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[00:16.400 --> 00:23.920]  Another poll in Iowa shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul leading the Republican field. Good evening
[00:23.920 --> 00:31.720]  I'm Jim Lara and I'm Jeffrey Brown on the news hour tonight from Des Moines Judy Woodruff has the latest on the GOP race
[00:32.760 --> 00:38.400]  With just three days left until the presidential caucuses more than a third of Iowa
[00:38.640 --> 00:43.060]  Republicans say they still don't know whom they'll vote for so candidates and their
[00:43.400 --> 00:47.000]  Organizations are working overtime to get their supporters out
[00:47.000 --> 00:54.240]  Judy talked with five of those undecided Iowans about what will determine their choices on Tuesday night
[00:54.440 --> 00:59.020]  Plus mark shields here and David Brooks in Iowa analyzed the week's news
[00:59.480 --> 01:01.480]  then Elizabeth bracket of
[01:01.760 --> 01:03.360]  WTTW Chicago
[01:03.360 --> 01:10.720]  Reports on the surprising rise of poverty in the suburban neighborhoods of one of the nation's wealthiest counties
[01:10.720 --> 01:17.000]  It's exploded. It has gone from something that was rarely encountered in this community
[01:17.320 --> 01:24.440]  To an issue that we encounter every day and race wires looks at marriage trends in America as fewer couples
[01:24.440 --> 01:27.480]  Tie the knot and those who do are older than ever
[01:28.400 --> 01:30.880]  That's all ahead on tonight's news hour
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[02:41.340 --> 02:48.260]  Republican presidential candidates spent another long day hunting for votes in Iowa
[02:48.260 --> 02:55.140]  They were heading into the final weekend before the presidential election season officially opens with Tuesday night's caucuses
[02:56.820 --> 03:04.340]  The weather turned colder and windy but Mitt Romney warmed to his audience as another new poll this one from NBC
[03:04.340 --> 03:06.500]  Marist showed him pacing the field
[03:06.500 --> 03:11.780]  If you can get out here in this cold and this wind and a little bit of rain coming down
[03:12.020 --> 03:16.700]  Then you can sure get out on Tuesday night and you could sure find a few people to bring with you
[03:16.740 --> 03:23.540]  One key supporter showed up today, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie campaigning with Romney in West Des Moines
[03:23.540 --> 03:25.540]  It really energizes me the young people
[03:26.060 --> 03:30.620]  Texas Congressman Ron Paul was either tied for first or a close second
[03:30.620 --> 03:36.420]  But 41% in the NBC poll said his libertarian leanings make him unacceptable
[03:37.540 --> 03:42.260]  Newt Gingrich had been the Iowa front-runner just a few weeks back but has fallen far behind
[03:42.820 --> 03:47.100]  In Des Moines today remembering his late mother's mental health problems
[03:47.100 --> 03:52.220]  He grew emotional and my whole emphasis on brain science comes in directly from dealing
[03:54.900 --> 03:56.620]  See how you push
[03:56.620 --> 04:02.620]  But for dealing with you know, the real problems of real people in my family
[04:02.620 --> 04:08.420]  And so it's not a theory. It's in fact, you know, my mother this is very personal for me
[04:08.860 --> 04:16.140]  It's not just political. It's not just public the moment recalled Hillary Clinton's emotional moment just before the
[04:16.500 --> 04:24.500]  2008 Democratic primary in New Hampshire. She went on to win there back in Iowa former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
[04:24.500 --> 04:29.340]  Continued pressing to add to his late surge. He's now running third
[04:30.700 --> 04:36.820]  Another former front-runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry was running fourth or fifth depending on the poll
[04:36.820 --> 04:41.780]  I mean the day that President Obama came into office and Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann
[04:41.980 --> 04:45.340]  Lost two top staffers this week was trailing the field
[04:45.980 --> 04:51.100]  She discounted the low turnout at a meet-and-greet event in early, Iowa this afternoon
[04:51.100 --> 04:56.460]  Our effort wasn't to bring crowds out. We were just dropping in as the weekend arrived
[04:56.460 --> 05:04.860]  The race in Iowa remained fluid many likely caucus goers said they were still deciding on which candidate to support come Tuesday
[05:05.420 --> 05:12.060]  Judy Woodruff is in Iowa reporting for us through the voting next Tuesday night. I spoke with her a short time ago in Des Moines
[05:13.140 --> 05:18.640]  So Judy for a long time. It seemed Mitt Romney wasn't going to fight that hard in Iowa, but no more right?
[05:18.640 --> 05:25.640]  Well, that's right Jeff it looks that way with the first thing we need to say is what a large number of undecided voters
[05:25.880 --> 05:29.640]  There still are in Iowa and you'll hear a little bit more about that in a minute when you see the interview
[05:29.640 --> 05:31.640]  I did with some voters last night
[05:31.640 --> 05:36.720]  But having said that you are right Mitt Romney on top in two of the most recent polls
[05:37.280 --> 05:41.920]  Right at around 25% that seems to be so far a ceiling for him
[05:41.920 --> 05:45.240]  That's the same percentage of the vote Mitt Romney had four years ago
[05:45.240 --> 05:52.540]  When he lost because at that point the conservative vote in Iowa was coalescing around one candidate
[05:52.540 --> 05:55.580]  Mike Huckabee this time the conservative vote is
[05:56.060 --> 06:03.140]  Looking around spread among four or five different candidates. That's working to Mitt Romney's advantage and Jeff
[06:03.140 --> 06:09.260]  I should say right hot on his heels or Ron Paul the libertarian attracting a lot of younger voters and
[06:09.580 --> 06:13.940]  And as you also mentioned Rick Santorum stressing his Christian conservative
[06:13.940 --> 06:19.020]  Views and maybe all that work that Rick Santorum has put into Iowa may be paying off
[06:19.020 --> 06:24.820]  Well, tell me about Ron Paul speaking of Ron Paul. You were at an event of his last night. Now, what did you see?
[06:24.940 --> 06:26.940]  Where is the support coming from?
[06:28.020 --> 06:29.740]  It is coming from there
[06:29.740 --> 06:36.340]  It's traditional that a chunk of Iowa the Iowa Republican vote tends to be libertarian
[06:36.340 --> 06:39.460]  And of course that is Ron Paul's philosophy
[06:39.460 --> 06:46.580]  So that it's a lot of it is young people college students you go to a college campus you talk to many of them
[06:46.580 --> 06:50.300]  They're very excited about Ron Paul. His vote is very enthusiastic
[06:50.820 --> 06:53.460]  It's loyal. They are going to turn out
[06:53.460 --> 07:00.460]  The question is how large are they because there's a there's a sizable percentage of Iowa Republicans who say they could never vote
[07:00.780 --> 07:06.100]  For Ron Paul because they don't like his foreign policy, but he is going to get a significant turnout
[07:06.100 --> 07:11.660]  He's got students in the state who've come in from other parts of the country who are working from for him
[07:11.780 --> 07:18.660]  Even though I should say Jeff Ron Paul himself is going home to Texas for the weekend to celebrate New Year's Eve with his family
[07:18.940 --> 07:21.780]  now beyond it getting cold what about
[07:23.340 --> 07:28.740]  Atmospherics if I can use that word, what's your sense there of how worked-up people are?
[07:28.740 --> 07:33.580]  What what are the campaigns going through as they go into the real crunch time?
[07:33.580 --> 07:37.700]  Well, they're all gearing up. We ran in this morning at a hotel
[07:37.700 --> 07:42.780]  We ran into a name that's I think familiar to many of our viewers Joe Alba
[07:42.780 --> 07:50.060]  Who was president George W Bush's the head of FEMA the Federal Emergency Management Administration. He's working for Rick Perry
[07:50.740 --> 07:57.500]  Organizing the state and the way he put it today. He said he said at this stage of the game. You've identified your supporters
[07:57.500 --> 07:58.500]  It's all mechanics
[07:58.500 --> 08:04.420]  It's getting those people out the people who liked you from the beginning the people who are still undecided
[08:04.660 --> 08:08.420]  The Romney campaign working the state very hard. They say they've got
[08:09.140 --> 08:13.780]  They said you've only seen about 10% of what we're doing 90% of it's been underground
[08:13.980 --> 08:21.580]  We're getting people out you ask about enthusiasm everywhere. You go even Democrats will tell you they're excited to see Iowa getting attention
[08:21.580 --> 08:23.340]  They're excited to see the press here
[08:23.340 --> 08:28.540]  Even if they don't like any of these candidates and they don't they don't plan to vote for them in November
[08:28.540 --> 08:33.980]  These caucuses are still a big deal. So we expect a lot of attention on Tuesday night
[08:33.980 --> 08:38.780]  All right, Judy Woodruff is in Des Moines and we'll be there through Tuesday night. Thanks a lot, Judy
[08:39.980 --> 08:45.340]  Thank you still to come on the news hour tonight Iowa voters still making up their minds
[08:45.980 --> 08:47.980]  Shields and Brooks
[08:47.980 --> 08:53.980]  Poverty in the suburbs and the decline in Americans marrying
[08:53.980 --> 08:57.980]  But first the other news of this day. Here's Hari Sreenivasan
[08:57.980 --> 09:01.980]  An outpouring of anti-government protesters filled cities across Syria today
[09:01.980 --> 09:04.980]  It marked a new challenge to President Bashar al-Assad
[09:04.980 --> 09:10.980]  The opposition reported as many as 250,000 people turned out in both Idlib and Hama
[09:10.980 --> 09:14.980]  And there were many thousands more in Homs Douma and Daraa
[09:14.980 --> 09:18.980]  Protesters said troops gunned down at least 22 people
[09:18.980 --> 09:21.980]  We have a report narrated by Andy Davies of Independent Television News
[09:23.980 --> 09:26.980]  Homs in the northwest of Syria this morning
[09:26.980 --> 09:31.980]  Some are now calling this the martyr city given the numbers killed here in recent months
[09:31.980 --> 09:33.980]  In front of the camera reads the message
[09:33.980 --> 09:37.980]  This is the Friday for marching towards the squares of freedom
[09:37.980 --> 09:42.980]  And so they did gathering in their thousands in the city's main square
[09:42.980 --> 09:45.980]  Significantly for the first time in months
[09:52.980 --> 09:57.980]  In towns across Syria the opposition movement rallied its support base following Friday prayers
[09:57.980 --> 10:01.980]  Hundreds of thousands reportedly took to the streets
[10:01.980 --> 10:07.980]  Emboldened perhaps by the recent arrival of yellow-vested Arab League monitors in the country
[10:07.980 --> 10:14.980]  This intended as a statement to those observers regime violence will not quell this uprising
[10:25.980 --> 10:28.980]  This footage was apparently recorded today in Douma
[10:28.980 --> 10:32.980]  It's just six miles from the center of the capital Damascus
[10:32.980 --> 10:35.980]  It's not clear what caused this particular explosion
[10:35.980 --> 10:41.980]  But opposition activists alleged Syrian security forces had thrown nail bombs into the crowd
[10:44.980 --> 10:47.980]  There was violence documented also in the city of Hama
[10:47.980 --> 10:51.980]  Five were shot dead here today alleged one activist
[10:53.980 --> 11:01.980]  A fortnight ago the United Nations estimated that more than 5,000 have been killed by Syrian security forces since the uprising began
[11:01.980 --> 11:06.980]  One influential campaign group says it's now more than 6,000
[11:06.980 --> 11:11.980]  It's a figure disputed by the government and again today by its media
[11:11.980 --> 11:17.980]  This reporter claims he's tracked down a number of people who were supposedly killed by security forces
[11:17.980 --> 11:23.980]  State run TV was broadcasting today live from the center of Damascus and other cities
[11:23.980 --> 11:27.980]  They were showing rallies in support of al-Assad's regime
[11:27.980 --> 11:32.980]  In Pakistan today at least nine people were killed on a car bomb exploded in the city of Quetta
[11:32.980 --> 11:34.980]  Outside the home of a local politician
[11:34.980 --> 11:38.980]  Pakistani television showed video of victims being rushed to a nearby hospital
[11:38.980 --> 11:40.980]  More than 20 people were wounded there
[11:40.980 --> 11:46.980]  Spain has imposed new austerity measures including a temporary tax hike to raise almost $8 billion
[11:46.980 --> 11:49.980]  The two-year increase would affect the wealthy
[11:49.980 --> 11:55.980]  The newly elected center-right government also announced more than $11 billion in spending cuts today
[11:55.980 --> 11:58.980]  All part of efforts to rein in the country's growing debt
[11:58.980 --> 12:03.980]  Wall Street stumbled on the last trading day of the year with nothing to give the market much of a boost
[12:03.980 --> 12:08.980]  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 69 points to close at 12,217
[12:08.980 --> 12:11.980]  The Nasdaq fell 8 points to close at 2,605
[12:11.980 --> 12:17.980]  For the year the Dow gained 5%, 5.5% and the Nasdaq fell nearly 2%
[12:17.980 --> 12:22.980]  The Standard and Poor's 500 finished the year down less than a tenth of a point
[12:22.980 --> 12:25.980]  NASA satellites are set to start orbiting the moon over New Year's weekend
[12:25.980 --> 12:32.980]  The probes were launched in September as part of the GRAIL mission for Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory
[12:32.980 --> 12:34.980]  Each satellite is about the size of a washing machine
[12:34.980 --> 12:38.980]  They're to fly in tandem to map the moon's gravitational field
[12:38.980 --> 12:42.980]  That data could reveal the moon's interior and how it formed
[12:42.980 --> 12:45.980]  Those are some of today's major stories, now back to Jim
[12:45.980 --> 12:48.980]  And we return to Iowa
[12:48.980 --> 12:55.980]  Last evening Judy Woodruff spoke with five still undecided voters, all registered Republicans
[12:55.980 --> 13:01.980]  They were selected with the help of civic and educational organizations in Iowa
[13:01.980 --> 13:05.980]  Thank you all for joining us and to Jim Carley for hosting us in your home
[13:05.980 --> 13:06.980]  You're welcome
[13:06.980 --> 13:09.980]  As you look at the country, how do you think things are going overall?
[13:09.980 --> 13:12.980]  I think we're going in the wrong direction
[13:12.980 --> 13:19.980]  I think that there needs to be a 360 turnaround into where we're going now with the economy
[13:19.980 --> 13:23.980]  And I think also our world standing has declined
[13:23.980 --> 13:27.980]  We read that the Iowa economy is doing pretty well, Jim
[13:27.980 --> 13:31.980]  Your unemployment rate overall is pretty good
[13:31.980 --> 13:35.980]  But you still have a pretty negative view about the economy, is that right?
[13:35.980 --> 13:38.980]  My wife and I were both retired
[13:38.980 --> 13:42.980]  We have our pensions, but we also have investments, which took a pretty big hit
[13:42.980 --> 13:45.980]  And it's the uncertainty of what's going to happen
[13:45.980 --> 13:49.980]  We're doing fine now, but when it's not doing anything to get better
[13:49.980 --> 13:55.980]  And Congress can't agree on what day of the week it is, how are we ever going to get anything solved
[13:55.980 --> 13:58.980]  So we are quite concerned about the future and what's going to happen there
[13:58.980 --> 14:00.980]  BJ, what about for you?
[14:00.980 --> 14:04.980]  I mean, personally, how do you think things are going for you, for your family?
[14:04.980 --> 14:08.980]  Right now things are a little bit better, but we've had some tough times
[14:08.980 --> 14:12.980]  When I say that, I've never clipped a coupon in my life
[14:12.980 --> 14:17.980]  And now I take the Sunday paper not to read the news, but to go through the coupons and see what's in there
[14:17.980 --> 14:21.980]  And I may only save $5, but I'm so excited about that $5
[14:21.980 --> 14:23.980]  And Dave, what about you?
[14:23.980 --> 14:28.980]  Well, I'm personally, being self-employed, being in the car business, I've been pretty affected by it
[14:28.980 --> 14:30.980]  I think a lot of the small dealers have been hurt
[14:30.980 --> 14:37.980]  The impending crisis with the no lending and people are unsure of how to spend their money or when to spend their money
[14:37.980 --> 14:39.980]  Or if they should spend their money
[14:39.980 --> 14:42.980]  I think that's put a hurt on everybody
[14:42.980 --> 14:44.980]  People just don't have the money to spend it right now
[14:44.980 --> 14:49.980]  And if we can get the economy going, it'll heal all the social problems
[14:49.980 --> 14:51.980]  The social problems will all be by themselves
[14:51.980 --> 14:53.980]  We just need to get the economy going right now
[14:53.980 --> 14:59.980]  Sam, how do you see the importance of this election and how closely have you been following it?
[14:59.980 --> 15:01.980]  I've been following it very closely
[15:01.980 --> 15:06.980]  I've been lucky enough to shake the hand of every presidential candidate and look them in the eye
[15:06.980 --> 15:12.980]  Which I think says a lot about being in Iowa and you can also learn a lot from that exchange
[15:12.980 --> 15:19.980]  I think this election is really going to be a referendum on some really important issues to this country
[15:19.980 --> 15:23.980]  I think spending, how to balance the budget, the national debt
[15:23.980 --> 15:27.980]  All those issues are really going to be decided by this election
[15:27.980 --> 15:33.980]  And the American people are going to have to decide what solutions we want to go about to solve those problems
[15:33.980 --> 15:39.980]  BJ, what do you think right now? I mean, where are you leaning? The caucuses are just a few days away
[15:39.980 --> 15:43.980]  I'm leaning toward Newt Gingrich
[15:43.980 --> 15:48.980]  I've been leaning that way for a while because I think he's authentic
[15:48.980 --> 15:56.980]  He has success working with the opposite party
[15:56.980 --> 15:59.980]  And he seems to have a vision for the future
[15:59.980 --> 16:04.980]  Is there anybody else you're thinking about other than Gingrich at this point?
[16:04.980 --> 16:09.980]  I really like Michelle Bachmann because if you want to know the truth
[16:09.980 --> 16:13.980]  I'd like to see any man, and I suppose this is a feminist perspective
[16:13.980 --> 16:22.980]  I'd like to see any man start a business, go to school, raise five children and have 23 foster children
[16:22.980 --> 16:27.980]  I don't think a man could do that, so I think she runs circles around them
[16:27.980 --> 16:32.980]  And I like what she stands for, so she's a good multitasker
[16:32.980 --> 16:36.980]  Sam, what about you? Yeah, it seems to me with a lot of these candidates I'm leaning away
[16:36.980 --> 16:42.980]  And so I think two candidates that I'm leaning towards would be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul
[16:42.980 --> 16:48.980]  I think looking at their records, Mitt Romney's been a turnaround artist his entire career
[16:48.980 --> 16:52.980]  And I think that he could do a really great job turning around the economy
[16:52.980 --> 16:57.980]  And then Ron Paul really speaks to me as a young person, he's got a great youth following
[16:57.980 --> 17:00.980]  And I really like a lot of his libertarian stances
[17:00.980 --> 17:04.980]  What about you, Jim? Where are you leaning right now?
[17:04.980 --> 17:08.980]  Well if I vote principles, which I'm really leaning at just recently here
[17:08.980 --> 17:13.980]  Things have happened and I'm standing for that, would put me in Rick Santorum's camp
[17:13.980 --> 17:18.980]  I like the principles that he has, I think that's where a lot of our problem is
[17:18.980 --> 17:21.980]  We don't have virtuous and moral leaders
[17:21.980 --> 17:26.980]  Victoria, what about you? Where is your head right now, or heart, or both?
[17:26.980 --> 17:29.980]  It really is a struggle, I'm just being honest
[17:29.980 --> 17:34.980]  I don't know, I don't have that, it was so funny because for Huckabee I was like
[17:34.980 --> 17:40.980]  Yes, this is my guy, I want him, I'm going to go out, it was freezing, it was snow and ice
[17:40.980 --> 17:45.980]  Horrible the last time, I don't feel that for any candidate right now
[17:45.980 --> 17:51.980]  And that scares me, so that's why I'm just not loyal to any one person at this point
[17:51.980 --> 17:55.980]  Dave, what about you? How are you leaning right now?
[17:55.980 --> 17:59.980]  We have a couple candidates I think should have came to Iowa, should have campaigned here
[17:59.980 --> 18:03.980]  I think Mr. Huntsman is one of them, he should have thrown his hat in the ring
[18:03.980 --> 18:08.980]  He says a lot of good things, but whichever candidate is selected
[18:08.980 --> 18:13.980]  We need to get behind the candidate and beat Obama in 2012
[18:13.980 --> 18:18.980]  Jim, what about that? Because it sounds like you're saying something a little bit different from what Dave is saying
[18:18.980 --> 18:24.980]  I don't think we need to go into the polls, the only thing on our mind is who can beat him
[18:24.980 --> 18:28.980]  There's still ten months to go before the election
[18:28.980 --> 18:35.980]  And one of those down the bottom may be the rising star in actuality once they get out into the rest of the nation
[18:35.980 --> 18:40.980]  And so I think we need to pick a good candidate, I favor one that has good principles that I can trust
[18:40.980 --> 18:41.980]  Santorum
[18:41.980 --> 18:42.980]  Santorum, right
[18:42.980 --> 18:48.980]  But I think part of the problem that we have in this, I've never seen this many people so undecided this late in the game
[18:48.980 --> 18:53.980]  And I think a lot of that has to do with the massive number of debates that we've had
[18:53.980 --> 18:58.980]  And the form that the debates have had to where people are attacking each other, I mean we're attacking our own
[18:58.980 --> 19:02.980]  Anybody else on why it's so hard to make a decision this time?
[19:02.980 --> 19:08.980]  I mean you've touched on the fact that it is hard, but any thoughts about why, BJ?
[19:08.980 --> 19:13.980]  Mitt Romney cannot get past a certain level
[19:13.980 --> 19:18.980]  And he couldn't go up against Huckabee last time, although he spent gobs and gobs and gobs of money
[19:18.980 --> 19:23.980]  And to me Mitt Romney is the status quo in the Republican Party
[19:23.980 --> 19:27.980]  And I think a lot of us, I don't know how many of us are Tea Partiers or Libertarians
[19:27.980 --> 19:30.980]  We're dissatisfied with the status quo of the Republican Party
[19:30.980 --> 19:33.980]  And that's what Mitt Romney represents
[19:33.980 --> 19:38.980]  So I think that's why there's the fight, not the infighting, but the turmoil in our party
[19:38.980 --> 19:43.980]  Sam, what do you say to that? Because you said Romney was somebody you could support
[19:43.980 --> 19:45.980]  In fact, you mentioned him first
[19:45.980 --> 19:50.980]  Yeah, I think that Mitt Romney really brings a lot to the table
[19:50.980 --> 19:54.980]  And if you look at him against Newt Gingrich, I mean I don't mean to get candidate versus candidate here
[19:54.980 --> 20:01.980]  But Newt Gingrich has really been the textbook Washington insider for the last 40 years
[20:01.980 --> 20:06.980]  And so I don't know if I'm comfortable having that background in the White House
[20:06.980 --> 20:11.980]  Mitt Romney, he's not a true conservative, and we talk about being enthusiastic
[20:11.980 --> 20:17.980]  Conservatives cannot get enthusiastic about him, and that's why I think that there's that vacuum
[20:17.980 --> 20:20.980]  What about that, Jim? Because I think you're the one who said a few minutes ago
[20:20.980 --> 20:23.980]  We need somebody who's going to stick with their principles
[20:23.980 --> 20:28.980]  That's right, and my fear with Romney and why I don't like him is
[20:28.980 --> 20:31.980]  I believe government should be small
[20:31.980 --> 20:36.980]  Smaller government, less cost, people are responsible and they take care of themselves
[20:36.980 --> 20:39.980]  My feeling is anybody that wants to institute health care
[20:39.980 --> 20:41.980]  And I know they have a state constitution that says they can
[20:41.980 --> 20:44.980]  But that's somebody that wants big government
[20:44.980 --> 20:49.980]  Romney, I mean he's a nice guy, he's polished, he's back for a second time around
[20:49.980 --> 20:56.980]  But he's just not the person who I will get up in a snowstorm to vote for
[20:56.980 --> 20:58.980]  Some of you have mentioned Santorum
[20:58.980 --> 21:03.980]  Let me ask you, Sam, why didn't you bring up Rick Santorum?
[21:03.980 --> 21:06.980]  Well I think my problem with Rick Santorum as well as some of the other
[21:06.980 --> 21:09.980]  Maybe more socially conservative candidates is
[21:09.980 --> 21:11.980]  I think they dwell too much on social issues
[21:11.980 --> 21:16.980]  And while they might pass a credential check as far as their economic policies go
[21:16.980 --> 21:22.980]  I just don't think they're people, I think they alienate moderate voters and independents
[21:22.980 --> 21:27.980]  And while they might excite the base, I just don't see them doing well at all in a general election
[21:27.980 --> 21:29.980]  When do you think you're going to make up your mind?
[21:29.980 --> 21:31.980]  Probably Tuesday
[21:31.980 --> 21:35.980]  I'll have her done by Sunday, and then I'll think about it
[21:35.980 --> 21:39.980]  Well we appreciate all of you talking with us about these caucuses
[21:39.980 --> 21:41.980]  Thank you very much
[21:41.980 --> 21:42.980]  Thank you
[21:42.980 --> 21:45.980]  You're very welcome, thanks for having us
[21:45.980 --> 21:51.980]  For the record, Texas Governor Rick Perry's name did not come up in Judy's discussion
[21:51.980 --> 21:56.980]  As we heard in Judy's conversation, four years ago it was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
[21:56.980 --> 22:01.980]  Who beat Mitt Romney and all others to win the Iowa Republican caucus
[22:01.980 --> 22:06.980]  His success came with the strong support of conservative evangelical Christians
[22:06.980 --> 22:10.980]  Tonight's edition of Need to Know explores the power of the religious right in Iowa
[22:10.980 --> 22:14.980]  This excerpt looks at the influence of one man in particular
[22:14.980 --> 22:17.980]  The correspondent is Rick Carr
[22:17.980 --> 22:21.980]  Bob Vander Plaats was chairman of Mike Huckabee's Iowa campaign in 08
[22:21.980 --> 22:27.980]  Then he led a campaign against three state supreme court justices who ruled in favor of gay marriage
[22:27.980 --> 22:30.980]  And ended up driving them out of office
[22:30.980 --> 22:35.980]  Now he runs an advocacy group for social conservatives called the Family Leader
[22:35.980 --> 22:38.980]  And Fox News calls him a kingmaker in Iowa
[22:38.980 --> 22:43.980]  The Los Angeles Times wrote that meeting with you is a prerequisite for any candidate who wants to compete
[22:43.980 --> 22:46.980]  In Iowa. Is that true?
[22:46.980 --> 22:49.980]  I don't know if it's a prerequisite to meet with me
[22:49.980 --> 22:53.980]  But I believe it's the issues that our organization represents
[22:53.980 --> 23:00.980]  And our supporters are very, very sincere about these issues
[23:00.980 --> 23:04.980]  They're very interested in who's going to champion these issues
[23:04.980 --> 23:08.980]  Our supporters are going to show up on caucus night
[23:08.980 --> 23:12.980]  In November, the Family Leader hosted a forum for GOP hopefuls
[23:12.980 --> 23:17.980]  We don't need you to be Republican or Democrat, but we need you to be Biblical
[23:17.980 --> 23:23.980]  And the candidates lined up to tout their fealty to socially conservative positions
[23:23.980 --> 23:30.980]  The left is prepared to impose intolerance and to drive out of existence traditional religion
[23:30.980 --> 23:32.980]  They slammed abortion rights
[23:32.980 --> 23:36.980]  I have supported the amendment that defines life at conception
[23:36.980 --> 23:44.980]  As long as abortion is legal, at least according to the Supreme Court, legal in this country, we will never have rest
[23:44.980 --> 23:45.980]  Gay marriage
[23:45.980 --> 23:52.980]  The family is defined as one man, one woman, no other definition will do
[23:52.980 --> 23:54.980]  And what they call Obamacare
[23:54.980 --> 24:00.980]  Obamacare has to go because it's trying to tell us how to deliver health care in our states
[24:00.980 --> 24:05.980]  The candidates came because conservative evangelical voters are organized and motivated
[24:05.980 --> 24:07.980]  They turn up on caucus night
[24:07.980 --> 24:15.980]  And endorsements from socially conservative groups like the Family Leader could turn one of them into the Mike Huckabee of the current campaign
[24:15.980 --> 24:21.980]  But Vander Plaats says none of them ended up stealing the hearts of Iowa's conservative evangelicals
[24:21.980 --> 24:24.980]  We had six candidates in our Thanksgiving family forum
[24:24.980 --> 24:30.980]  And I think it was my wife afterwards who said, you know Bob, if we could take those six and put them in a blender
[24:30.980 --> 24:33.980]  And just have the strengths come out and have one candidate
[24:33.980 --> 24:36.980]  And I said, darling, you're getting awfully close to cloning
[24:36.980 --> 24:39.980]  But we would have a perfect candidate
[24:39.980 --> 24:43.980]  And I think what we're realizing today, there is no perfect candidate
[24:43.980 --> 24:48.980]  A postscript Bob Vander Plaats ended up endorsing Rick Santorum
[24:48.980 --> 24:53.980]  There were published reports last week that Vander Plaats sought up to a million dollars for his endorsement
[24:53.980 --> 24:56.980]  Allegations he vigorously denied
[24:56.980 --> 25:07.980]  Need to Know airs on most PBS stations tonight
[25:07.980 --> 25:14.980]  And to the analysis of Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York Times columnist David Brooks
[25:14.980 --> 25:22.980]  David from Iowa, do you have a big picture portrait of the setting, the scene there tonight?
[25:22.980 --> 25:27.980]  Well there are some human interest stories. I got to see Newt Gingrich cry today, something I'd never seen before
[25:27.980 --> 25:33.980]  He was asked some very personal questions about his life and he talked about how he's sadder and slower than he used to be
[25:33.980 --> 25:36.980]  And then he was asked about his mom and his face just dissolved in tears
[25:36.980 --> 25:41.980]  And you know, the candidates are very tired, Gingrich's numbers are falling, they're under a lot of pressure
[25:41.980 --> 25:43.980]  And so you got to see that human element
[25:43.980 --> 25:47.980]  The big thing that comes from all the different campaigns is a sense of looking backward
[25:47.980 --> 25:52.980]  There's a theme in almost every single race, which is America has lost something that it once had
[25:52.980 --> 25:57.980]  And so we have to look backward, it's about restoration, restoring old values, we've strayed
[25:57.980 --> 26:03.980]  And this is a theme which is sort of a negative and pessimistic theme, an almost apocalyptic theme
[26:03.980 --> 26:08.980]  That one finds in Mitt Romney, one finds it in Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul
[26:08.980 --> 26:11.980]  It's all about we had this magic and we've lost it
[26:11.980 --> 26:14.980]  How do you see the big picture, Mark?
[26:14.980 --> 26:20.980]  I think the point David made is one worth repeating, and that is American campaigns are about the future
[26:20.980 --> 26:24.980]  And this campaign has really been an awful lot about the past
[26:24.980 --> 26:31.980]  And it's kind of fascinating to see, I felt like Rick Santorum really vault from nowhere after campaigning
[26:31.980 --> 26:35.980]  99 counties doing the classic meeting voters and so forth
[26:35.980 --> 26:39.980]  But absent from his message that I get is any upbeat
[26:39.980 --> 26:43.980]  I mean there's sort of a gloom and doom to it
[26:43.980 --> 26:46.980]  But I think Jim, this has been a remarkable race
[26:46.980 --> 26:52.980]  At separate times during this year, six different candidates have led in the polls in Iowa
[26:52.980 --> 26:59.980]  So it's up for grabs and it's very much, Tuesday will determine who goes forward
[26:59.980 --> 27:06.980]  I mean some candidacies will end just outside of the Des Moines Airport on Wednesday morning
[27:06.980 --> 27:09.980]  Let's talk about Romney for a moment, beginning with you David
[27:09.980 --> 27:15.980]  How do you read the situation on Romney right now, where he stands and what his prospects are in Iowa?
[27:15.980 --> 27:19.980]  He's exuding confidence, I think his people are exuding confidence
[27:19.980 --> 27:21.980]  I went to a rally this morning in the rain
[27:21.980 --> 27:25.980]  And he was with Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey
[27:25.980 --> 27:29.980]  And it was just a smooth, effective, not too long, but sort of a corporate race
[27:29.980 --> 27:32.980]  It was like George Bush in year 2000
[27:32.980 --> 27:35.980]  And what's interesting is the tactic he's taking
[27:35.980 --> 27:38.980]  It's very short on policy, it's very long on patriotism
[27:38.980 --> 27:41.980]  He talks about driving across the country looking at the national parks
[27:41.980 --> 27:46.980]  He sings or at least recites some verses from the Star Spangled Banner
[27:46.980 --> 27:48.980]  It's as if he's running to be Tom Sawyer
[27:48.980 --> 27:52.980]  And I think it's a way to establish a connection with voters
[27:52.980 --> 27:55.980]  Even despite questions they may have about Mormonism or anything else
[27:55.980 --> 28:00.980]  I think it's a way to distinguish in his eyes between him and Barack Obama
[28:00.980 --> 28:01.980]  He's more mainstream
[28:01.980 --> 28:03.980]  And then again this theme of returning
[28:03.980 --> 28:08.980]  As posing as Tom Sawyer, he's returning to some earlier values
[28:08.980 --> 28:10.980]  And you know that may play this year
[28:10.980 --> 28:11.980]  Mark is absolutely right
[28:11.980 --> 28:14.980]  Rick Santorum and a lot of the candidates are very negative
[28:14.980 --> 28:17.980]  The guy who won it four years ago, Mike Huckabee, very positive
[28:17.980 --> 28:20.980]  But the mood here has darkened appreciably
[28:20.980 --> 28:24.980]  And maybe they're in tune with what the voters are hearing right now
[28:24.980 --> 28:26.980]  But Mark, you heard what Judy said
[28:26.980 --> 28:29.980]  Her feeling was that the polls show that there's a cap
[28:29.980 --> 28:32.980]  That cap is still there for Romney
[28:32.980 --> 28:34.980]  It's working to his advantage
[28:34.980 --> 28:38.980]  Because everybody else is so split up, right?
[28:38.980 --> 28:39.980]  That's right, Jim
[28:39.980 --> 28:44.980]  Nobody has been able to consolidate, for example, the religious conservative vote
[28:44.980 --> 28:48.980]  Although it seems that Rick Santorum has made great inroads there
[28:48.980 --> 28:52.980]  But no, there seems to be a ceiling on Mitt Romney
[28:52.980 --> 28:56.980]  It was kind of fascinating at the beginning of the month of December
[28:56.980 --> 29:02.980]  In the Gallup poll, he trailed Newt Gingrich 37 to 23
[29:02.980 --> 29:04.980]  You know, 14-point deficit
[29:04.980 --> 29:08.980]  He now leads Newt Gingrich 27 to 22
[29:08.980 --> 29:11.980]  It means Gingrich has plummeted and all the rest of it
[29:11.980 --> 29:12.980]  Romney has just moved up, though
[29:12.980 --> 29:15.980]  He just broke the 25-point barrier
[29:15.980 --> 29:20.980]  I think what Romney's campaign has been about is not so great expectations
[29:20.980 --> 29:24.980]  They've tried to lower the expectations in Iowa all year
[29:24.980 --> 29:28.980]  But David's right, I think there's a sense now that they could win in Iowa
[29:28.980 --> 29:32.980]  Or even if Ron Paul wins, that's not the worst thing in the world to them
[29:32.980 --> 29:34.980]  They feel in the long run
[29:34.980 --> 29:40.980]  But the knockout punch in both Iowa and New Hampshire would do for him
[29:40.980 --> 29:45.980]  The Romney people feel what it did for George W. Bush in 2000
[29:45.980 --> 29:48.980]  When he sewed up the Republican nomination, essentially
[29:48.980 --> 29:57.980]  In 2004, when John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire
[29:57.980 --> 30:01.980]  Of course, in 2000, he lost to John McCain in New Hampshire
[30:01.980 --> 30:04.980]  But that one-two punch is really formidable
[30:04.980 --> 30:06.980]  Alright, now, about Ron Paul
[30:06.980 --> 30:10.980]  David, as Mark just said, Ron Paul's up there
[30:10.980 --> 30:13.980]  And what is that going to mean?
[30:13.980 --> 30:15.980]  If you don't say he wins, that's one thing
[30:15.980 --> 30:19.980]  But even if he comes in a close second, what's it going to mean for the race generally?
[30:19.980 --> 30:22.980]  For Ron Paul to do that well in Iowa?
[30:22.980 --> 30:26.980]  Well, the thing the Romney people like is their two main rivals right now
[30:26.980 --> 30:28.980]  Are Ron Paul and Rick Santorum
[30:28.980 --> 30:30.980]  People think Gingrich's campaign might have legs
[30:30.980 --> 30:32.980]  Or Rick Perry's campaign might have legs
[30:32.980 --> 30:35.980]  But I don't think they're too worried about Santorum and Paul having legs
[30:35.980 --> 30:40.980]  So having rivals like that is good for the Romney camp
[30:40.980 --> 30:44.980]  The Paul people are young, they're organized, they're very diverse
[30:44.980 --> 30:49.980]  There are some veterans, some older people, a lot of students, a lot of gold bugs
[30:49.980 --> 30:51.980]  Some people who want drug legalization
[30:51.980 --> 30:54.980]  It's about as diverse a group of people as you can possibly imagine
[30:54.980 --> 30:59.980]  And there's a supposition that Paul, like Santorum, probably is under polling
[30:59.980 --> 31:01.980]  That there are more people and they're more mobilized
[31:01.980 --> 31:04.980]  Both in the libertarian camp and the social conservative camp
[31:04.980 --> 31:08.980]  And so historically, people in those camps have done a little better than the final polls
[31:08.980 --> 31:11.980]  So there's upside for him
[31:11.980 --> 31:16.980]  And it's funny, the way he campaigns, he campaigns like the audience isn't there
[31:16.980 --> 31:20.980]  He gives his talks, whether they're applauding, not listening, not
[31:20.980 --> 31:22.980]  He's going to tell you what he thinks
[31:22.980 --> 31:27.980]  So there's no real superstar, there's no stump superstar
[31:27.980 --> 31:30.980]  Who really can galvanize a crowd among this group
[31:30.980 --> 31:33.980]  The way Huckabee did, the way John Edwards did, the way Barack Obama did
[31:33.980 --> 31:37.980]  As a series of stump performers, I would say it's a below average year
[31:37.980 --> 31:40.980]  And Paul, doing very well, is certainly not raising that average
[31:40.980 --> 31:45.980]  How do you account for Santorum's surge?
[31:45.980 --> 31:47.980]  Just a quick thing on Ron Paul
[31:47.980 --> 31:50.980]  The word in 2008, remember authenticity?
[31:50.980 --> 31:52.980]  Ron Paul exudes authenticity
[31:52.980 --> 31:54.980]  He says the same thing wherever he goes
[31:54.980 --> 31:56.980]  Others trim, they pander
[31:56.980 --> 32:00.980]  They play to the crowd, what do you want to hear?
[32:00.980 --> 32:02.980]  Ron Paul is just the opposite
[32:02.980 --> 32:07.980]  And he has, unlike Santorum and even Gingrich at this point
[32:07.980 --> 32:12.980]  He has money and the ability to raise money in small contributions from a lot of different people
[32:12.980 --> 32:14.980]  But Santorum has been saying the same thing too
[32:14.980 --> 32:15.980]  Santorum has been
[32:15.980 --> 32:17.980]  In his own way, I mean
[32:17.980 --> 32:22.980]  That's right, he has sounded the themes that have been the credo of modern conservatism
[32:22.980 --> 32:25.980]  Strong, muscular foreign policy
[32:25.980 --> 32:31.980]  Social religious conservatives and economic fiscal conservatism
[32:31.980 --> 32:37.980]  And I think that there's a sense in Iowa that he's worked for it
[32:37.980 --> 32:40.980]  He's visited the 99 counties
[32:40.980 --> 32:42.980]  He's done it the retail way
[32:42.980 --> 32:47.980]  He's listened to the hairdressers and the auto mechanics
[32:47.980 --> 32:51.980]  And I think that there is a connection point
[32:51.980 --> 32:55.980]  And especially now with the religious and social conservatives, I think he's caught on
[32:55.980 --> 32:57.980]  And that the others have fallen apart
[32:57.980 --> 32:59.980]  By the wayside, so hey, here's Santorum
[32:59.980 --> 33:01.980]  Well, he never had the moment in the sun
[33:01.980 --> 33:03.980]  I mean, the others were all Icarus
[33:03.980 --> 33:06.980]  I mean, they got close to the sun and then boom
[33:06.980 --> 33:09.980]  How do you read Santorum, David?
[33:09.980 --> 33:13.980]  Yeah, to me this is less about the candidates and their personalities
[33:13.980 --> 33:16.980]  And more about just raw demographics and philosophy
[33:16.980 --> 33:20.980]  Year after year there are a lot of social conservatives in this state
[33:20.980 --> 33:24.980]  And this goes back to the time many elections ago when Pat Robertson did well here
[33:24.980 --> 33:25.980]  Let alone Mike Huckabee
[33:25.980 --> 33:27.980]  And those social conservatives have always been here
[33:27.980 --> 33:29.980]  They're going to vote for a social conservative candidate
[33:29.980 --> 33:31.980]  And Santorum is a homeschooler
[33:31.980 --> 33:33.980]  He homeschools his kids
[33:33.980 --> 33:36.980]  He's genuinely of the community even though he is Catholic
[33:36.980 --> 33:38.980]  And so they're going to go for that guy
[33:38.980 --> 33:41.980]  There are genuinely a lot of libertarians among the voters here
[33:41.980 --> 33:43.980]  And they're going to go for Ron Paul
[33:43.980 --> 33:46.980]  And whether they perform well or not is almost beside the point
[33:46.980 --> 33:49.980]  At this point, those people are going to express their point of view
[33:49.980 --> 33:51.980]  And so there are just a lot of those voters in this state
[33:51.980 --> 33:53.980]  Let's go back to Gingrich for a moment, David
[33:53.980 --> 33:55.980]  You said you saw him cry today
[33:55.980 --> 33:59.980]  His polls show that he has really dropped
[33:59.980 --> 34:01.980]  And why?
[34:01.980 --> 34:06.980]  And does he have a chance of coming out of Iowa in any way that could give him legs?
[34:06.980 --> 34:09.980]  You said there's a possibility of legs for Gingrich
[34:09.980 --> 34:10.980]  Why?
[34:10.980 --> 34:12.980]  I asked you three questions in one
[34:12.980 --> 34:14.980]  Sorry about that
[34:14.980 --> 34:17.980]  Well, he's a candidate who has a long reputation
[34:17.980 --> 34:19.980]  And he's pretty good, you know
[34:19.980 --> 34:20.980]  I saw him today on the stump
[34:20.980 --> 34:22.980]  And he gives good answers that get applause going
[34:22.980 --> 34:25.980]  He's just a polished political performer
[34:25.980 --> 34:30.980]  The reason he's falling primarily is that there's a lot of ads on TV these days in Iowa
[34:30.980 --> 34:33.980]  And 47% of them are being run against Newt Gingrich
[34:33.980 --> 34:35.980]  There's just a ton of negative ads
[34:35.980 --> 34:39.980]  And he's got a lot that he freely admits he's vulnerable for
[34:39.980 --> 34:41.980]  And so people are learning about the divorces
[34:41.980 --> 34:44.980]  They're learning about the Freddie Mac lobbying
[34:44.980 --> 34:45.980]  And they're just not happy
[34:45.980 --> 34:47.980]  It's funny to watch him
[34:47.980 --> 34:50.980]  I happened to run into him in a hotel lobby last night
[34:50.980 --> 34:52.980]  And he was ebullient and very self-aware
[34:52.980 --> 34:53.980]  A very different sort of Newt Gingrich
[34:53.980 --> 34:55.980]  A little more mature than I'd seen him
[34:55.980 --> 34:57.980]  Very aware of his problems and his possibilities
[34:57.980 --> 35:00.980]  And then today, the emotional moment
[35:00.980 --> 35:02.980]  I wouldn't bet on him rebounding
[35:02.980 --> 35:06.980]  But he is someone who still can debate extremely well
[35:06.980 --> 35:08.980]  And that argument that he uses time and time again
[35:08.980 --> 35:10.980]  Who do you want to see debating Barack Obama
[35:10.980 --> 35:12.980]  That is one that resonates
[35:12.980 --> 35:13.980]  So I wouldn't totally count him out
[35:13.980 --> 35:15.980]  But I certainly wouldn't bet money on him
[35:15.980 --> 35:17.980]  You wouldn't either, would you?
[35:17.980 --> 35:21.980]  I think I'm probably less bullish on Newt Gingrich's ability
[35:21.980 --> 35:23.980]  To bounce back than David
[35:23.980 --> 35:26.980]  In 1996, after he lost, Bob Dole said
[35:26.980 --> 35:30.980]  I was told that people did not like negative ads
[35:30.980 --> 35:32.980]  I didn't run any, I lost
[35:32.980 --> 35:35.980]  And I think we're seeing that with Newt Gingrich
[35:35.980 --> 35:39.980]  I mean, David mentioned 45, 47 percent
[35:39.980 --> 35:43.980]  Of all the ads bought in Iowa in 2011
[35:43.980 --> 35:46.980]  Have been against Newt Gingrich
[35:46.980 --> 35:50.980]  That leaves 55 percent for anybody else a positive
[35:50.980 --> 35:53.980]  Perhaps the most effective was Ron Paul's
[35:53.980 --> 35:55.980]  Which was the serial hypocrisy ad
[35:55.980 --> 35:57.980]  So I think it's tough
[35:57.980 --> 36:00.980]  There's an awful lot that has got back to him
[36:00.980 --> 36:02.980]  I think probably the Freddie Mac
[36:02.980 --> 36:06.980]  Has really hurt him with conservatives in general
[36:06.980 --> 36:08.980]  And the historian explanation
[36:08.980 --> 36:11.980]  Secondly was really his appearing with Nancy Pelosi
[36:11.980 --> 36:13.980]  In that public service announcement
[36:13.980 --> 36:15.980]  On climate change
[36:15.980 --> 36:17.980]  He really hasn't
[36:17.980 --> 36:19.980]  On Iowa generally, both of you
[36:19.980 --> 36:21.980]  Beginning with you, David
[36:21.980 --> 36:25.980]  Should Iowa matter as much as it appears to at this point?
[36:25.980 --> 36:27.980]  I mean, we're talking about it
[36:27.980 --> 36:29.980]  The whole world is talking about it right now
[36:29.980 --> 36:31.980]  Should they be?
[36:31.980 --> 36:34.980]  Is this the way to choose candidates
[36:34.980 --> 36:36.980]  For president of the United States
[36:36.980 --> 36:38.980]  By starting with Iowa?
[36:38.980 --> 36:40.980]  Yeah, I still think so
[36:40.980 --> 36:43.980]  This is still my favorite place to cover a political race
[36:43.980 --> 36:45.980]  It's not the way it used to be
[36:45.980 --> 36:47.980]  It's not just George H.W. Bush driving around
[36:47.980 --> 36:49.980]  In a station wagon with one aide
[36:49.980 --> 36:51.980]  And maybe a press person
[36:51.980 --> 36:53.980]  Now there's clumps of people, there's big buses
[36:53.980 --> 36:55.980]  But it's still, it's more retail
[36:55.980 --> 36:57.980]  The people are really run through their paces
[36:57.980 --> 36:59.980]  Rick Perry tried
[36:59.980 --> 37:01.980]  Couldn't make it here
[37:01.980 --> 37:03.980]  Michelle Bachmann, we saw what happened to her
[37:03.980 --> 37:05.980]  Among voters here
[37:05.980 --> 37:07.980]  I think it's still a good testing ground
[37:07.980 --> 37:09.980]  Is it the most representative state in the country?
[37:09.980 --> 37:11.980]  Maybe not, but I still think it's a practiced
[37:11.980 --> 37:13.980]  Knowledgeable electorate
[37:13.980 --> 37:15.980]  Who are very good at putting candidates
[37:15.980 --> 37:17.980]  Through the ordeal of running
[37:17.980 --> 37:19.980]  And I do think it's a legitimate way to screen out candidates
[37:19.980 --> 37:21.980]  And give a couple a chance to move on
[37:21.980 --> 37:23.980]  You agree with that, don't you, Bob?
[37:23.980 --> 37:25.980]  I do, Jim
[37:25.980 --> 37:27.980]  Iowa is unrepresentative
[37:27.980 --> 37:29.980]  It has the fourth highest literacy rate of the 50 states
[37:29.980 --> 37:31.980]  It has the third lowest divorce rate
[37:31.980 --> 37:33.980]  It has the sixth highest high school graduation rate
[37:33.980 --> 37:35.980]  Higher than the coastal
[37:35.980 --> 37:37.980]  Smug states of Connecticut
[37:37.980 --> 37:39.980]  New Jersey, Virginia
[37:39.980 --> 37:41.980]  Maryland, Massachusetts
[37:41.980 --> 37:43.980]  Oregon, Washington
[37:43.980 --> 37:45.980]  You know, and the people take it
[37:45.980 --> 37:47.980]  Quite seriously
[37:47.980 --> 37:49.980]  And I always feel better after I've been in Iowa
[37:49.980 --> 37:51.980]  And I will feel better after Tuesday night again
[37:51.980 --> 37:53.980]  Okay, Mark, David
[37:53.980 --> 37:55.980]  Thank you both very much
[38:01.980 --> 38:03.980]  Now, two stories
[38:03.980 --> 38:05.980]  About the changing portrait of America
[38:05.980 --> 38:07.980]  First, a different kind of life
[38:07.980 --> 38:09.980]  In the suburbs
[38:09.980 --> 38:11.980]  Between 2000 and 2010
[38:11.980 --> 38:13.980]  The number of people living below the poverty line
[38:13.980 --> 38:15.980]  In U.S. suburbs increased by more
[38:15.980 --> 38:17.980]  Than 50 percent, a trend
[38:17.980 --> 38:19.980]  That accelerated during the recession
[38:19.980 --> 38:21.980]  It's happening in places that have long
[38:21.980 --> 38:23.980]  Been middle class, as well as
[38:23.980 --> 38:25.980]  In richer neighborhoods
[38:25.980 --> 38:27.980]  Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago
[38:27.980 --> 38:29.980]  Has our story
[38:31.980 --> 38:33.980]  DuPage County, Illinois is one of the wealthiest
[38:33.980 --> 38:35.980]  Counties in the country
[38:35.980 --> 38:37.980]  Comfortable homes sit on tree lined streets
[38:37.980 --> 38:39.980]  In the suburb of Wheaton
[38:39.980 --> 38:41.980]  Eight miles west of Chicago
[38:41.980 --> 38:43.980]  Upscale restaurants
[38:43.980 --> 38:45.980]  And shops lie in the historic downtown
[38:45.980 --> 38:47.980]  But there is another
[38:47.980 --> 38:49.980]  Side to DuPage County
[38:49.980 --> 38:51.980]  One that would have been unthinkable
[38:51.980 --> 38:53.980]  A few years ago
[38:53.980 --> 38:55.980]  It includes packed
[38:55.980 --> 38:57.980]  Food pantries and crowds
[38:57.980 --> 38:59.980]  At the county welfare office
[38:59.980 --> 39:01.980]  Candace King coordinates
[39:01.980 --> 39:03.980]  Human services in DuPage County
[39:03.980 --> 39:05.980]  And she has watched
[39:05.980 --> 39:07.980]  Poverty grow
[39:07.980 --> 39:09.980]  It's exploded
[39:09.980 --> 39:11.980]  In the 16 years that I've been in my job
[39:11.980 --> 39:13.980]  It has gone from something
[39:13.980 --> 39:15.980]  That was rarely
[39:15.980 --> 39:17.980]  Encountered in this community
[39:17.980 --> 39:19.980]  And certainly no one thought it was here
[39:19.980 --> 39:21.980]  To an issue
[39:21.980 --> 39:23.980]  That we encounter every day
[39:23.980 --> 39:25.980]  Over the last 20 years, poverty in
[39:25.980 --> 39:27.980]  DuPage County has grown by
[39:27.980 --> 39:29.980]  185 percent
[39:29.980 --> 39:31.980]  Nearly 60,000 people
[39:31.980 --> 39:33.980]  Here live in poverty
[39:33.980 --> 39:35.980]  Defined by the federal government as earning
[39:35.980 --> 39:37.980]  $22,350 a year
[39:37.980 --> 39:39.980]  For a family of four
[39:39.980 --> 39:41.980]  And now a Brookings
[39:41.980 --> 39:43.980]  Institute analysis of census data
[39:43.980 --> 39:45.980]  Finds that for the first time
[39:45.980 --> 39:47.980]  In the Chicago area, there are more
[39:47.980 --> 39:49.980]  People in poverty in the suburbs
[39:49.980 --> 39:51.980]  Than in the city
[39:51.980 --> 39:53.980]  In this
[39:53.980 --> 39:55.980]  Wheaton housing complex, 11
[39:55.980 --> 39:57.980]  Of the town homes are in foreclosure
[39:57.980 --> 39:59.980]  After almost two years
[39:59.980 --> 40:01.980]  Of trying, 43-year-old
[40:01.980 --> 40:03.980]  Catherine Aravoces was
[40:03.980 --> 40:05.980]  Finally able to renegotiate her
[40:05.980 --> 40:07.980]  Mortgage and save her home
[40:07.980 --> 40:09.980]  But she and her two children
[40:09.980 --> 40:11.980]  Live far below the
[40:11.980 --> 40:13.980]  Poverty line. Aravoces
[40:13.980 --> 40:15.980]  Had a middle class upbringing
[40:15.980 --> 40:17.980]  Her father was a college professor
[40:17.980 --> 40:19.980]  And in 2008, she got
[40:19.980 --> 40:21.980]  Her second master's degree
[40:21.980 --> 40:23.980]  This one in elementary education
[40:23.980 --> 40:25.980]  But because of
[40:25.980 --> 40:27.980]  Cuts in state education funding
[40:27.980 --> 40:29.980]  She hasn't been able to find
[40:29.980 --> 40:31.980]  A full-time teaching job
[40:31.980 --> 40:33.980]  Last year, she made
[40:33.980 --> 40:35.980]  $11,000 as a substitute
[40:35.980 --> 40:37.980]  Teacher, far less
[40:37.980 --> 40:39.980]  Than what she needs to support her two
[40:39.980 --> 40:41.980]  Children. It has been
[40:41.980 --> 40:43.980]  Hard for me
[40:43.980 --> 40:45.980]  Because I want to
[40:45.980 --> 40:47.980]  Provide for them in a way my
[40:47.980 --> 40:49.980]  Parents provided for me
[40:49.980 --> 40:51.980]  I never
[40:51.980 --> 40:53.980]  Knew what my parents made
[40:53.980 --> 40:57.980]  I never had to worry about a thing
[40:57.980 --> 40:59.980]  We just lived
[40:59.980 --> 41:01.980]  A really stable
[41:01.980 --> 41:03.980]  Typical middle class
[41:03.980 --> 41:05.980]  Existence
[41:05.980 --> 41:07.980]  And for my children
[41:07.980 --> 41:09.980]  They don't have that sense of security
[41:09.980 --> 41:11.980]  That I had
[41:11.980 --> 41:13.980]  They know when I'm stressed and that hurts
[41:13.980 --> 41:15.980]  You'll get one item out of the bucket
[41:15.980 --> 41:17.980]  Behind him. Aravoces is part
[41:17.980 --> 41:19.980]  Of the newly poor demographic
[41:19.980 --> 41:21.980]  That accounts for much of the rise
[41:21.980 --> 41:23.980]  In poverty in the suburbs
[41:23.980 --> 41:25.980]  Ten years ago, she
[41:25.980 --> 41:27.980]  And her husband, an architect
[41:27.980 --> 41:29.980]  Were earning a six-figure income
[41:29.980 --> 41:31.980]  And living in a five-bedroom home
[41:31.980 --> 41:33.980]  In Wheaton. They divorced
[41:33.980 --> 41:35.980]  In 2004
[41:35.980 --> 41:37.980]  Her former husband's architectural commissions
[41:37.980 --> 41:39.980]  Dried up in 2008
[41:39.980 --> 41:41.980]  And he has had trouble making child
[41:41.980 --> 41:43.980]  Support payments. Aravoces
[41:43.980 --> 41:45.980]  Tried to get Medicaid for her children
[41:45.980 --> 41:47.980]  But the state threatened to
[41:47.980 --> 41:49.980]  Take her former husband's architect
[41:49.980 --> 41:51.980]  License because of lack of child
[41:51.980 --> 41:53.980]  Support, and she backed off.
[41:53.980 --> 41:55.980]  It's those days when you
[41:55.980 --> 41:57.980]  Get up and you really don't know
[41:57.980 --> 41:59.980]  What you're going to give your kids for dinner
[41:59.980 --> 42:01.980]  And it can be
[42:01.980 --> 42:03.980]  A full-time job
[42:03.980 --> 42:05.980]  Finding out how am I
[42:05.980 --> 42:07.980]  Going to get glasses, her prescription is a year
[42:07.980 --> 42:09.980]  Old, and where
[42:09.980 --> 42:11.980]  Am I going to, you know, how do I go and
[42:11.980 --> 42:13.980]  Get her the shots she needs, she's going
[42:13.980 --> 42:15.980]  To sixth grade, not having
[42:15.980 --> 42:17.980]  The health insurance, not having
[42:17.980 --> 42:19.980]  The basic
[42:19.980 --> 42:21.980]  Things that people take for granted
[42:21.980 --> 42:23.980]  Being able to get their kid to the
[42:23.980 --> 42:25.980]  Doctor
[42:25.980 --> 42:27.980]  You know, when they come home and say
[42:27.980 --> 42:29.980]  We need five dollars for school, there's
[42:29.980 --> 42:31.980]  Always something, and
[42:31.980 --> 42:33.980]  Sometimes you have to say
[42:33.980 --> 42:35.980]  I don't have it
[42:35.980 --> 42:37.980]  I just don't have it, I'm sorry
[42:37.980 --> 42:39.980]  Today, dinner comes
[42:39.980 --> 42:41.980]  From the local food pantry
[42:41.980 --> 42:43.980]  She cooks in her crockpot
[42:43.980 --> 42:45.980]  Or microwave, since she can't
[42:45.980 --> 42:47.980]  Afford to repair her broken stove
[42:47.980 --> 42:49.980]  Like many of the
[42:49.980 --> 42:51.980]  Suburban poor, Aravosa's
[42:51.980 --> 42:53.980]  Never thought she would need help
[42:53.980 --> 42:55.980]  Buying food
[42:55.980 --> 42:57.980]  I didn't expect to be using the
[42:57.980 --> 42:59.980]  Food pantry, especially not on a regular
[42:59.980 --> 43:01.980]  Basis, but you know
[43:01.980 --> 43:03.980]  I'm working and
[43:03.980 --> 43:05.980]  I'm not making
[43:05.980 --> 43:07.980]  Enough money to make ends meet
[43:07.980 --> 43:09.980]  So it's very humbling
[43:09.980 --> 43:11.980]  But I swallowed my pride and I
[43:11.980 --> 43:13.980]  Went to the people's resource center and I asked
[43:13.980 --> 43:15.980]  For help
[43:15.980 --> 43:17.980]  Okay, I have to have a pumpkin, right?
[43:17.980 --> 43:19.980]  Aravosa's can fill up a shopping cart
[43:19.980 --> 43:21.980]  Once a week at the people's resource
[43:21.980 --> 43:23.980]  Center. The number of
[43:23.980 --> 43:25.980]  People using this food pantry in Wheaton
[43:25.980 --> 43:27.980]  Has gone up by 200
[43:27.980 --> 43:29.980]  Percent in the last five years
[43:29.980 --> 43:31.980]  There was a 30 percent
[43:31.980 --> 43:33.980]  Jump in 2008 alone
[43:33.980 --> 43:35.980]  Make sure all the cart handles are clean
[43:35.980 --> 43:37.980]  The resource center's program director
[43:37.980 --> 43:39.980]  Melissa Travis, says many
[43:39.980 --> 43:41.980]  Of their clients are new
[43:41.980 --> 43:43.980]  To poverty. Oftentimes
[43:43.980 --> 43:45.980]  The first time they come, they break into tears
[43:45.980 --> 43:47.980]  Because they can't imagine that they would ever
[43:47.980 --> 43:49.980]  Need help in a way like this
[43:49.980 --> 43:51.980]  They've been people that have paid taxes
[43:51.980 --> 43:53.980]  They're people that have volunteered and helped in places
[43:53.980 --> 43:55.980]  Like this in the past, and now suddenly
[43:55.980 --> 43:57.980]  They have to go and seek out that
[43:57.980 --> 43:59.980]  Assistance, so we give a lot
[43:59.980 --> 44:01.980]  Of hugs. Mary Kay
[44:01.980 --> 44:03.980]  Hopp could have used a hug the day she came
[44:03.980 --> 44:05.980]  To the food pantry. A registered
[44:05.980 --> 44:07.980]  Nurse, Hopp has been out of
[44:07.980 --> 44:09.980]  Work for several years
[44:09.980 --> 44:11.980]  She grew up in Wheaton and enjoyed
[44:11.980 --> 44:13.980]  A far different lifestyle
[44:13.980 --> 44:15.980]  My dad had a good
[44:15.980 --> 44:17.980]  Job. We had the big house and the
[44:17.980 --> 44:19.980]  Cars and all those other things
[44:19.980 --> 44:21.980]  New wardrobe for school when that
[44:21.980 --> 44:23.980]  Time of the year came around
[44:23.980 --> 44:25.980]  I think that I'm one of the people who
[44:25.980 --> 44:27.980]  Didn't have to go without much
[44:27.980 --> 44:29.980]  And
[44:29.980 --> 44:31.980]  Yeah, it's a whole flip
[44:31.980 --> 44:33.980]  Side of that. Three
[44:33.980 --> 44:35.980]  Months of unemployment brought
[44:35.980 --> 44:37.980]  Mariano Menendez and his family to the
[44:37.980 --> 44:39.980]  Food pantry for the first time
[44:39.980 --> 44:41.980]  Did you think you'd ever wind up
[44:41.980 --> 44:43.980]  Coming to a food pantry? No, no of course
[44:43.980 --> 44:45.980]  Not, never, never. I've had
[44:45.980 --> 44:47.980]  Good jobs, I've
[44:47.980 --> 44:49.980]  Made good income
[44:49.980 --> 44:51.980]  I've never in my wildest
[44:51.980 --> 44:53.980]  Dreams, so yeah
[44:53.980 --> 44:55.980]  I'm definitely very grateful for this
[44:55.980 --> 44:57.980]  It's an amazing
[44:57.980 --> 44:59.980]  Amazing service that they offer here
[44:59.980 --> 45:01.980]  Their dramatic increase in
[45:01.980 --> 45:03.980]  Poverty in suburban DuPage County
[45:03.980 --> 45:05.980]  Mirrors the increase in poverty
[45:05.980 --> 45:07.980]  In suburban areas across the country
[45:07.980 --> 45:09.980]  That leaves human service
[45:09.980 --> 45:11.980]  Agencies struggling to meet the
[45:11.980 --> 45:13.980]  Needs in their communities
[45:13.980 --> 45:15.980]  Yet federal state and local
[45:15.980 --> 45:17.980]  Funding still goes disproportionately
[45:17.980 --> 45:19.980]  To urban areas
[45:19.980 --> 45:21.980]  That lack of federal and
[45:21.980 --> 45:23.980]  State resources to fight suburban
[45:23.980 --> 45:25.980]  Poverty leaves existing agencies
[45:25.980 --> 45:27.980]  Overwhelmed
[45:27.980 --> 45:29.980]  All of the growth in poverty
[45:29.980 --> 45:31.980]  In the state of Illinois has
[45:31.980 --> 45:33.980]  Been in the suburban area
[45:33.980 --> 45:35.980]  My organization did an analysis
[45:35.980 --> 45:37.980]  Of federal
[45:37.980 --> 45:39.980]  Funding and
[45:39.980 --> 45:41.980]  Some state funding and private
[45:41.980 --> 45:43.980]  Philanthropic funding and
[45:43.980 --> 45:45.980]  Found that the city of Chicago
[45:45.980 --> 45:47.980]  Is getting up to four and five
[45:47.980 --> 45:49.980]  Times more per
[45:49.980 --> 45:51.980]  Poor person than DuPage County
[45:51.980 --> 45:53.980]  Is. That is not news
[45:53.980 --> 45:55.980]  To Melissa Travis at the People's Resource
[45:55.980 --> 45:57.980]  Center. We are stretched about
[45:57.980 --> 45:59.980]  Six weeks ago the food pantry was
[45:59.980 --> 46:01.980]  As empty as I've ever seen it in six and
[46:01.980 --> 46:03.980]  A half years. We were
[46:03.980 --> 46:05.980]  Trying to get through to our next delivery
[46:05.980 --> 46:07.980]  And just hoping that we had enough food
[46:07.980 --> 46:09.980]  To give everybody what they needed.
[46:09.980 --> 46:11.980]  It's been a devastating year in that regard.
[46:11.980 --> 46:13.980]  Unlike many of the
[46:13.980 --> 46:15.980]  Newly poor who have a hard time finding
[46:15.980 --> 46:17.980]  The resources that are available
[46:17.980 --> 46:19.980]  Catherine Arivoces has taken advantage
[46:19.980 --> 46:21.980]  Of all the programs at the People's
[46:21.980 --> 46:23.980]  Resource Center. She has
[46:23.980 --> 46:25.980]  Gotten clothes for herself and her kids
[46:25.980 --> 46:27.980]  And used the job counselors in her
[46:27.980 --> 46:29.980]  Effort to find a full time teaching job.
[46:29.980 --> 46:31.980]  But having to accept help
[46:31.980 --> 46:33.980]  Has changed the way
[46:33.980 --> 46:35.980]  She thinks of herself. I always
[46:35.980 --> 46:37.980]  Thought of myself as middle class. I had a middle class
[46:37.980 --> 46:39.980]  Upbringing. I had middle class
[46:39.980 --> 46:41.980]  Expectations.
[46:41.980 --> 46:43.980]  But the reality
[46:43.980 --> 46:45.980]  Is that I'm not
[46:45.980 --> 46:47.980]  Living a middle class lifestyle anymore.
[46:47.980 --> 46:49.980]  So no.
[46:49.980 --> 46:51.980]  I don't think so. I think I've fallen
[46:51.980 --> 46:53.980]  Out of the middle class.
[46:53.980 --> 46:55.980]  Like many
[46:55.980 --> 46:57.980]  In her situation she doesn't see much
[46:57.980 --> 46:59.980]  Hope of things improving.
[46:59.980 --> 47:01.980]  And while she wants to stay in Wheaton
[47:01.980 --> 47:03.980]  Life in suburbia
[47:03.980 --> 47:05.980]  Is far different than she
[47:05.980 --> 47:07.980]  Ever imagined it would be.
[47:15.980 --> 47:17.980]  And finally tonight our second
[47:17.980 --> 47:19.980]  Story on the shifting
[47:19.980 --> 47:21.980]  Trends in American life.
[47:21.980 --> 47:23.980]  This one's about the changing demographics
[47:23.980 --> 47:25.980]  Of marriage. Ray Suarez
[47:25.980 --> 47:27.980]  Has our conversation.
[47:27.980 --> 47:29.980]  For decades the fact that
[47:29.980 --> 47:31.980]  A sizable majority of Americans
[47:31.980 --> 47:33.980]  Were married shaped our politics
[47:33.980 --> 47:35.980]  Where we lived, where we worked
[47:35.980 --> 47:37.980]  And what we thought when we heard the word
[47:37.980 --> 47:39.980]  Family. Recently the Pew
[47:39.980 --> 47:41.980]  Research Center took a look at all of us
[47:41.980 --> 47:43.980]  Over 18 and found just
[47:43.980 --> 47:45.980]  51% are married.
[47:45.980 --> 47:47.980]  Down from more than 70% in
[47:47.980 --> 47:49.980]  1960. Stephanie Koontz
[47:49.980 --> 47:51.980]  Has been chronicling the changes in American
[47:51.980 --> 47:53.980]  Marriage for a long time. She teaches
[47:53.980 --> 47:55.980]  History and family studies at Evergreen
[47:55.980 --> 47:57.980]  State College in Washington and is
[47:57.980 --> 47:59.980]  Director of research at the Council on
[47:59.980 --> 48:01.980]  Contemporary Families. Professor
[48:01.980 --> 48:03.980]  Koontz welcome. We moved in 50 years
[48:03.980 --> 48:05.980]  From almost three quarters of
[48:05.980 --> 48:07.980]  Married adults to
[48:07.980 --> 48:09.980]  Barely half. What happened?
[48:09.980 --> 48:11.980]  What's pushing those numbers?
[48:11.980 --> 48:13.980]  Well one of the things that you have to
[48:13.980 --> 48:15.980]  Bear in mind is that 1960
[48:15.980 --> 48:17.980]  Was probably the most atypical year
[48:17.980 --> 48:19.980]  In 150 years.
[48:19.980 --> 48:21.980]  The age of marriage was at an all time low.
[48:21.980 --> 48:23.980]  Half of all women were married
[48:23.980 --> 48:25.980]  Before they got out of their teens.
[48:25.980 --> 48:27.980]  And the rate of marriage was at an all time
[48:27.980 --> 48:29.980]  High. So what's happened since then
[48:29.980 --> 48:31.980]  Primarily what's driving this is the
[48:31.980 --> 48:33.980]  Rise in the age of marriage. It's now
[48:33.980 --> 48:35.980]  Up to 26
[48:35.980 --> 48:37.980]  For women and 28 for
[48:37.980 --> 48:39.980]  Men. And that's actually a good thing
[48:39.980 --> 48:41.980]  Because the longer a woman delays
[48:41.980 --> 48:43.980]  Marriage right up until her early 30s
[48:43.980 --> 48:45.980]  The lower her chances of divorce.
[48:45.980 --> 48:47.980]  But it does totally change
[48:47.980 --> 48:49.980]  The social weight of married
[48:49.980 --> 48:51.980]  Households in our economy, our society,
[48:51.980 --> 48:53.980]  Our politics. But not only
[48:53.980 --> 48:55.980]  Has the age at first
[48:55.980 --> 48:57.980]  Marriage risen, which of course that's just
[48:57.980 --> 48:59.980]  Math. It makes a smaller number
[48:59.980 --> 49:01.980]  Of adults married. But the number of
[49:01.980 --> 49:03.980]  People who have ever been married
[49:03.980 --> 49:05.980]  Has also declined. Has marriage moved
[49:05.980 --> 49:07.980]  From being sort of culturally
[49:07.980 --> 49:09.980]  Mandatory to more optional?
[49:09.980 --> 49:11.980]  Well it's
[49:11.980 --> 49:13.980]  Definitely moved to being more optional.
[49:13.980 --> 49:15.980]  That does not mean though that it's not
[49:15.980 --> 49:17.980]  Just as valued, in fact even more
[49:17.980 --> 49:19.980]  Valued than it used to be. And it doesn't
[49:19.980 --> 49:21.980]  Mean that the majority of Americans will not
[49:21.980 --> 49:23.980]  Marry. I think that
[49:23.980 --> 49:25.980]  Probably we're getting into a situation
[49:25.980 --> 49:27.980]  Where a slightly
[49:27.980 --> 49:29.980]  Larger number of people will never marry
[49:29.980 --> 49:31.980]  Than in the past. Maybe 15
[49:31.980 --> 49:33.980]  Percent as opposed to 10
[49:33.980 --> 49:35.980]  Percent norm and 5 percent in the
[49:35.980 --> 49:37.980]  Atypical 1950s. And
[49:37.980 --> 49:39.980]  Of course we also have some people who will
[49:39.980 --> 49:41.980]  Live alone after divorcing.
[49:41.980 --> 49:43.980]  But on the other hand
[49:43.980 --> 49:45.980]  People are marrying for the first time in their
[49:45.980 --> 49:47.980]  40s, 50s, and 60s at younger
[49:47.980 --> 49:49.980]  At older ages than ever before.
[49:49.980 --> 49:51.980]  So for me the main
[49:51.980 --> 49:53.980]  Thing that I think we're facing here is that you
[49:53.980 --> 49:55.980]  Can no longer assume that married
[49:55.980 --> 49:57.980]  Couple households are
[49:57.980 --> 49:59.980]  Going to be the main places where people
[49:59.980 --> 50:01.980]  Make the major life decisions.
[50:01.980 --> 50:03.980]  Whether that's entering into
[50:03.980 --> 50:05.980]  Becoming sexually active,
[50:05.980 --> 50:07.980]  Buying a house,
[50:07.980 --> 50:09.980]  Entering long term obligations, living
[50:09.980 --> 50:11.980]  With somebody that is a romantic partner,
[50:11.980 --> 50:13.980]  Even having a child out of marriage. So we can
[50:13.980 --> 50:15.980]  No longer assume that married
[50:15.980 --> 50:17.980]  Couple households are the only place where people
[50:17.980 --> 50:19.980]  Incur obligations, make commitments,
[50:19.980 --> 50:21.980]  And need help in meeting their
[50:21.980 --> 50:23.980]  Obligations. Well you've talked about these
[50:23.980 --> 50:25.980]  Big life moments, but
[50:25.980 --> 50:27.980]  Have they responded to the fact
[50:27.980 --> 50:29.980]  That marriage has changed in this way over
[50:29.980 --> 50:31.980]  The last 50 years? Our tax laws,
[50:31.980 --> 50:33.980]  The way we build houses, the way we
[50:33.980 --> 50:35.980]  Award property in
[50:35.980 --> 50:37.980]  Courts, all kinds of things are still
[50:37.980 --> 50:39.980]  Built around marriage.
[50:39.980 --> 50:41.980]  Absolutely, absolutely.
[50:41.980 --> 50:43.980]  Just look at work family policies that
[50:43.980 --> 50:45.980]  Just assume that it's only married couples who
[50:45.980 --> 50:47.980]  Are going to have children, or
[50:47.980 --> 50:49.980]  Just ignore the fact
[50:49.980 --> 50:51.980]  That singles also have responsibility
[50:51.980 --> 50:53.980]  For aging parents.
[50:53.980 --> 50:55.980]  There are so many ways in which we are still
[50:55.980 --> 50:57.980]  Acting as though
[50:57.980 --> 50:59.980]  American families were like 1950s
[50:59.980 --> 51:01.980]  Sit-coms, instead of
[51:01.980 --> 51:03.980]  The tremendous diversity.
[51:03.980 --> 51:05.980]  Most people will marry in America, but
[51:05.980 --> 51:07.980]  Most people will spend substantial
[51:07.980 --> 51:09.980]  Portions of their adult life outside
[51:09.980 --> 51:11.980]  Marriage. It's a more fluid situation
[51:11.980 --> 51:13.980]  Than it used to be. They'll move through, they
[51:13.980 --> 51:15.980]  May cohabit for a while, they may get
[51:15.980 --> 51:17.980]  Married, they may get divorced.
[51:17.980 --> 51:19.980]  So these are the sorts of things that
[51:19.980 --> 51:21.980]  Our social policy, and even our emotional
[51:21.980 --> 51:23.980]  Expectations of family
[51:23.980 --> 51:25.980]  Life have to catch up with these changing
[51:25.980 --> 51:27.980]  Realities. Along with the long-term
[51:27.980 --> 51:29.980]  Trends, there are some short-term ones
[51:29.980 --> 51:31.980]  Too. The number of newlyweds
[51:31.980 --> 51:33.980]  Is way down. Is that going to
[51:33.980 --> 51:35.980]  Push that 50%
[51:35.980 --> 51:37.980]  Threshold down so that
[51:37.980 --> 51:39.980]  Married people are a minority of American
[51:39.980 --> 51:41.980]  Adults?
[51:41.980 --> 51:43.980]  It may, it may. It depends how long
[51:43.980 --> 51:45.980]  This recession and the aftermath of the
[51:45.980 --> 51:47.980]  Recession lasts. This is a long-term
[51:47.980 --> 51:49.980]  Trend, the decline in the
[51:49.980 --> 51:51.980]  Proportion of married couples in the
[51:51.980 --> 51:53.980]  Population, but it's been definitely
[51:53.980 --> 51:55.980]  I think exacerbated by the recession.
[51:55.980 --> 51:57.980]  But on the other hand, we may see some
[51:57.980 --> 51:59.980]  Bounce back after that, as we have in
[51:59.980 --> 52:01.980]  Previous recessions and depressions when the marriage
[52:01.980 --> 52:03.980]  Rate fell. How is who
[52:03.980 --> 52:05.980]  Gets married shaped by
[52:05.980 --> 52:07.980]  Income, education?
[52:07.980 --> 52:09.980]  Factors like that?
[52:09.980 --> 52:11.980]  Well, one of the things
[52:11.980 --> 52:13.980]  We're seeing is a tremendous
[52:13.980 --> 52:15.980]  Class divide in the
[52:15.980 --> 52:17.980]  Access to stable, satisfying
[52:17.980 --> 52:19.980]  Relationships, whether
[52:19.980 --> 52:21.980]  Married or cohabiting.
[52:21.980 --> 52:23.980]  And the marriages of college-educated
[52:23.980 --> 52:25.980]  Couples have been getting more and more
[52:25.980 --> 52:27.980]  Stable. The divorce rates have been
[52:27.980 --> 52:29.980]  Falling. But that's not so for
[52:29.980 --> 52:31.980]  High school dropouts and even
[52:31.980 --> 52:33.980]  Increasingly for high school-educated
[52:33.980 --> 52:35.980]  Couples.
[52:35.980 --> 52:37.980]  It seems that one of the issues
[52:37.980 --> 52:39.980]  Going on here is that we expect
[52:39.980 --> 52:41.980]  More of marriage than ever before,
[52:41.980 --> 52:43.980]  Both as an economic partnership and
[52:43.980 --> 52:45.980]  As an emotional partnership.
[52:45.980 --> 52:47.980]  And as it
[52:47.980 --> 52:49.980]  Becomes possible, or
[52:49.980 --> 52:51.980]  Less possible, to count
[52:51.980 --> 52:53.980]  On a man having a steady job,
[52:53.980 --> 52:55.980]  The real wages of high school
[52:55.980 --> 52:57.980]  Graduates today are $4
[52:57.980 --> 52:59.980]  An hour lower in constant dollars
[52:59.980 --> 53:01.980]  Than they were back in 1970.
[53:01.980 --> 53:03.980]  They're much more likely to experience
[53:03.980 --> 53:05.980]  Job insecurity, much less likely
[53:05.980 --> 53:07.980]  To have pensions. So a woman,
[53:07.980 --> 53:09.980]  A low-income woman making a decision
[53:09.980 --> 53:11.980]  About marrying such a man has to
[53:11.980 --> 53:13.980]  Figure out, well, what are the benefits
[53:13.980 --> 53:15.980]  Of this as compared to the possibility
[53:15.980 --> 53:17.980]  That we might divorce in the future?
[53:17.980 --> 53:19.980]  Or as compared to what would happen
[53:19.980 --> 53:21.980]  If I invested in my own education
[53:21.980 --> 53:23.980]  And earnings power? And so I
[53:23.980 --> 53:25.980]  Do think we're seeing a class divide that's quite
[53:25.980 --> 53:27.980]  Troublesome. I think that it partly
[53:27.980 --> 53:29.980]  Reflects growing economic inequality
[53:29.980 --> 53:31.980]  In our society, but of course it exacerbates
[53:31.980 --> 53:33.980]  It as well.
[53:33.980 --> 53:35.980]  Stephanie Kuntz, thanks for joining us.
[53:35.980 --> 53:37.980]  My pleasure, Ray. Thank you.
[53:45.980 --> 53:47.980]  And again, the major developments of the day.
[53:47.980 --> 53:49.980]  Republican presidential candidates spent
[53:49.980 --> 53:51.980]  Another long day hunting for votes, going
[53:51.980 --> 53:53.980]  Into the final weekend before the Iowa caucuses.
[53:53.980 --> 53:55.980]  Another poll showed Mitt Romney
[53:55.980 --> 53:57.980]  And Ron Paul atop the field.
[53:57.980 --> 53:59.980]  And an outpouring of protesters filled
[53:59.980 --> 54:01.980]  Cities across Syria,
[54:01.980 --> 54:03.980]  And government troops opened fire again.
[54:03.980 --> 54:05.980]  The opposition said at least
[54:05.980 --> 54:07.980]  22 people were killed.
[54:07.980 --> 54:09.980]  And to Hari Sreenivasan for what's on
[54:09.980 --> 54:11.980]  The NewsHour online. Hari?
[54:11.980 --> 54:13.980]  There's much more on the coming Iowa caucuses,
[54:13.980 --> 54:15.980]  Including Gwen Ifill's take on why the early
[54:15.980 --> 54:17.980]  Contests matter and what some Republican
[54:17.980 --> 54:19.980]  Voters want from the candidates.
[54:19.980 --> 54:21.980]  And Patchwork Nation's look at some GOP
[54:21.980 --> 54:23.980]  Hopefuls betting big on sparsely
[54:23.980 --> 54:25.980]  Populated counties in Iowa.
[54:25.980 --> 54:27.980]  Plus, on the rundown, view a slideshow of
[54:27.980 --> 54:29.980]  Some of the biggest news stories of 2011
[54:29.980 --> 54:31.980]  In the U.S. and around the world.
[54:31.980 --> 54:33.980]  All that and more is on our website,
[54:33.980 --> 54:35.980]  NewsHour.PBS.org. Jeff?
[54:35.980 --> 54:37.980]  And that's the NewsHour for tonight.
[54:37.980 --> 54:39.980]  On Monday, we'll look at the fallout in Egypt
[54:39.980 --> 54:41.980]  After the military raided U.S.-backed organizations.
[54:41.980 --> 54:43.980]  I'm Jeffrey Brown.
[54:43.980 --> 54:45.980]  And I'm Jim Lehrer. Washington Week
[54:45.980 --> 54:47.980]  Can be seen later this evening
[54:47.980 --> 54:49.980]  On most PBS stations.
[54:49.980 --> 54:51.980]  We'll see you online and again here
[54:51.980 --> 54:53.980]  Monday evening. Have a nice New Year's
[54:53.980 --> 54:55.980]  Holiday weekend. Thank you and
[54:55.980 --> 54:57.980]  Good night.
[54:59.980 --> 55:01.980]  Major funding for the PBS NewsHour
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