09.720]  to some earlier values.
[28:09.720 --> 28:11.240]  And that may play this year.
[28:11.240 --> 28:12.280]  Mark is absolutely right.
[28:12.280 --> 28:14.560]  The Rick Santorum and a lot of the candidates
[28:14.560 --> 28:15.440]  are very negative.
[28:15.440 --> 28:18.680]  The guy who won it four years ago, Mike Huckabee, very positive.
[28:18.680 --> 28:21.400]  But the mood here has darkened appreciably.
[28:21.400 --> 28:24.560]  And maybe they're in tune with what the voters are hearing
[28:24.560 --> 28:25.240]  right now.
[28:25.240 --> 28:27.280]  But Mark, you heard what Judy said,
[28:27.280 --> 28:29.680]  that her feeling was that the polls show
[28:29.680 --> 28:30.920]  that there's a cap.
[28:30.920 --> 28:33.280]  That cap is still there for Romney.
[28:33.280 --> 28:37.680]  It's working to his advantage because everybody else
[28:37.680 --> 28:39.320]  is so split up, right?
[28:39.320 --> 28:39.920]  That's right, Jim.
[28:39.920 --> 28:42.200]  Nobody has been able to consolidate, for example,
[28:42.200 --> 28:46.800]  the religious conservative vote, although it seems
[28:46.800 --> 28:49.160]  that Rick Santorum has made great inroads there.
[28:49.160 --> 28:53.240]  But no, there seems to be a ceiling on Mitt Romney.
[28:53.240 --> 28:55.560]  It was kind of fascinating at the beginning
[28:55.560 --> 28:58.560]  of the month of December in the Gallup poll,
[28:58.560 --> 29:03.480]  he trailed Newt Gingrich at 37 to 23.
[29:03.480 --> 29:04.880]  14 point deficit.
[29:04.880 --> 29:09.120]  He now leads Newt Gingrich 27 to 22, all right?
[29:09.120 --> 29:11.720]  Now, it means Gingrich has plummeted and all the rest of it.
[29:11.720 --> 29:13.160]  Romney has just moved up, though.
[29:13.160 --> 29:16.480]  He's just broke the 25 point barrier.
[29:16.480 --> 29:18.440]  I think what Romney's campaign has been about
[29:18.440 --> 29:20.920]  is not so great expectations.
[29:20.920 --> 29:24.480]  I mean, they've tried to lower the expectations in Iowa
[29:24.480 --> 29:26.240]  all year, but David's right.
[29:26.240 --> 29:30.320]  I think there's a sense now that they could win in Iowa.
[29:30.320 --> 29:32.760]  Or even if Ron Paul wins, that's not the worst thing
[29:32.760 --> 29:33.480]  in the world to them.
[29:33.480 --> 29:34.960]  They feel in the long run.
[29:34.960 --> 29:40.280]  But the knockout punch in both Iowa and New Hampshire
[29:40.280 --> 29:42.840]  would do for him the Romney people
[29:42.840 --> 29:46.080]  feel what it did for George W. Bush in 2000
[29:46.080 --> 29:49.320]  when he sewed up the Republican nomination, essentially.
[29:49.320 --> 29:58.760]  And in 2004, when John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire,
[29:58.760 --> 30:02.280]  of course, in 2000, he lost to John McCain in New Hampshire.
[30:02.280 --> 30:05.760]  But that one-two punch is really formidable.
[30:05.760 --> 30:07.800]  All right, now about Ron Paul.
[30:07.800 --> 30:11.120]  David, as Mark just said, Ron Paul's up there.
[30:11.120 --> 30:13.880]  And what is that going to mean?
[30:13.880 --> 30:15.760]  If you don't say he wins, that's one thing.
[30:15.760 --> 30:18.080]  But even if he comes in a close second,
[30:18.080 --> 30:21.160]  what's it going to mean for the race, generally, for Ron Paul
[30:21.160 --> 30:23.760]  to do that well in Iowa?
[30:23.760 --> 30:25.480]  Well, the thing the Romney people like
[30:25.480 --> 30:26.960]  is there are two main rivals right now,
[30:26.960 --> 30:28.840]  Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.
[30:28.840 --> 30:31.200]  People think Gingrich's campaign might have legs,
[30:31.200 --> 30:33.000]  or Rick Perry's campaign might have legs.
[30:33.000 --> 30:35.040]  But I don't think they're too worried about Santorum
[30:35.040 --> 30:36.520]  and Paul having legs.
[30:36.520 --> 30:41.320]  So having rivals like that is good for the Romney camp.
[30:41.320 --> 30:43.360]  The Paul people are young.
[30:43.360 --> 30:44.280]  They're organized.
[30:44.280 --> 30:45.480]  They're very diverse.
[30:45.480 --> 30:48.000]  There are some veterans, some older people,
[30:48.000 --> 30:50.320]  a lot of students, a lot of goldbugs,
[30:50.320 --> 30:51.960]  some people who want drug legalization.
[30:51.960 --> 30:53.720]  It's about as diverse a group of people
[30:53.720 --> 30:55.360]  as you can possibly imagine.
[30:55.360 --> 30:58.240]  And there's a supposition that Paul, like Santorum,
[30:58.240 --> 31:00.960]  probably is underpolling, that there are more people
[31:00.960 --> 31:03.800]  and they're more mobilized, both in the libertarian camp
[31:03.800 --> 31:05.520]  and the social conservative camp.
[31:05.520 --> 31:07.400]  And so historically, people in those camps
[31:07.400 --> 31:09.840]  have done a little better than the final polls.
[31:09.840 --> 31:12.440]  So there's upside for him.
[31:12.440 --> 31:15.640]  And it's funny, the way he campaigns, he campaigns
[31:15.640 --> 31:17.440]  like the audience isn't there.
[31:17.440 --> 31:20.080]  He gives his talks, whether they're applauding, not
[31:20.080 --> 31:21.000]  listening, not.
[31:21.000 --> 31:22.240]  He's going to tell you what he thinks.
[31:22.240 --> 31:26.360]  So there's no real superstar.
[31:26.360 --> 31:29.120]  There's no stump superstar who really can galvanize
[31:29.120 --> 31:31.480]  a crowd among this group the way Huckabee did,
[31:31.480 --> 31:33.960]  the way John Edwards did, the way Barack Obama did.
[31:33.960 --> 31:36.920]  As a series of stump performers, I would say
[31:36.920 --> 31:38.400]  it's a below average year.
[31:38.400 --> 31:41.760]  And Paul, doing very well, is certainly not raising that average.
[31:41.760 --> 31:46.360]  How do you account for Santorum's surge?
[31:46.360 --> 31:48.320]  Just a quick thing on that, Paul.
[31:48.320 --> 31:51.160]  The word in 2000, name and authenticity,
[31:51.160 --> 31:53.320]  Ron Paul exudes authenticity.
[31:53.320 --> 31:55.160]  He says the same thing, wherever he goes.
[31:55.160 --> 31:56.800]  Others trim, they pander.
[31:56.800 --> 31:58.000]  They may not like it, but he says the same thing.
[31:58.000 --> 31:59.280]  They play to the crowd.
[31:59.280 --> 32:02.040]  What do you want to hear?
[32:02.040 --> 32:03.440]  Ron Paul is just the opposite.
[32:03.440 --> 32:08.400]  And he has, unlike Santorum and even Gingrich at this point,
[32:08.400 --> 32:10.400]  he has money and the ability to raise money
[32:10.400 --> 32:12.920]  in small contributions from a lot of different people.
[32:12.920 --> 32:14.840]  But Santorum's been saying the same thing, too.
[32:14.840 --> 32:16.200]  Santorum has been.
[32:16.200 --> 32:18.000]  So Santorum and his own way on me.
[32:18.000 --> 32:19.600]  That's right, he has sounded the themes
[32:19.600 --> 32:23.600]  that have been the cradle of modern conservatism.
[32:23.600 --> 32:28.120]  Strong, muscular, foreign policy, social, religious
[32:28.120 --> 32:32.520]  conservatives, and economic, fiscal conservatism.
[32:32.520 --> 32:38.480]  And I think that is a sense in Iowa that he's worked for it.
[32:38.480 --> 32:40.640]  He's visited the 99 counties.
[32:40.640 --> 32:42.760]  He's done it the retail way.
[32:42.760 --> 32:47.960]  He's listened to the hairdressers and the auto mechanics.
[32:47.960 --> 32:51.600]  And I think that there is a connection point,
[32:51.600 --> 32:54.000]  and especially now with the religious and social
[32:54.000 --> 32:55.920]  conservatives, I think he's caught on.
[32:55.920 --> 32:57.720]  And that the others have fallen on.
[32:57.720 --> 32:59.920]  The other said, hey, here's Santorum.
[32:59.920 --> 33:01.360]  Well, he never had the moment in the sun.
[33:01.360 --> 33:03.520]  I mean, the others were all Icarus.
[33:03.520 --> 33:07.160]  I mean, they got close to the sun, and then boom, boom, boom.
[33:07.160 --> 33:10.160]  How do you read Santorum, David?
[33:10.160 --> 33:12.480]  Yeah, to me, this is less about the candidates
[33:12.480 --> 33:14.160]  and their personalities, and more about just
[33:14.160 --> 33:16.800]  raw demographics and philosophy.
[33:16.800 --> 33:19.800]  Year after year, there are a lot of social conservatives
[33:19.800 --> 33:20.360]  in this state.
[33:20.360 --> 33:22.640]  And this goes back to the time many elections ago,
[33:22.640 --> 33:25.560]  and Pat Robertson did well here, let alone Mike Huckabee.
[33:25.560 --> 33:27.640]  And those social conservatives have always been here,
[33:27.640 --> 33:30.040]  and they're going to vote for a social conservative candidate
[33:30.040 --> 33:31.880]  and Santorums, you know, homeschooler.
[33:31.880 --> 33:33.560]  He homeschools his kids.
[33:33.560 --> 33:37.040]  He's genuinely of the community, even though he is Catholic.
[33:37.040 --> 33:38.600]  And so they're going to go for that guy.
[33:38.600 --> 33:41.240]  There are genuinely a lot of libertarians
[33:41.240 --> 33:42.600]  among the voters here, and they're
[33:42.600 --> 33:43.600]  going to go for Ron Paul.
[33:43.600 --> 33:45.520]  And whether they perform well or not,
[33:45.520 --> 33:47.320]  it's almost beside the point at this point.
[33:47.320 --> 33:49.760]  Those people are going to express their point of view.
[33:49.760 --> 33:52.080]  And so there are just a lot of those voters in this state.
[33:52.080 --> 33:54.120]  Let's go back to Gingrich for a moment, David.
[33:54.120 --> 33:56.200]  You said you saw him cry today.
[33:56.200 --> 34:00.720]  He, his polls show that he has really dropped.
[34:00.720 --> 34:01.520]  And why?
[34:01.520 --> 34:06.200]  And does he have a chance of coming out of Iowa in any way
[34:06.200 --> 34:07.240]  that could give him legs?
[34:07.240 --> 34:10.120]  You said there's a possibility of legs for Gingrich.
[34:10.120 --> 34:11.800]  Why?
[34:11.800 --> 34:13.160]  I asked you three questions in one.
[34:13.160 --> 34:15.720]  I'm sorry about that.
[34:15.720 --> 34:18.720]  Well, he's a candidate who has a long reputation,
[34:18.720 --> 34:19.520]  and he's pretty good.
[34:19.520 --> 34:21.120]  You know, I saw him today on the stump,
[34:21.120 --> 34:23.200]  and he gives good answers that get applause going.
[34:23.200 --> 34:26.240]  He's just a polished political performer.
[34:26.240 --> 34:28.120]  The reason he's falling primarily
[34:28.120 --> 34:31.600]  is that there's a lot of ads on TV these days in Iowa,
[34:31.600 --> 34:34.520]  and 47% of them are being run against Newt Gingrich.
[34:34.520 --> 34:36.520]  There's just a ton of negative ads.
[34:36.520 --> 34:40.240]  And he's got a lot that he freely admits he's vulnerable for.
[34:40.240 --> 34:42.280]  And so people are learning about the divorces.
[34:42.280 --> 34:44.960]  They're learning about the Freddie Mac lobbying,
[34:44.960 --> 34:46.520]  and they're just not happy.
[34:46.520 --> 34:50.480]  It's funny to watch him happen to run into him in a hotel lobby
[34:50.480 --> 34:52.680]  last night, and he was ebulant and very self-aware,
[34:52.680 --> 34:54.080]  a very different sort of Newt Gingrich,
[34:54.080 --> 34:56.440]  a little more mature than I'd seen him,
[34:56.440 --> 34:58.440]  very aware of his problems and his possibilities.
[34:58.440 --> 35:01.560]  And then today, the emotional moment,
[35:01.560 --> 35:03.720]  I wouldn't bet on him rebounding,
[35:03.720 --> 35:07.120]  but he is someone who still can debate extremely well.
[35:07.120 --> 35:09.400]  And that argument that he uses time and time again,
[35:09.400 --> 35:11.600]  who do you want to see debating Barack Obama?
[35:11.600 --> 35:12.840]  That is one that resonates.
[35:12.840 --> 35:14.200]  So I wouldn't totally count him out,
[35:14.200 --> 35:15.920]  but I certainly wouldn't bet money on him.
[35:15.920 --> 35:18.000]  You wouldn't either, would you?
[35:18.000 --> 35:21.840]  I think I'm probably less bullish on Newt Gingrich's ability
[35:21.840 --> 35:23.920]  to bounce back than David.
[35:23.920 --> 35:27.640]  In 1996, after he lost, Bob Dole said,
[35:27.640 --> 35:30.880]  I was told that people did not like negative ads.
[35:30.880 --> 35:32.120]  I didn't run any.
[35:32.120 --> 35:33.640]  I lost.
[35:33.640 --> 35:35.520]  And I think we're seeing that with Newt Gingrich.
[35:35.520 --> 35:40.520]  I mean, David mentioned that 45, 47% of all the ads bought
[35:42.160 --> 35:46.400]  in Iowa in 2011 have been against Newt Gingrich.
[35:46.400 --> 35:51.400]  I mean, that leaves 55% for anybody else positive.
[35:51.480 --> 35:54.080]  Perhaps the most effective was Ron Pauls,
[35:54.080 --> 35:56.880]  which was the serial hypocrisy ad.
[35:56.880 --> 35:58.080]  So I think it's tough.
[35:58.080 --> 36:01.360]  There's an awful lot that has got back to him.
[36:01.360 --> 36:03.280]  I think probably the Freddie Mac
[36:03.280 --> 36:07.400]  has really hurt him with conservatives in general
[36:07.400 --> 36:09.560]  and the historian explanation.
[36:09.560 --> 36:12.480]  Secondly, was really his appearing with Nancy Pelosi
[36:12.480 --> 36:15.840]  in that public service announcement on climate change.
[36:15.840 --> 36:16.680]  He never was going to put that behind him.
[36:16.680 --> 36:18.280]  No, he really hasn't.
[36:18.280 --> 36:21.680]  On Iowa, generally, both of you beginning with you, David,
[36:22.960 --> 36:26.480]  should Iowa matter as much as it appears to at this point?
[36:26.480 --> 36:28.680]  I mean, as we're talking about it,
[36:28.680 --> 36:30.440]  the whole world is talking about it right now.
[36:30.440 --> 36:31.760]  Should they be?
[36:31.760 --> 36:35.320]  Is this the way to choose candidates
[36:35.320 --> 36:37.040]  for president of the United States
[36:37.040 --> 36:38.640]  by going starting with Iowa?
[36:39.840 --> 36:40.800]  Yeah, I still think so.
[36:40.800 --> 36:43.120]  I still, this is still my favorite place
[36:43.120 --> 36:44.520]  to cover a political race.
[36:44.520 --> 36:45.640]  It's not the way it used to be.
[36:45.640 --> 36:48.160]  It's not just a George H.W. Bush driving around
[36:48.160 --> 36:51.600]  in a station wagon with one aid and maybe a press person.
[36:51.600 --> 36:54.000]  Now there's clumps of people, there's big buses,
[36:54.000 --> 36:56.480]  but it's still, it's more retail.
[36:56.480 --> 36:58.720]  The people are really run through their paces.
[36:58.720 --> 37:02.080]  Rick Perry tried, couldn't make it here.
[37:02.080 --> 37:03.960]  Michelle Bachman, we saw what happened to her
[37:03.960 --> 37:05.200]  among voters here.
[37:05.200 --> 37:07.560]  It is, I think it's still a good testing ground.
[37:07.560 --> 37:09.960]  Is it the most representative state in the country?
[37:09.960 --> 37:12.280]  Maybe not, but I still think it's a practiced,
[37:12.280 --> 37:14.520]  knowledgeable electorate who are very good
[37:14.520 --> 37:17.080]  at putting candidates through the ordeal of running.
[37:17.080 --> 37:18.600]  And I do think it's a legitimate way
[37:18.600 --> 37:21.440]  to screen out candidates and give a couple a chance
[37:21.440 --> 37:22.280]  to move on.
[37:22.280 --> 37:23.280]  You agree with that, don't you, Bob?
[37:23.280 --> 37:24.760]  I do, Jim.
[37:24.760 --> 37:26.160]  I mean, Iowa is unrepresented,
[37:26.160 --> 37:30.080]  but has the fourth highest literacy rate of the 50 states.
[37:30.080 --> 37:32.080]  It has the third lowest divorce rate.
[37:32.080 --> 37:34.840]  It has the sixth highest high school graduation rate,
[37:34.840 --> 37:38.400]  higher than the coastal smug states of Connecticut,
[37:38.400 --> 37:42.240]  New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts,
[37:42.240 --> 37:47.240]  Oregon, Washington, and the people take it quite seriously.
[37:47.440 --> 37:49.800]  And I always feel better after I've been in Iowa
[37:49.800 --> 37:52.360]  and I will feel better after Tuesday night again.
[37:52.360 --> 37:56.880]  Okay, Mark, David, thank you both very much.
[37:56.880 --> 38:01.880]  Now, two stories about the changing portrait of America.
[38:06.600 --> 38:09.480]  First, a different kind of life in the suburbs.
[38:09.480 --> 38:13.000]  Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people living
[38:13.000 --> 38:15.680]  below the poverty line in U.S. suburbs increased
[38:15.680 --> 38:18.840]  by more than 50%, a trend that accelerated
[38:18.840 --> 38:20.120]  during the recession.
[38:20.120 --> 38:23.440]  It's happening in places that have long been middle class,
[38:23.440 --> 38:25.600]  as well as in richer neighborhoods.
[38:25.600 --> 38:29.400]  Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago has our story.
[38:31.600 --> 38:34.880]  DuPage County, Illinois is one of the wealthiest counties
[38:34.880 --> 38:36.360]  in the country.
[38:36.360 --> 38:39.200]  Comfortable homes sit on tree-lined streets
[38:39.200 --> 38:43.160]  in the suburb of Wheaton, eight miles west of Chicago.
[38:43.160 --> 38:47.360]  Upscale restaurants and shops line the historic downtown.
[38:47.360 --> 38:50.480]  But there is another side to DuPage County,
[38:50.480 --> 38:54.600]  one that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.
[38:54.600 --> 38:58.160]  It includes packed food pantries and crowds
[38:58.160 --> 39:00.520]  at the county welfare office.
[39:00.520 --> 39:04.400]  Candace King coordinates human services in DuPage County
[39:04.400 --> 39:07.920]  and she has watched poverty grow.
[39:07.920 --> 39:12.680]  It's exploded in the 16 years that I've been in my job.
[39:12.680 --> 39:16.560]  It has gone from something that was rarely encountered
[39:16.560 --> 39:20.600]  in this community and certainly no one thought it was here
[39:20.600 --> 39:23.680]  to an issue that we encounter every day.
[39:23.680 --> 39:26.840]  Over the last 20 years, poverty in DuPage County
[39:26.840 --> 39:30.560]  has grown by 185%.
[39:30.560 --> 39:33.880]  Nearly 60,000 people here live in poverty,
[39:33.880 --> 39:37.960]  defined by the federal government as earning $22,350
[39:37.960 --> 39:41.000]  a year for a family of four.
[39:41.000 --> 39:44.280]  And now a Brookings Institute analysis of census data
[39:44.280 --> 39:47.320]  finds that for the first time in the Chicago area,
[39:47.320 --> 39:50.480]  there are more people in poverty in the suburbs
[39:50.480 --> 39:53.440]  than in the city.
[39:53.440 --> 39:57.000]  In this Wheaton housing complex, 11 of the townhomes
[39:57.000 --> 39:59.040]  are in foreclosure.
[39:59.040 --> 40:01.200]  After almost two years of trying,
[40:01.200 --> 40:04.440]  43-year-old Catherine Aravosis was finally
[40:04.440 --> 40:08.520]  able to renegotiate her mortgage and save her home.
[40:08.520 --> 40:13.360]  But she and her two children live far below the poverty line.
[40:13.360 --> 40:16.000]  Aravosis had a middle-class upbringing.
[40:16.000 --> 40:18.120]  Her father was a college professor.
[40:18.120 --> 40:22.400]  And in 2008, she got her second master's degree,
[40:22.400 --> 40:25.240]  this one in elementary education.
[40:25.240 --> 40:28.440]  But because of cuts in state education funding,
[40:28.440 --> 40:32.520]  she hasn't been able to find a full-time teaching job.
[40:32.520 --> 40:37.200]  Last year, she made $11,000 as a substitute teacher,
[40:37.200 --> 40:41.080]  far less than what she needs to support her two children.
[40:41.080 --> 40:45.280]  It has been hard for me, because I
[40:45.280 --> 40:50.200]  want to provide for them in a way my parents provided for me.
[40:50.200 --> 40:54.280]  I never knew what my parents made.
[40:54.280 --> 40:56.240]  I never had to worry about a thing.
[40:59.320 --> 41:06.680]  We just lived a really stable, typical middle-class existence.
[41:06.680 --> 41:10.240]  And for my children, they don't have that sense of security
[41:10.240 --> 41:11.880]  that I had.
[41:11.880 --> 41:14.480]  They know when I'm stressed, and that hurts.
[41:14.480 --> 41:17.080]  You'll get one item out of the bucket behind him?
[41:17.080 --> 41:20.480]  Aravosis is part of the newly poor demographic
[41:20.480 --> 41:25.000]  that accounts for much of the rise in poverty in the suburbs.
[41:25.000 --> 41:28.160]  10 years ago, she and her husband, an architect,
[41:28.160 --> 41:30.720]  were earning a six-figure income and living
[41:30.720 --> 41:33.560]  in a five-bedroom home in Wheaton.
[41:33.560 --> 41:36.080]  They divorced in 2004.
[41:36.080 --> 41:38.240]  Her former husband's architectural commissions
[41:38.240 --> 41:42.400]  dried up in 2008, and he has had trouble making child support
[41:42.400 --> 41:43.880]  payments.
[41:43.880 --> 41:46.920]  Aravosis tried to get Medicaid for her children,
[41:46.920 --> 41:49.360]  but the state threatened to take her former husband's
[41:49.360 --> 41:53.000]  architect license because of lack of child support,
[41:53.000 --> 41:54.960]  and she backed off.
[41:54.960 --> 41:57.040]  It's those days when you get up and you really
[41:57.040 --> 42:01.240]  don't know what you're going to give your kids for dinner.
[42:01.240 --> 42:05.480]  And it can be a full-time job finding out,
[42:05.480 --> 42:09.520]  how am I going to get glasses for prescription as a year old?
[42:09.520 --> 42:11.040]  And where am I going to, you know,
[42:11.040 --> 42:13.600]  how do I go and get her the shot she needs?
[42:13.600 --> 42:17.440]  She's going to sixth grade, not having the health insurance,
[42:17.440 --> 42:22.720]  not having the basic things that people take for granted,
[42:22.720 --> 42:26.960]  being able to get their kid to the doctor.
[42:26.960 --> 42:29.920]  When they come home and say, we need $5 for school,
[42:29.920 --> 42:31.200]  there's always something.
[42:31.200 --> 42:36.360]  And sometimes you have to say, I don't have it.
[42:36.360 --> 42:37.600]  I just don't have it.
[42:37.600 --> 42:39.120]  I'm sorry.
[42:39.120 --> 42:42.400]  Today, dinner comes from the local food pantry.
[42:42.400 --> 42:45.440]  She cooks in her crock pot or microwave,
[42:45.440 --> 42:49.120]  since she can't afford to repair her broken stove.
[42:49.120 --> 42:52.040]  Like many of the suburban poor, Aravosis
[42:52.040 --> 42:55.640]  never thought she would need help buying food.
[42:55.640 --> 42:59.200]  I didn't expect to be using the food pantry, especially
[42:59.200 --> 43:03.960]  not on a regular basis, but, you know, I'm working,
[43:03.960 --> 43:07.880]  and I'm not making enough money to make ends meet.
[43:07.880 --> 43:11.520]  So it's very humbling, but I swallowed my pride,
[43:11.520 --> 43:13.600]  and I went to the People's Resource Center,
[43:13.600 --> 43:15.280]  and I asked for help.
[43:15.280 --> 43:17.760]  OK, I have to have pumpkin, right?
[43:17.760 --> 43:20.880]  Aravosis can fill up a shopping cart once a week
[43:20.880 --> 43:23.400]  at the People's Resource Center.
[43:23.400 --> 43:26.400]  The number of people using this food pantry in Wheaton
[43:26.400 --> 43:30.720]  has gone up by 200% in the last five years.
[43:30.720 --> 43:34.160]  There was a 30% jump in 2008 alone.
[43:34.160 --> 43:36.160]  Make sure all the cart handles are clean.
[43:36.160 --> 43:39.520]  The Resource Center's program director, Melissa Travis,
[43:39.520 --> 43:43.280]  says many of their clients are new to poverty.
[43:43.280 --> 43:45.000]  Oftentimes, the first time they come,
[43:45.000 --> 43:47.240]  they break into tears, because they can't imagine
[43:47.240 --> 43:49.760]  that they would ever need help in a way like this.
[43:49.760 --> 43:51.720]  They've been people that have paid taxes.
[43:51.720 --> 43:53.520]  They're people that have volunteered and helped
[43:53.520 --> 43:55.280]  in places like this in the past.
[43:55.280 --> 43:58.400]  And now, suddenly, they have to go and seek out that assistance.
[43:58.400 --> 44:01.320]  So we give a lot of hugs.
[44:01.320 --> 44:03.520]  Mary Kay Hopp could have used a hug the day
[44:03.520 --> 44:05.600]  she came to the food pantry.
[44:05.600 --> 44:08.240]  A registered nurse, Hopp has been out of work
[44:08.240 --> 44:10.000]  for several years.
[44:10.000 --> 44:12.200]  She grew up in Wheaton and enjoyed
[44:12.200 --> 44:14.680]  a far different lifestyle.
[44:14.680 --> 44:16.280]  My dad had a good job.
[44:16.280 --> 44:19.960]  We had the big house and the cars and all those other things,
[44:19.960 --> 44:21.480]  new wardrobe for school.
[44:21.480 --> 44:23.520]  When that time of the year came around,
[44:23.520 --> 44:25.680]  I think that I'm one of the people
[44:25.680 --> 44:28.400]  who didn't have to go without much.
[44:28.400 --> 44:33.640]  And yeah, it's a whole flip side of that.
[44:33.640 --> 44:37.080]  Three months of unemployment brought Mariano Menendez
[44:37.080 --> 44:40.720]  and his family to the food pantry for the first time.
[44:40.720 --> 44:42.000]  Did you think you'd ever wind up
[44:42.000 --> 44:43.600]  coming to a food pantry for all?
[44:43.600 --> 44:44.280]  No, of course not.
[44:44.280 --> 44:45.720]  Never, never.
[44:45.720 --> 44:46.720]  I've had good jobs.
[44:46.720 --> 44:50.840]  I've made good income.
[44:50.840 --> 44:54.080]  I've never in my wildest dreams, so yeah.
[44:54.080 --> 44:56.120]  I'm definitely very grateful for this.
[44:56.120 --> 45:00.440]  It's an amazing, amazing service that they offer here.
[45:00.440 --> 45:03.840]  Third dramatic increase in poverty in suburban DuPage
[45:03.840 --> 45:07.040]  County mirrors the increase in poverty in suburban areas
[45:07.040 --> 45:08.800]  across the country.
[45:08.800 --> 45:10.880]  That leaves human service agencies
[45:10.880 --> 45:14.320]  struggling to meet the needs in their communities.
[45:14.320 --> 45:17.000]  Yet federal, state, and local funding
[45:17.000 --> 45:21.040]  still goes disproportionately to urban areas.
[45:21.040 --> 45:23.080]  That lack of federal and state resources
[45:23.080 --> 45:26.680]  to fight suburban poverty leaves existing agencies
[45:26.680 --> 45:28.080]  overwhelmed.
[45:28.080 --> 45:31.840]  All of the growth in poverty in the state of Illinois
[45:31.840 --> 45:34.080]  has been in the suburban area.
[45:34.080 --> 45:39.000]  My organization did an analysis of federal funding
[45:39.000 --> 45:43.840]  and some state funding and private philanthropic funding
[45:43.840 --> 45:47.240]  and found that the city of Chicago is getting up
[45:47.240 --> 45:51.160]  to four and five times more per poor person
[45:51.160 --> 45:52.760]  than DuPage County is.
[45:52.760 --> 45:55.240]  That is not news to Melissa Travis
[45:55.240 --> 45:56.960]  at the People's Resource Center.
[45:56.960 --> 45:59.160]  We are stretched about six weeks ago.
[45:59.160 --> 46:01.600]  The food pantry was as empty as I've ever seen it
[46:01.600 --> 46:03.320]  in six and a half years.
[46:03.320 --> 46:06.560]  We were trying to get through to our next delivery
[46:06.560 --> 46:09.160]  and just hoping that we had enough food to give everybody
[46:09.160 --> 46:10.400]  what they needed.
[46:10.400 --> 46:13.000]  It's been a devastating year in that regard.
[46:13.000 --> 46:15.120]  Unlike many of the newly poor, who
[46:15.120 --> 46:18.240]  have a hard time finding the resources that are available,
[46:18.240 --> 46:20.520]  Catherine Aravosis has taken advantage
[46:20.520 --> 46:23.720]  of all the programs at the People's Resource Center.
[46:23.720 --> 46:26.520]  She has gotten clothes for herself and her kids
[46:26.520 --> 46:28.320]  and used the job counselors in her effort
[46:28.320 --> 46:30.920]  to find a full-time teaching job.
[46:30.920 --> 46:34.080]  But having to accept help has changed the way
[46:34.080 --> 46:35.760]  she thinks of herself.
[46:35.760 --> 46:37.480]  I always thought of myself as middle class.
[46:37.480 --> 46:39.520]  I had a middle class upbringing.
[46:39.520 --> 46:44.200]  I had middle class expectations, but the reality
[46:44.200 --> 46:49.640]  is that I'm not living a middle class lifestyle anymore.
[46:49.640 --> 46:51.440]  So no, I don't think so.
[46:51.440 --> 46:55.760]  I think I've fallen out of the middle class.
[46:55.760 --> 46:58.560]  Like many in her situation, she doesn't see much hope
[46:58.560 --> 47:00.520]  of things improving.
[47:00.520 --> 47:03.120]  And while she wants to stay in Wheaton,
[47:03.120 --> 47:07.240]  life in suburbia is far different than she ever imagined
[47:07.240 --> 47:10.040]  it would be.
[47:10.040 --> 47:19.160]  And finally tonight, our second story
[47:19.160 --> 47:22.000]  on the shifting trends in American life.
[47:22.000 --> 47:25.720]  This one's about the changing demographics of marriage.
[47:25.720 --> 47:28.680]  Ray Suarez has our conversation.
[47:28.680 --> 47:31.960]  For decades, the fact that a sizable majority of Americans
[47:31.960 --> 47:35.360]  were married shaped our politics, where we lived,
[47:35.360 --> 47:38.160]  where we worked, and what we thought when we heard the word
[47:38.160 --> 47:39.240]  family.
[47:39.240 --> 47:40.880]  Recently, the Pew Research Center
[47:40.880 --> 47:45.080]  took a look at all of us over 18 and found just 51%
[47:45.080 --> 47:49.320]  are married, down from more than 70% in 1960.
[47:49.320 --> 47:51.560]  Stephanie Coons has been chronicling the changes
[47:51.560 --> 47:53.560]  in American marriage for a long time.
[47:53.560 --> 47:55.480]  She teaches history and family studies
[47:55.480 --> 47:57.800]  at Evergreen State College in Washington
[47:57.800 --> 47:59.800]  and is director of research at the Council
[47:59.800 --> 48:01.680]  on Contemporary Families.
[48:01.680 --> 48:02.920]  Professor Coons, welcome.
[48:02.920 --> 48:05.960]  We moved in 50 years from almost three quarters
[48:05.960 --> 48:09.440]  of married adults to barely half.
[48:09.440 --> 48:09.960]  What happened?
[48:09.960 --> 48:12.360]  What's pushing those numbers?
[48:12.360 --> 48:14.760]  Well, one of the things that you have to bear in mind
[48:14.760 --> 48:20.120]  is that 1960 was probably the most atypical year in 150 years.
[48:20.120 --> 48:22.520]  The age of marriage was at an all-time low.
[48:22.520 --> 48:24.600]  Half of all women were married before they
[48:24.600 --> 48:26.120]  got out of their teens.
[48:26.120 --> 48:28.840]  And the rate of marriage was at an all-time high.
[48:28.840 --> 48:31.760]  So what's happened since then, primarily what's driving this,
[48:31.760 --> 48:33.680]  is the rise in the age of marriage.
[48:33.680 --> 48:38.720]  It's now up to 26 for women and 28 for men.
[48:38.720 --> 48:40.000]  And that's actually a good thing,
[48:40.000 --> 48:42.880]  because the longer a woman delays marriage,
[48:42.880 --> 48:46.600]  right up until her early 30s, the lower her chances of divorce.
[48:46.600 --> 48:49.520]  But it does totally change the social weight
[48:49.520 --> 48:52.200]  of married households in our economy, our society,
[48:52.200 --> 48:53.480]  our politics.
[48:53.480 --> 48:57.360]  But not only has the age at first marriage risen, which,
[48:57.360 --> 48:58.600]  of course, that's just math.
[48:58.600 --> 49:01.440]  It makes a smaller number of adults married.
[49:01.440 --> 49:04.000]  But the number of people who have ever been married
[49:04.000 --> 49:05.360]  has also declined.
[49:05.360 --> 49:08.920]  Has marriage moved from being sort of culturally mandatory
[49:08.920 --> 49:11.360]  to more optional?
[49:11.360 --> 49:14.120]  Well, it's definitely moved to being more optional.
[49:14.120 --> 49:17.200]  That does not mean, though, that it's not just as valued,
[49:17.200 --> 49:19.760]  in fact, even more valued than it used to be.
[49:19.760 --> 49:21.840]  And it doesn't mean that the majority of Americans
[49:21.840 --> 49:23.520]  will not marry.
[49:23.520 --> 49:26.280]  I think that probably we're going into a situation
[49:26.280 --> 49:30.080]  where a slightly larger number of people will never marry
[49:30.080 --> 49:31.040]  than in the past.
[49:31.040 --> 49:35.800]  Maybe 15%, as opposed to 10% norm and 5%
[49:35.800 --> 49:37.920]  in the atypical 1950s.
[49:37.920 --> 49:40.800]  And of course, we also have some people who will live alone
[49:40.800 --> 49:42.760]  after divorcing.
[49:42.760 --> 49:45.600]  But on the other hand, people are marrying for the first time
[49:45.600 --> 49:48.240]  in their 40s, 50s, and 60s at younger,
[49:48.240 --> 49:50.600]  at older ages than ever before.
[49:50.600 --> 49:53.400]  So for me, the main thing that I think we're facing here
[49:53.400 --> 49:56.840]  is that you can no longer assume that married couple,
[49:56.840 --> 50:00.760]  households, are going to be the main places where people make
[50:00.760 --> 50:03.360]  the major life decisions, whether that's
[50:03.360 --> 50:06.160]  entering into becoming sexually active,
[50:06.160 --> 50:09.720]  buying a house, entering long-term obligations,
[50:09.720 --> 50:11.960]  living with somebody that is a romantic partner,
[50:11.960 --> 50:13.720]  even having a child out of marriage.
[50:13.720 --> 50:16.720]  So we can no longer assume that married couple, households
[50:16.720 --> 50:19.640]  are the only place where people incur obligations,
[50:19.640 --> 50:23.040]  make commitments, and need help in meeting their obligations.
[50:23.040 --> 50:25.880]  Well, you've talked about these big life moments.
[50:25.880 --> 50:28.240]  But have they responded to the fact
[50:28.240 --> 50:31.400]  that marriage has changed in this way over the last 50 years?
[50:31.400 --> 50:33.800]  Our tax laws, the way we build houses,
[50:33.800 --> 50:36.600]  the way we award property and courts,
[50:36.600 --> 50:40.360]  all kinds of things are still built around marriage.
[50:40.360 --> 50:41.880]  Absolutely, absolutely.
[50:41.880 --> 50:44.560]  Just look at work-family policies that just assume
[50:44.560 --> 50:45.960]  that it's only married couples who
[50:45.960 --> 50:50.040]  are going to have children, or just ignore the fact
[50:50.040 --> 50:53.880]  that singles also have responsibility for aging parents.
[50:53.880 --> 50:56.760]  There are so many ways in which we are still
[50:56.760 --> 51:01.480]  acting as though American families were like 1950s sitcoms
[51:01.480 --> 51:03.720]  instead of the tremendous diversity.
[51:03.720 --> 51:05.840]  Most people will marry in America,
[51:05.840 --> 51:08.840]  but most people will spend substantial portions
[51:08.840 --> 51:10.800]  of their adult life outside marriage.
[51:10.800 --> 51:13.040]  It's a more fluid situation than it used to be.
[51:13.040 --> 51:13.840]  They'll move through.
[51:13.840 --> 51:15.600]  They may cohabit for a while.
[51:15.600 --> 51:16.840]  They may get married.
[51:16.840 --> 51:18.640]  They may get divorced.
[51:18.640 --> 51:21.160]  So these are the sorts of things that our social policy
[51:21.160 --> 51:24.560]  and even our emotional expectations of family life
[51:24.560 --> 51:26.960]  have to catch up with these changing realities.
[51:26.960 --> 51:28.680]  Along with the long-term trends,
[51:28.680 --> 51:30.480]  there are some short-term ones too.
[51:30.480 --> 51:33.360]  The number of newlyweds is way down.
[51:33.360 --> 51:37.360]  Is that going to push that 50% threshold down
[51:37.360 --> 51:42.120]  so that married people are a minority of American adults?
[51:42.120 --> 51:42.680]  It may.
[51:42.680 --> 51:43.080]  It may.
[51:43.080 --> 51:45.720]  It depends how long this recession and the aftermath
[51:45.720 --> 51:47.120]  of the recession lasts.
[51:47.120 --> 51:49.720]  This is a long-term trend that decline
[51:49.720 --> 51:52.840]  in the proportion of married couples in the population.
[51:52.840 --> 51:55.160]  But it's been definitely, I think, exacerbated
[51:55.160 --> 51:56.280]  by the recession.
[51:56.280 --> 51:59.200]  But on the other hand, we may see some bounce back after that
[51:59.200 --> 52:01.640]  as we have in previous recessions and depressions
[52:01.640 --> 52:03.080]  when the marriage rate fell.
[52:03.080 --> 52:09.400]  How is who gets married shaped by income, education,
[52:09.400 --> 52:11.800]  factors like that?
[52:11.800 --> 52:13.480]  Well, one of the things we're seeing
[52:13.480 --> 52:17.480]  is a tremendous class divide in the access
[52:17.480 --> 52:20.600]  to stable, satisfying relationships,
[52:20.600 --> 52:22.640]  whether married or cohabiting.
[52:22.640 --> 52:25.640]  And the marriages of college-educated couples
[52:25.640 --> 52:27.480]  have been getting more and more stable.
[52:27.480 --> 52:29.440]  The divorce rates have been falling.
[52:29.440 --> 52:32.520]  But that's not so for high school dropouts
[52:32.520 --> 52:36.360]  and even, increasingly, for high school-educated couples.
[52:36.360 --> 52:39.160]  It seems that one of the issues going on here
[52:39.160 --> 52:42.320]  is that we expect more of marriage than ever before,
[52:42.320 --> 52:46.400]  both as an economic partnership and as an emotional partnership.
[52:46.400 --> 52:53.320]  And as it becomes possible, or less possible, to count on a man
[52:53.320 --> 52:57.040]  having a steady job, the real wages of high school graduates
[52:57.040 --> 53:00.840]  today are $4 an hour lower in constant dollars
[53:00.840 --> 53:02.560]  than they were back in 1970.
[53:02.560 --> 53:05.320]  They're much more likely to experience job insecurity,
[53:05.320 --> 53:07.280]  much less likely to have pensions.
[53:07.280 --> 53:10.960]  So a low-income woman making a decision about marrying
[53:10.960 --> 53:14.320]  such a man has to figure out, well, what are the benefits
[53:14.320 --> 53:16.400]  of this as compared to the possibility
[53:16.400 --> 53:18.240]  that we might divorce in the future
[53:18.240 --> 53:20.160]  or as compared to what would happen
[53:20.160 --> 53:23.520]  if I invested in my own education and earnings power.
[53:23.520 --> 53:25.800]  And so I do think we're seeing a class divide that's
[53:25.800 --> 53:27.080]  quite troublesome.
[53:27.080 --> 53:30.480]  I think that it partly reflects growing economic inequality
[53:30.480 --> 53:33.880]  in our society, but, of course, it exacerbates it as well.
[53:33.880 --> 53:37.120]  Stephanie Coons, thanks for joining us.
[53:37.120 --> 53:37.840]  My pleasure, Ray.
[53:37.840 --> 53:39.680]  Thank you.
[53:39.680 --> 53:48.040]  And again, the major developments of the day.
[53:48.040 --> 53:49.560]  Republican presidential candidate
[53:49.560 --> 53:51.960]  spent another long day hunting for votes going
[53:51.960 --> 53:54.840]  into the final weekend before the Iowa caucuses.
[53:54.840 --> 53:58.720]  Another poll showed Mitt Romney and Ron Paul atop the field.
[53:58.720 --> 54:02.360]  And an outpouring of protesters filled cities across Syria
[54:02.360 --> 54:04.720]  and government troops opened fire again.
[54:04.720 --> 54:08.240]  The opposition said at least 22 people were killed.
[54:08.240 --> 54:11.200]  And to Hari Srinivasan for what's on the news hour online.
[54:11.200 --> 54:12.160]  Hari?
[54:12.160 --> 54:14.120]  There's much more on the coming Iowa caucuses,
[54:14.120 --> 54:17.120]  including Gwen Eiffel's take on why the early contest matter
[54:17.120 --> 54:19.840]  and what some Republican voters want from the candidates.
[54:19.840 --> 54:22.920]  And Patchwork Nation's look at some GOP hopefuls betting
[54:22.920 --> 54:25.960]  big on sparsely populated counties in Iowa,
[54:25.960 --> 54:28.400]  plus on the rundown view a slideshow of some of the biggest
[54:28.400 --> 54:31.560]  news stories of 2011 in the US and around the world.
[54:31.560 --> 54:34.360]  All that and more is on our website, newshour.pbs.org.
[54:34.360 --> 54:35.280]  Jeff?
[54:35.280 --> 54:36.920]  And that's the news hour for tonight.
[54:36.920 --> 54:39.360]  On Monday, we'll look at the fallout in Egypt
[54:39.360 --> 54:42.680]  after the military-rated U.S.-backed organizations.
[54:42.680 --> 54:44.120]  I'm Jeffrey Brown.
[54:44.120 --> 54:46.200]  And I'm Jim Lara, Washington Week,
[54:46.200 --> 54:49.800]  and we'll be seeing you later this evening on most PBS stations.
[54:49.800 --> 54:52.760]  We'll see you online and again here Monday evening.
[54:52.760 --> 54:55.280]  Have a nice New Year's holiday weekend.
[54:55.280 --> 54:56.720]  Thank you and good night.
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